(Ed. note: Over the next two days WBR’s recruiting guru Joey Tempo will break down the Bluejays’ offseason blueprint. First up, he looks at what they lose, who’s coming back, and who’s coming in.)
Current Depth Chart
Projected Starting Lineup
G – Davion Mintz (Jr.)
G – Khyri Thomas (Sr.)
F – Mitch Ballock (So.)
F – Martin Krampelj (R-Jr.)
C – Jacob Epperson (So.)
6th Man – Ronnie Harrell (R-Sr.)
Bench – Ty-Shon Alexander (So.)
Bench – Kaleb Joseph (R-Sr.)
Bench – Damien Jefferson (R-So.)
Bench – Christian Bishop (Fr.)
Bench – Marcus Zegarowski (Fr.)
Bench – Sam Froling (Fr.)
Bench – [Open]
Walk-On – Jordan Scurry
Walk-On – Jett Canfield
Roster Analysis
Losses:
Starters Marcus Foster and Toby Hegner will depart, as well as reserves Manny Suarez and Tyler Clement. Those four seniors accounted for 37% of their points, 25% of their rebounds, and 24.4% of their assists. If Khyri Thomas joins them by jumping to the NBA, they’ll be faced with replacing 55% of their scoring, 37% of their rebounds, and 40% of their assists. That’s a lot, but the cupboard isn’t exactly bare, either.
Foster and his 19.8 points per game will be the toughest to replace, as the last month of the season shows. When he was on offensively, the Jays usually won; when he wasn’t as good, they lost. Over the last month of the season, he scored 15.6 points in their losses and 24.0 points in their wins — and took four fewer shot attempts in their losses than he did in their wins. During that stretch he only shot better than 33% from three-point range once (3-7 vs DePaul at home) after doing it in 21 of their first 26 games. And in the season’s final two games (vs Providence in the Big East Tournament and vs Kansas State in the NCAA’s) he was 3-14 from behind the arc.
Toby Hegner averaged 8.4 points and 3.1 rebounds a game, giving the Bluejays everything he had (and probably more) in a senior season that saw him suffer through injury and his mother’s cancer diagnosis. His raw numbers will likely be wildly exceeded by whichever combination of big men take his minutes next season, but his intangibles and leadership will be missed. The same can be said for Tyler Clement, who carved out a niche role as a third-string point guard and gave the Bluejays quality minutes almost every time he took the floor.
Returnees:
Creighton’s expectations heading into 2018-19 hinge on Khyri Thomas‘ decision. He will obviously head to the NBA combine and see how he matches up, and if he projects as a Top 25 pick he’ll likely forgo his final season. It’s not the obvious, no-brainer decision that fellow Omaha native Justin Patton faced a year ago, but if guaranteed millions are on the table, it’d be difficult to advise him not to take it.
If Thomas does stay, I don’t think he would hurt his pro potential as a 3 & D guy. The 2018 draft has some high-end talent, and more than next year’s draft projects to, so in fact with a good senior year Thomas could slide up into next year’s lottery. Oh, and he’d have his degree as well, which it’s been reported is important to his family.
As the two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, his defensive pedigree (and what the Jays would lose without him) goes without saying. But he grew into a dependable scorer in his junior year, as well, finishing second on the team with 15.1 points per game and was their second-best three point shooter both in terms of made shots (62) and percentage (41.1%).
Ronnie Harrell will be entering his fifth year at Creighton after redshirting his first season. The big question surrounding Harrell: do you start him or move him back to sixth-man role? He was having a breakout season as the team’s sixth man prior to Martin Krampelj’s injury, and saw his numbers decrease dramatically across the board after moving into the starting lineup.
Here are his line’s Pre-Krampelj injury (as a sixth-man) and Post-Krampelj injury (as a starter):
Pre (18 games) :: 8.1ppg – 7.0rpg – 2.5apg – 51.7% from field
Post (12 games) :: 6.2ppg – 5.1rpg – 2.8apg – 40.0% from field
That’s a combination of both playing without the rim threat Krampelj presented defenses and playing heavier minutes, but it’s concerning nonetheless.
Mitch Ballock took the loss to Kansas State harder than anyone on the team, according to multiple reports. After a tremendous start that included a 22-point burst against then-#23 UCLA and 13 points against Nebraska, he struggled in the middle of the season. By the final month, however, he was one of CU’s most consistent players and scored in double figures in four of their final six games and led them in scoring with 16 against K-State. I think he’s still playing a bit sped up, and if he can slow down I think his shot starts to fall at the clip that those at practice say he can hit them. People close to the program tell me he is the clear cut leader of the team, even if Thomas comes back. Hopefully a healthy Martin Krampelj pushes him back to the more comfortable wing position.
Ty-Shon Alexander is going to make a big step this off-season, in my opinion. His game reminds me of Nate Funk; I’m not saying he will be as good as Funk, but I think he can make the kind of jump Nate did between his freshman and sophomore year. He showed a cold-blooded streak as a three-point shooter, hitting tough shots on the road that belied his freshman status, and surprisingly the final numbers show that 65.8% of his shots were three’s. If Thomas leaves I can see him getting a bulk of the minutes at the 2. The hope is that he and Ballock step up big this spring and become the team’s leaders on and off the court.
Damien Jefferson, who sat out this season after transferring from New Mexico, will have a role on the team, especially if Thomas is gone, but he needs to improve his shooting stroke.
Jacob Epperson needs to add weight to be more effective on the block, but he showed marked improvement from his first game in late January to the NCAA Tourney. In 12 games, he averaged 6.3 points and 2.9 rebounds, and made 69.4% of his shots and all four of his three-point attempts. Epperson was almost automatic on shots at or around the rim; 69.4% of his total shots came from point-blank range, and he made them 79.4% of the time.
He averaged just under one block per game, and impressively, pressured opposing shooters without fouling — he was whistled for 18 total fouls in the 12 games he played.
Davion Mintz improved towards the end of the year on offense, putting up some of his best numbers over the final six weeks. He scored in double figures seven times in 2017-18, and three of those came in the last five games. He had six or more assists in a game seven times, and again, three of those came in the last five games. His season assist-to-turnover ratio of 3:1 was stellar, and over the last five games of the season he had 21 assists and six turnovers.
With that said, he had the lowest field goal percentage on shots at the rim of anyone on the team — at 48.1%, he was the only Bluejay to shoot worse than 60% on those shots. That’s problematic because over a third of his shots came at the rim. Compare it to, say, Ty-Shon Alexander, who took just 17% of his shots at the rim but made them 80.0% of the time or Ronnie Harrell who took 45% of his shots at the rim and made them 60.0% of the time and you get the picture: Mintz gets into the paint a lot, but he’s not very good at finishing. The numbers don’t lie.
Combined with the fact that his defense grades out as sub-optimal, and Mintz is the starter most likely to see his starting job challenged by a newcomer in 2018-19. Freshman Marcus Zegarowski had an outstanding senior season (more on him below), and his natural point guard abilities make him easy to envision as a starter if not from day one, then certainly by Thanksgiving. Would Mintz be happy playing the ‘2’? Would he be happy splitting minutes at the ‘1’ with a freshman and at the 2/3 with Ty-Shon, Tazz, Mitch, and perhaps even Jefferson? We may find out.
Kaleb Joseph was expected to be the point guard of the future, but after a hamstring injury sidelined him during preseason practice, he was passed over on the depth chart and played sparingly. Does he have a role on this team going forward? Joseph could be the first domino to fall in terms of roster turnover.
Martin Krampelj suffered a torn ACL in January, and after surgery, should be ready to go back this fall. If there’s a concern, it’s that this is his third major knee surgery. Is this is a chronic issue for him? Hopefully he can get back and replicate the form he was at in January, because he could be an All-Big East type presence on the front line if he does — and paired with Epperson and the freshmen newcomers, give the Jays their most depth in the frontcourt in years.
Newcomers:
Marcus Zegarowski is due to arrive on campus in June. He had an amazing end to his high school career, carrying his team in the Prep School championship. I found it telling he made the trip to Charlotte to cheer on the team during the NCAAs. He seems to have a great relationship with Mac and Murphy. Not sure how his finishing in the paint will be as a freshman but he seems to be much more of what Mac wants from that spot than anyone else currently on the roster.
Christian Bishop seems to have grown some his senior year. His upside is sky-high, but he’s rail thin. He’s an obvious red-shirt candidate as he could add weight and learn the system as he will be playing behind a number of guys already.
From Sam Froling‘s pictures and video he looks thinner than his fellow Aussie Jacob Epperson did when he arrived at CU. He’s very skilled and moves well but I worry he would encounter the same issues Epperson did when he arrived. If the Jays are able to add a grad transfer big I think he is a strong red-shirt candidate as well.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at potential grad transfer targets, and other potential targets the Jays could be after.
