It’s been a weird NCAA Tournament week, hasn’t it? The news that Creighton is moving to the Big East has threatened to overshadow the competition on the court, and it’s made for odd feelings during Thursday’s games. Should I be happy that Wichita State won, since they aren’t in CU’s conference anymore? Or should I have paid more attention to the Butler game? All this Big East stuff is conflicting, and confusing, and it’ll take some getting used to. I’ll get there. I’m not there yet.
Ordinarily, Jays fans would have been consumed by talk of Friday’s 2nd Round opponent, the Cincinnati Bearcats. Attention was diverted mid-week by Big East talk, but now it’s Thursday, and the focus is back on the NCAA Tournament. Good thing, too; the Bearcats are a pretty tough team for a double-digit seed, starting 12-0 and rising as high as #11 in the polls before their first loss in mid-December. They’re a #10 seed because they went just 10-11 the rest of the way, including losing eight of their final 14 games, and staggered into the tournament despite an early exit in the Big East Tourney, losing 63-43 to Georgetown.
The Bearcats are one of the best defensive teams in the country, but have trouble scoring the ball. They’ve given up the 24th fewest points per game (58.8) and are among the nation’s leaders in field goal percentage defense (15th, 38.5%), three-point percentage defense (26th, 30%), and blocked shots per game (6th, 6.2). They outrebound opponents by 6.5 a game, 19th most in the country.
The Bearcats are also one of the worst offensive teams, ranking 196th in points per game (66.6), 303rd in field goal shooting percentage (40.2%), 249th in three-point shooting percentage (31.7%), 296th in free throw shooting percentage (64.9%), and 181st in assist-to-turnover ratio (0.95:1).
When looking at a team you’re not familiar with, I always find it useful to try and compare them to a team you are familiar with. In examining those numbers, and from watching a handful of Cincinnati games on TV this year, the Jays’ opponent they remind me the most of is … dun dun dun … Wichita State.
A more extreme version of Wichita State, to be sure, but an apt comparison nonetheless. The Bearcats play better defense, are a bit better at pressuring the ball in the backcourt, and they struggle to score even more than the Shockers do. They’ll play aggressive man-to-man defense, try to get second and third chances offensively to make up for their poor shooting percentages, and attempt to get their guards in position to drive the lane.
If the Bearcats are able to muddy the game up and keep it in the 60s, it will probably come down to one or two possessions — much like the first and third games with Wichita State this year (the one down there, and the one in St. Louis) or the game with Alabama in last year’s NCAA Tournament (another defense-first squad). If Creighton pushes tempo, doesn’t turn it over, crashes the boards, and gets the game into the 70s or even the 80s, it will probably be a 10-15 point win for the Jays — much like the middle game with Wichita State this year (the one in Omaha).
The Bearcats have not scored more than 68 points in a game since mid-January, and in their losses, they typically go through one or two costly droughts where the opponent goes on a long run and blows the game open. Their lack of interior scorers contributes to that; their offense revolves almost entirely around three players, all guards, and when you make them settle for jump shots, they struggle to score.
That’s where they differ from the Shockers. Cincinnati’s best scorers are their wings, but they haven’t shown a propensity to “go off” for huge games far above their average, even against lesser opponents. They don’t exhibit much offensive movement without the ball, and their guards tend to over-dribble and then jack up long three-pointers late in the shot clock.
Sean Kilpatrick leads them in scoring (16.9 points per game), but is just 80-261 from three-point range (30%). Likewise, second-leading scorer Cashmere Wright (12.5 points) is only 70-195 from downtown, and JaQuon Parker (11.2 points) just 40-98. No one else averages more than five points a game, and no one else has more than 13 made threes on the season. Kilpatrick and Parker aren’t terribly quick off the dribble, and struggle to get to the rim. Wright had that ability, but a midseason knee injury robbed him of much of his quickness.
Therefore, the key to the game seems to be for Austin Chatman to control the ball (and thus, the tempo), and for Gregory Echenique to REBOUND. Cincinnati will pressure the ball, perhaps end to end, so Chatman will need a game like he had in the MVC Championship against similar pressure defense, where he had seven assists and one turnover in 36 minutes. The Bearcats can’t outscore Creighton in a game where the Jays get hot, but if they can get buckets in transition off of Creighton turnovers, or get offensive rebounds that turn into easy second-chance buckets, they can keep it close and relatively low-scoring, exactly where they want it.
About the Bearcats: Cincinnati is making its 27th NCAA Tournament appearance overall and its 17th in the past 22 years … UC is 43-25 all-time in the tourney, with two national titles (1961 and 1962), eight regional finals appearances and six final four appearances … Sean Kilpatrick leads UC’s attack averaging 16.9 points per game, and ranked fourth in the Big East in scoring (17.3) and was second in three-pointers made (2.52) … Cashmere Wright is the only player in school history to tally at least 1,300 career points as well as 475 assists and 175 steals, and owns the school record for steals (198) and games played (138) in a career … Wright has battled through injuries this season, but has led the Bearcats in scoring in three of the past four games while averaging 12.5 points, 2.0 assists and 1.3 steals; over that four-game stretch Wright is shooting 47.2 percent from the field (17 of 36) and 50.0 percent from three-point range (10 of 20) … JaQuon Parker has increased his scoring output over the last nine games, averaging 13.2 points, the second most on the team during the stretch … Cheikh Mbodj ranked third in the league in blocks (2.58) during the regular season and was 18th in the nation (2.57 through March 14) … The Bearcats have 204 blocks this season, third-most in school history.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton is making its 18th NCAA Tournament appearance, and ninth in the last 15 years … The Bluejays are 10-18 all-time in NCAA action, including a 7-10 record in its first game … Thanks to an NCAA Tournament win over Alabama last March, the Creighton men’s basketball team has now won a postseason game in a school-record five straight seasons, besting the previous mark of three in a row from 1962-64 … Creighton owns a 7-10 record all-time in the Midwest Region … Creighton’s No. 7 seed is their second-best seed ever, trailing only the No. 6 seed in 2002-03 … Since the NCAA began seeding all the teams in 1979, MVC teams are 4-3 as the seventh seed, including a 3-0 mark in their first game, and the MVC’s last No. 7 seed, Wichita State, reached the Sweet 16 … Creighton went 5-3 against teams that made the 2013 NCAA Tournament, going 1-0 against Wisconsin, Akron and Cal, 2-1 against Wichita State, and 0-1 against Saint Mary’s and Boise State. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went 5-8 against NCAA Tournament teams, including wins vs. Iowa State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Marquette and Villanova … Creighton also went 4-1 against NIT qualifiers.
The RUN-DMD Show: With 14 points on Friday, Doug McDermott can become the nation’s first player since Stephen Curry and Lester Hudson in 2008 & 2009 to score 800 or more points in consecutive seasons. And with 15 points, he can set Creighton’s single-season points record, and also take over the national lead in points scored for the year.
The Last Time They Played: On December 28, 1989, Creighton played Cincinnati in the Rainbow Classic in Hawaii. The Jays blew a 17-point second half lead, including a 58-47 cushion with 5:11 to play, as the Bearcats rallied for a 60-58 win. Cincinnati’s Louis Banks hit a 10-foot turnaround jumper with five seconds remaining to give the Bearcats their first, and only, lead of the game, capping a 13-0 run to end the game.
The Series: Despite both school’s history in the Missouri Valley, they’ve somewhat surprisingly met just twice previously, as their tenures did not overlap. Creighton is 0-2 all-time vs. Cincinnati, with both match-ups taking place on neutral courts; the aforementioned loss, as well as a 66-46 loss in the 1962 NCAA Tournament in a game played in Manhattan, Kansas.
Gratuitous Linkage: The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul Daugherty writes about a player who could be the X-Factor on Friday, Cashmere Wright.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: The only game Creighton has ever played on March 22 came in 2010, a 73-55 win over Fairfield in the CIT. Kenny Lawson Jr. and Justin Carter combined for 33 points and 18 rebounds in a game played at the Omaha Civic Auditorium. The victory would wind up being the final win of the Dana Altman Era, as the Jays lost two nights later to Missouri State to end their season.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: You. Bet.
The Bottom Line: Creighton gets enough threes from Jahenns Manigat, Ethan Wragge and Avery Dingman to keep the defense honest on Doug McDermott, Gregory Echenique cleans up the glass, and Creighton advances.
Jays 68, Cincinnati 59
