[dropcap]In[/dropcap] the aftermath of a second-straight heartbreaking loss, the Bluejays find themselves 0-5 in the Big East. It looks like an insurmountable hole given the strength of the league and the fact that the toughest stretch of Creighton’s schedule is still to come.
With that said, it’s not an impossible task. You don’t even have to look very far to find examples of teams who did exactly what Creighton will attempt to do starting tonight.
A year ago, St. John’s started 0-5 in the Big East — with the final two losses coming in a two-point game to DePaul and a one-point game vs. Providence. They were coming off two close, heartbreaking losses, were winless in the league, and were left for dead. And then they won nine of their next ten games, losing only to Creighton in Omaha when Doug McDermott sank a three-pointer in the final moments, and wound up finishing in third place with an NIT bid.
Another team near (though certainly not dear) to Creighton’s hearts, Baylor, started out 1-6 in the Big XII a year ago, including two losses by two points each. They took a bit longer to rally, sitting at 2-8 in the league before going 7-1 down the home stretch. The Bears, of course, made the NCAA Tournament. We all know how that went.
I know what you’re saying. There’s extenuating circumstances here! St. John’s was the Most Talented Team in the Big East. It was only a matter of time before they turned it around. Baylor’s Kenny Chery battled an injury in the middle of the season which coincided with their rough conference start; his return jump-started their rally. Sure. Those things are true! But if you’re looking for a glimmer of hope in an ever-darkening tunnel, there it is: Two examples of teams that got off to similarly horrible starts but rallied to make the postseason.
Ken Pomeroy doesn’t think that glimmer amounts to a hill of beans. His website, KenPom.com, lists each team’s schedule and uses predictive metrics to determine a score prediction and percent chance of victory for each team. It’s not looking so great for our Creighton Bluejays:
That’s two wins, one of them Saturday against Providence and the other when Marquette visits here on February 14. To be fair, he also lists Creighton with a 50% chance of winning at DePaul (but losing that coin flip), and there’s four other games with a better than 35% chance of winning (generally considered a one-possession game using his metrics). Everything else? Double-digit losses. If the percentages hold true, that’s a 2-16 conference record. If the lone 50/50 game goes Creighton’s way and they steal one other game, they finish 4-14, and that’s where his “human” prediction pegs them.
So about that game Saturday night. The Friars come in at 3-2 in the league, and boast two of the league’s best players. They also have the length and athleticism to bother Creighton like few teams can — a year ago, they were the only team to beat them twice and they did it by controlling the tempo, guarding the perimeter, and rebounding the heck out of the ball. The gameplan, and the execution, was similar on New Years Eve.
Guard Kris Dunn is averaging 13.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 2.6 steals per game. He leads the Big East — and all of Division 1 — in assists, and ranks 10th in the country in steals while leading the conference in that category. According to Rob Anderson’s excellent-as-always game notes, the only previous player to play against Creighton the same season he led the nation in assists was Oklahoma State’s Doug Gottlieb, who averaged 8.79 assists per game in 1998-99. Creighton defeated the Cowboys, 66-60, on December 20, 1998, with Gottlieb dishing out just six assists…and one extremely costly turnover.
Senior LaDontae Henton is leading the Friar offense and the Big East in scoring, averaging 21.2 points per game. The Jays are intimately aware of his explosive scoring ability, as he hung 35 on them in Providence. They’re not alone, though. He’s scored 21 or more points in 10 of the 18 games this season, including 38 versus Notre Dame (November 23), 29 versus Yale (November 28), 27 against UMass (December 20), 25 versus Miami (December 22), and 28 against Marquette (January 3).
With his 35 points in that game, Henton became one of just six players to score 30+ against Creighton in the Greg McDermott Era. Going back further, no player has scored 30 or more twice in the same season against Creighton since Bradley star Hersey Hawkins had 35 in Omaha on February 18, 1988, then added 38 more on March 6, 1988 in Peoria.
Creighton and Providence have met five times in the last 365 days, and each game has been a battle. This one is likely to be the same. Will the annual Pink Out and the super-charged energy in the building that goes along with that event be enough to finally get Creighton over the hump? I sure hope so.
Quick Notes on the Friars:
- Sophomore guard Kris Dunn was named Big East Player of the Week on Monday after averaging 20.5 points, 7.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 40.5 minutes in two Friar wins. First, Dunn registered a career-high 25 points, including 20 in the second half to fuel the Friar comeback as they earned a 66-62 road win at Butler on January 6. He also had eight rebounds, six assists and two blocks in the game. Then on January 10, Dunn had 16 points, nine assists and three steals in the Friars’ 60-57 overtime win over Georgetown. Most importantly, he scored eight of the team’s 10 points in overtime.
- The Friars were defeated by St. John’s, 83-70, on Wednesday at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center. They fell to 13-5 (3-2 Big East), while St. John’s improved to 12-4 (1-3 Big East) on the season. Dunn recorded his fourth double-double on the season scoring 17 points and contributing 10 assists, while Henton led all scorers with 22 points.
- This is the second straight season the Friars have brought a top-10 scorer into CenturyLink Center Omaha, as last year Bryce Cotton ranked ninth nationally in scoring at 21.8 points per game. Cotton was scoreless in the first half last season in Omaha, but finished with 23 points. Besides Cotton, the only other previous visiting players to come to CenturyLink Center Omaha and finish top-10 nationally in scoring at year’s end were BYU’s Jimmer Fredette in 2010-11 (averaged 28.9 ppg., held to 13) and Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks (averaged 23.7 ppg., held to 16 points).
Bluejay Bytes:
- The last time Creighton lost back-to-back games on shots in the final 12 seconds came in November of 2008, when it fell to UALR with 6.4 seconds left and to Nebraska with 2.7 seconds left. That squad responded with nine straight wins and would finish 27-8 en route to a share of the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title.
- Despite the two losses in the last week, Greg McDermott is still 5-3 in one-point games on the Creighton sideline. CU entered last week 12-1 in its previous 13 one-point games, and had been 22-6 in one-point games since 2000, prior to the last two losses.
- This is the first time that Creighton has played consecutive one-point games since defeating Evansville (93-92 in OT) and Indiana State (61-60) in February of 2012; they’ve not played three straight one-point games since the 1974-75 (!) season.
- Prior to this week, Creighton had not lost one-point games in the same month since February of 1996, and those weren’t consecutive. The last time that happened? January of 1980. That skid also started on January 10th (the same day of the Seton Hall game), but was ended by a home win on January 17th (Saturday’s game date). Creighton has never lost three consecutive one-point games.
The Series:
This will be the fifth meeting between Creighton and Providence in the last 365 days. Providence owns a 9-5 lead in a series that dates back to 1961, but the Bluejays lead 3-2 in Omaha.
Greg McDermott is 1-3 against Providence and Ed Cooley. Cooley is 3-2 against the Bluejays, as his Fairfield team fell on March 22, 2010 in a CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament game contested at the Omaha Civic Auditorium.
The Last Time They Played:
On December 31, Providence jumped out to a 14-4 lead six minutes into the Big East opener for both teams. Creighton came back, took the lead at one point, and trailed by just four at the break. Then Providence used a 12-4 run over the first six minutes of the second stanza, and the resulting 12 point lead was the final margin of victory. LaDontae Henton proved unstoppable as he scored 35 points on 12-21 shooting while grabbing eight rebounds for good measure, and played the full 40 minutes. The Friars won 65-53.
Gratuitous Linkage:
Daniel James writes that with UCONN’s absence, St. John’s is Providence’s new rival in the Big East. They’ve played hotly contested games, they’re fighting for the same recruits, and they’ve got history.
What the Other Side is Saying:
The Bluejays find themselves 9-9 overall, 0-5 in Big East play and are making their 9th place preseason finish in the Big Coaches Poll look like a potential reality. And when you dissect their stats compared to the rest of the league, the numbers are alarming for head coach Greg McDermott. Creighton is last in overall offense, they’re 8th in 3-point shooting and they have one of the worst defensive field goal percentages in the Big East.
But trust me, Ed Cooley does not want to hear about any of those stats. He realizes that it is difficult to win on the road in this league and despite their inconsistent play in the post-Doug McDermott era thus far, the Bluejays still boast one of the better home court advantages in the nation.
Focus. That is the key word I’ve heard from the coaching staff the past couple of days. That’s the key to the game. That’s the game plan.
“Friars Look to Steal Road Win at Creighton“, Vin Parise, CoxHub
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On January 17, 1985, Benoit Benjamin had 43 points, 16 rebounds and 10 blocked shots in a 96-90 win over Southern Illinois at the Civic Auditorium. He made 18 of 23 field goal attempts and seven of eight free throws, and already had 21 points at halftime to surpass his season average.
Vernon Moore added 19 points and 12 assists for Creighton, making it the rare game where multiple Bluejays had a double-double.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
All season long, during the video that plays when the team takes the court, my wife has been amused watching Will Artino stifle a laugh/smile — winding up with a huge smirk — as Devin Brooks shows off his dance moves to OneRepublic’s “Love Runs Out.” Even though I’m usually in full-on Intense Game Face Mode at that point, I have to admit it is kind of funny seeing Big Swag barely able to hold back a smile.
Speaking of pregame hilarity, she’s taken to referring to Toby Hegner as “Tiger Beat” because of the clip of him on the video board during the starting lineup announcement where he turns his head slowly and stares with the sort of longing look usually reserved for movie posters of cheesy romantic comedies or album covers for teen heartthrobs (or, you know, Tiger Beat photo shoots). We’ve seen it before every game, and it still slays us every time. Somehow, even though you know it’s coming, it still sneaks up on you. Here’s to pregame hilarity!
The Bottom Line:
Creighton gets it done tonight. I know that’s a pick at odds with most of my WBR colleagues, but I think the Jays find a way tonight.
Bluejays 65, Friars 62
