Before the season, many prognosticators pegged the Jays to finish in third place behind Wichita State and Missouri State. Following home losses to both of those teams in the last week, that’s precisely where the Jays find themselves: third place, a clear notch behind the best two teams in the league.
So why are people so upset about being in third place, if that’s where most people figured they’d be at? My sense is that its how they arrived at their current position, not the fact that they reside there.
Sometime between October and the present, a wave of optimism overtook the program and many fans — myself included — thought the Jays might have a shot at finishing higher than they were picked. Whether it was confidence in Greg McDermott’s coaching, the addition of Gregory Echenique, the seeming weakness of the league as a whole, or something else entirely, gradually over the last two-and-a-half months fans thought it might be possible to topple one or both of the teams picked ahead of them.
After six league games including two against the top of the league, they find themselves right where most of us expected them to be: in third place. They are who we thought they were, if only we remember that we thought that in the first place.
The fact that they had leads — and looked better than, or as good as, for huge stretches against both Missouri State and Wichita State does not change the fact that both of those teams are better than the Jays. The starting-five of each of the three teams may be comparable, but the depth of the Bears and Shockers is far superior to anything the Jays can run out there. Hence, in both games the Jays had early leads, but in the second half when the bench comes into play in an emotional, tough conference game, their opponents came back to win.
Missouri State and Wichita State are both better than the Jays. They both beat the Jays in Omaha rather convincingly, so its not really debatable. They’re better. That’s the bad news.
The good news: Creighton is arguably better than every other team in the league, already holds road wins over three of the other seven teams, and with a win Sunday in Terre Haute can put themselves in excellent position to finish as the third best team in the league.
Bradley, who the Jays have yet to play, is 0-6 in the league and 6-11 overall. Illinois State is also 0-6 in the league, and the Jays play them once more (at home). Drake is 2-4 in the league, has struggled mightily even in their two wins, and the Jays play them twice yet. Evansville is 2-4 in the league and was on the ropes against the Jays Sunday before a late, and fruitless, comeback, and they have to come to Omaha yet. Southern Illinois is 3-3 but as the Jays saw in Carbondale, are a young team — and the Jays have already played and won in Carbondale. Northern Iowa is also 3-3, but two of those losses came at the buzzer; they’re the Jays only real challenge for third place. Indiana State at 5-1 is a paper tiger, as far as I’m concerned — they’ve yet to play either Wichita State or Missouri State, and they played UNI at home — their record is a reflection of their schedule, not their talent.
After six games, it seems clear who the top five teams are, and who the bottom five are. Creighton, Indiana State and Northern Iowa will duke it out the rest of the season for positions three, four and five. That’s where the Jays are. They’re a good, not a great, team, who can play great for stretches of games but doesn’t seem capable of being great for 40 minutes. That’s good enough to beat the Redbirds and the Purple Aces and the Salukis, but as the last week has shown, its not good enough to beat the Shockers or the Bears, even at home.
They’re the third best team in the league, which is precisely where most people thought they’d be. That they’ve shown growth, improvement and encouraging moments — the things that got some of us thinking they might be better than they are — is not something to be discouraged about. After three mostly stagnant years, to see growth and improvement and to have the belief that the team will be better in February than they were in October is a solid cornerstone to build on.
With one hot weekend in March, they can still build on that cornerstone yet this year.
You bet.
