Through two games, the Jays are averaging ten turnovers a game, they’re shooting 86.9% from the free throw line, and their opponents are averaging just 8 free throws attempted. They’re +15 on the boards. And they’re 2-0.
Yet there’s a sense of unease around the team the belies those nice statistics. There were some pretty perturbed people walking out of the Qwest on Sunday who were disappointed there wasn’t more improvement between Friday and today. I’ll get to that in a bit. For the moment, though, I want to ask you an honest question: does Creighton win this game a year ago? I say there’s absolutely ZERO chance they would have. None. Nada. Zilch. They do not win this game, or a game like this, a year ago. They do not. And why do I feel so strongly about that?
Well, for starters, we saw a team with most of these same players lose exactly this type of game quite often last year: Dayton, Michigan, New Mexico, and George Mason, just to name four off the top of my head.
A big reason why they won a close game late, unlike the failures to do so a year ago, is that they’re getting to the line more often, and then making a significantly higher percentage of free throws once they’re on the line. Last season, the Jays went an average of 14-20 from the line each game, or 71.6%. This year, they’re averaging a 26-30 line, which is 86.9%. Its early yet and they haven’t gone on the road, but that’s a drastic improvement. Even if that improvement eventually drops in half over course of the season, they’re still significantly better than a year ago. How many close games would they have won a year ago with better free throw shooting? Missed free throws late played significant roles in at least two of them. The Jays were 29-33 from the line today; a year ago, their high water mark both in free throws made and attempted came against Nebraska, when they were 26-32. They made as many as 20 just seven other times, and made 10 or fewer 10 times.
Another reason is that they’re rebounding much, much better. Cupcakes Florida A&M, Savannah State, and Houston Baptist all outrebounded the Jays in the non-conference last year; this year, the Jays outrebounded Alabama State by 9 on Friday night and Northern Arizona by 6 today. That’s another significant improvement. Now, they’ll surely have games where they get outboarded as the season goes along, but early last season against similar competition to what they saw this weekend, the Jays were manhandled on the glass while this year they took care of business like Elvis in the ’70s.
This is not to say there aren’t areas for concern, because there are, and I think its these areas where the people who were upset after the game are focusing their energy. Outside shooting is one; the Jays were 5-22 on Sunday after going 7-16 on Friday night. They were 33.6% from long range a year ago, and after two games this year, they’re just slightly under that at 31.6%. However, that’s with their best (and most consistent) three-point shooter, Ethan Wragge, on the bench with a foot injury during both games. When he comes back, that percentage could easily improve on last year’s mark; as it is, a good number of the misses so far have been open looks that came within the offense, and its probably a fair assumption that a few more of those (if not more) will go in as the season progresses, too. So I’m not worried about this, at least not yet.
Perimeter defense is another concern. Coach Mac has indicated he intends to pack the defense around the hoop from 15 feet and in, to cut down on easy layups and mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, early in the season as players are still learning where they’re supposed to be within that scheme, some opposing shooters have had open looks. Likewise, they’ve struggled to deal with ball screens. Both of those led to Northern Arizona making an absolutely absurd seven straight three-pointers on seven consecutive possessions as they turned a 15-point deficit around. Again though, I think its correctable once players figure out where they’re supposed to be within the scheme and get comfortable in game situations running the defense. They’re probably not going to be a great — or even above-average — perimeter defensive team, at least not this year. But given the other parts of their game that they’re executing well on, I’d settle for average, and I suspect they’ll get there.
At the risk of sounding really really ridiculously optimistic (you thought I was going to quote Zoolander and say “good looking” there, didn’t you? Well, you’re wrong. Now, where were we? Oh yes. Optimism.) if it wasn’t for that absurd seven-threes-in-seven-possessions deal, the Jays were well on their way to making the score pretty ugly because of their ability to get to the line and convert. Indeed, if not for that crazy set of possessions, the likes of which I’m pretty confident we won’t see again this season, the Jays win by 20 or more.
When you don’t turn it over and force the other team to turn it over twice as much, that’s good. When you outrebound teams by solid margins, that’s good. When you make more free throws than the other team attempts, that’s good. When you make those free throws at a nearly 90% clip, that’s good. When your perimeter defense leaves some shooters wide open occasionally, that’s bad. And when you make less than a third of your three-point shots, that’s bad.
But right now, two games in, the good outweighs the bad. And for an 18-16 team with a new coaching staff implementing new schemes, that’s a pretty good place to be.
You bet.
