[dropcap]Wednesday[/dropcap] night, both Creighton and Villanova took care of business by winning their Big East Conference opener, setting up a rarity in major conference basketball: a battle of undefeated teams in conference play. It hasn’t happened in a major conference in almost eight years — 15-0 Wake Forest met 16-0 Clemson in an ACC battle on January 17, 2009.
This is how rare it is: it’s only happened once before in the entire history of the Big East, when #5 Georgetown played at #10 Seton Hall on January 3, 1989. The Pirates won 94-86 in front of their first-ever sellout at the old Meadowlands Arena, a rambunctious crowd that coach PJ Carlesimo recalled fondly on the game’s 25th anniversary. Almost 30 years later, people still talk about that game, as one Seton Hall fan extraordinaire told us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/botskey/status/814528801011077120
The crowd for Saturday afternoon’s game in Omaha will hopefully be just as wild. It will be big: the game’s been sold out for weeks, and when a limited number of SRO tickets went on sale Thursday morning, they were gone in less than half an hour.
It’s no secret I’m a huge nerd for the history of Creighton hoops, and in looking for something to compare Saturday’s game to…you can’t find anything. It’s a one of a kind. Arguably the best team in college basketball (Villanova’s been ranked #1 in both polls for four consecutive weeks, and ranks among the top three in every major computer metric) with perhaps the best player in college basketball (Josh Hart is among the two or three favorites for the Wooden Award), coming to town with a 19-game winning streak, and defending a national championship from last March to boot. They take on a Creighton team that’s spent five straight weeks ranked in the top ten, is also undefeated, and features arguably the best point guard in the country.
What tops that?
#1 DePaul is the only other top-ranked foe to visit Omaha, as the Blue Demons defeated an average Jays squad 84-73 on January 28, 1980. DePaul had been to the Final Four the year before — losing to Larry Bird’s Indiana State Sycamores in the national semifinal before their famous title tilt against Michigan State — and with most of that team intact, entered the game 17-0. In front of a sold-out Civic Auditorium, All-American Mark Aguirre scored 20 points and grabbed 12 rebounds to help secure win number 18. They’d eventually get to 25-0 before losing at Notre Dame late in the season and earn the first of three consecutive #1 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but lost in the first round of the tourney to UCLA. The Jays finished 16-12 (9-7 in the MVC) and missed the postseason.
The 1978 MVC Title Game against Bird’s Sycamores is often cited as the biggest home win in school history, but as amazing as that 54-52 win was, it was the year BEFORE the Trees’ national runner-up season and they were unranked entering the game. When they visited Omaha the following winter with a #5 ranking, they dispatched a Jays team struggling to stay over .500 rather easily, 90-80 — Bird scored 29, and 20 in the second-half alone, making nine straight shots at one point.
The highest-ranked team CU has beaten at home is #4 Arizona State in December of 1963, though the age of that game leaves it out of most contemporary Bluejay fans’ memories. That ’63 Jays squad wound up winning a game in the NCAA Tourney, but they were unheralded at that point in the season and the win was a massive upset.
Creighton’s never played an opponent this good at home while also fielding a great team of their own. There’s no parallel. It has all the makings of one of the most memorable afternoons in Creighton basketball history. And if they can find a way to actually win the damn thing?
There will be ten hours before midnight to celebrate, my friends. Pace yourselves. There’s no truth to the old wives tale that epic victory tweets in the Morning After are a hangover cure.
***
Villanova lost Ryan Arcidiacano and Daniel Ochefu from last year’s national championship team, which you’d think would be a bad thing, but they return everyone else, and they’re all improved over a year ago. To wit: Josh Hart led them in scoring last year at 15.5 points per game, and has upped his average to 20.5 points this year while shooting at a better clip from everywhere on the floor — his shooting percentages overall (55%), from three point range (40%), and at the line (82%) are all higher than a year ago. He’s the best player on the nation’s best team, sits atop Ken Pomeroy’s KPOY rankings by a huge margin, and if he doesn’t win the Wooden and/or Naismith Awards, he’ll be among the two or three finalists.
He does everything — in addition to averaging 20.5 points, he pulls down 6.5 boards a game and averages 3.5 assists. His performances in December have been something else even by his standards; beginning with a win over St. Joseph’s where Hart had a triple-double with 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, he’s had one monster game after another. Among the highlights are 21 points, 8 boards and 3 assists against LaSalle; 37 points, 11 rebounds and four assists against #23 Notre Dame; and 25 points, 6 rebounds and a pair of assists against DePaul.
Creighton knows all about that, having seen it first-hand. Hart was a monster in Omaha a year ago, scoring 25 points on 10-14 shooting with five rebounds, two assists and three steals in 33 minutes. The Jays had no answer for the 6’5” guard, and I’m not sure they do this year either. He’s that tough of a match-up, and that good.
What makes Villanova the nation’s top team is Hart’s supporting cast. If and when Phil Booth returns from injury, they’ll have the best seven-man rotation in the country. Four of the Wildcats’ five starters shoot better than 40% from three-point range, all six of their top players average at least one made three per game, and they average 9.6 made threes per game as a team. Deep breaths.
All seven of their regular rotation guys shoot better than 40% from the field, and their top four scorers are all better than 80% free throw shooters. More deep breaths.
They’re not a big team in the traditional sense, with only one player taller than 6’8” in their rotation (6’9”, 240-pound senior Darryl Reynolds). He’s the Wildcats only true post player, and averages 5.6 rebounds and nearly a block per game. But he can’t play all 40 minutes, so what happens when he goes to the bench? This in-depth feature on FanSided explains their “Wing-C” approach, with 6’6” wing Eric Paschall playing center when Reynolds is on the bench. The tl;dr version? Villanova forces more turnovers, runs more in transition, and has outscored teams at a rate of +72 points per 100 possessions with Paschall on the floor as opposed to not. And defensively?
“Lineups with Paschall at center have actually done an incredible job protecting the basket — opposing teams have only hit 24 of 48 total logged shots within five feet of the rim. This is significantly better than the team has done in all other minutes — as can be seen in the graph, non-death lineups have allowed teams to hit 64.15 percent of their shots within five feet of the rim. Paschall himself sports a 3.3 percent block rate — a solid mark for a guy with wing size — but the work has been done on a team level. Everyone on the team, especially when the smaller lineups are out there, has been working to make sure every shot is at least contested.”
Jalen Brunson and Kris Jenkins average an identical 12.8 points per game, but get there in different ways. Almost 2/3 of Jenkins’ shot attempts come from three-point range, where he shoots 42% (35-83). Brunson, on the other hand, has taken nearly 2/3 of his shots inside the arc. He makes 39% from outside (16-41) and 56% from everywhere else (42-74). Where they’re similar? Both players are great at pump-faking a defender to draw fouls, and they’re both nearly automatic from the line. Jenkins is 25-27 for the year (92%) and Brunson is 35-41 (85%). Beyond the easy points, their ability to force contact gets opponents into foul trouble. Creighton’s guards have to resist biting on the pump-fakes; if Isaiah Zierden and Tyler Clement are playing big minutes in the backcourt because of foul trouble for Khyri Thomas and Mo Watson, it will be a long afternoon.
Both team’s starting backcourts are equally terrific — Brunson and Hart average 33.3 points, 7.5 assists, 8.7 rebounds, and shoot 53.1% from the floor, while Mo Watson and Marcus Foster average 32.3 points, 11 assists, 5.3 rebounds, and shoot 50.0%.
Both teams shoot really, really well — four of Creighton’s starters shoot 50% or better from three-point range, while four of Villanova’s starters shoot 40% or better from outside. CU is the fourth-best shooting team in the country inside the arc, too, at 58.9%, while ‘Nova is third at 59.9%.
Given how close these teams are across the board, the game could very well be a one or two possession game where free throws make the difference. That’s a scary proposition; Villanova is the 10th best free throw shooting team in college hoops, making 78.2%. They have just one regular who shoots worse than 70% from the stripe. Meanwhile, Creighton is among the worst (240th in D1), and shoots 67% AS A TEAM. In a tight game, that’s not going to get it done. Creighton has to be locked in at the line.
Quick Notes on the Wildcats:
- Villanova is currently in the midst of the longest winning streak in program history, 19 games. The run dates to its six NCAA Tournament victories that began after a loss in the Big East Tournament final to Seton Hall. In addition, VU has matched the best start to a season (13-0), which has happened twice previously (1937-38 and 2014-15).
- The Wildcats were 24-3 from January through April 4’s 77-74 victory over North Carolina for the NCAA national championship. Toss in the 13 victories recorded so far in the 2016-17 campaign and VU is 37-3 (.925) so far in calendar year 2016. Holy crap.
- Josh Hart scored 25 or more points for the fourth time this season Wednesday night against DePaul. In his last four outings, the senior is 35-of-62 from the field (.565). The preseason Associated Press All-American leads the Big East in scoring (20.5 ppg), stands fifth in rebounding (6.5 rpg) and is eighth in field goal percentage (.558) and assists (3.6 apg).
- Villanova’s defense has made strides over the course of the season. After surrendering 77 points to Wake Forest on Nov. 18, the Wildcats have held eight of nine foes below 70 points. Opponents are scoring just 61.5 points per game against the Cats.
Bluejay Bytes:
- Villanova is the first defending national champion that Creighton will play since visiting 2007 NCAA champion Florida in the 2008 NIT. Villanova is the first defending national champion that Creighton will host since beating 1946 champion Oklahoma State on Feb. 8, 1947. That remains CU’s only victory against a defending national champion in seven tries at all sites.
- The last time Creighton hosted a team that played in the previous year’s Final Four? November 25, 2006 against George Mason, a game the Jays won 58-56. The last time Creighton hosted a defending national champ? February 8, 1947 when they beat Oklahoma State 40-31.
- Creighton is 3-7 all-time against ranked teams when ranked itself, but 2-1 in its last three such contests, including a 101-80 victory over #6 Villanova on February 16, 2014 at CenturyLink Center Omaha, and a 79-67 win over then #9 Wisconsin last month.
The Series:
Creighton beat Villanova twice during the 2013-14 season — the Ethan Wragge Game in Philadelphia, and a 101-80 win in the rematch in Omaha — and those are their only wins all-time against the Wildcats. ‘Nova holds a 7-2 lead in the series, including four straight wins by an average of 16 points.
The Last Time They Played:
Creighton got smoked 83-58 last February 3 in Philadelphia, an ugly game that was the culmination of a three-game skid that began with the late meltdown at Georgetown and ended with a straight-up butt kicking at Villanova. The Morning After pulled no punches:
“In the early going, it looked like offensively Creighton was channeling the spirit of Ethan Wragge, as they made three-pointers on four of their first seven possessions. Defensively, they were channeling the spirit of Rick Johnson, as they allowed Villanova to make an equal number of three-pointers — two each from Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson.
The teams continued to trade baskets, Creighton continued to rain in threes, and after back-to-back bombs by Maurice Watson and Toby Hegner, the Jays led 24-20. The problem with trading baskets with your opponent, of course, is that if you stop making shots, and your opponent doesn’t, you get blown out.
CU scored just eight more points over the final eight minutes of the half, while allowing Villanova to score 25. That 17-point edge gave Villanova a 13-point halftime lead, and the game was never as close again. The Wildcats scored on nine out of their last eleven trips down the floor, went a perfect 6-6 from the free throw line, and scored four of the five times they grabbed an offensive rebound. It was an atrocious eight minutes of basketball. There’s no sugar-coating it. The third-ranked team in the country puffed out their chest, demanded that Creighton give them their lunch money, and the Jays instead gave them their entire wallet to avoid a fight.
The second half was no better. Just like they did on Saturday night against Seton Hall, they allowed their opponent to use a big run right out of the locker room to put the game on ice. Over the first five minutes of the half, Villanova went on a 14-6 run to take a 21-point lead, scoring on five of their first seven trips. The Jays never got any closer than 18 the rest of the way and trailed by as many as 31 points as the Wildcats did what good teams do when given the opportunity: they blew out a less-talented opponent instead of letting them hang around.”
Ugly? You bet it was. It’s also instructive for Saturday — if you’re going to go into an offensive drought against a team like Villanova, you’d darn well better play defense.
Gratuitous Linkage:
FOX Sports recently wrote about Josh Hart’s NBA stock, which isn’t terribly high for such a great college player:
“He’s got the feel of college basketball’s Draymond Green (you know, minus the whole “kicking people in the face” thing): a position-less player, whose game can’t be easily defined, but just continues to put up stats no matter where he plays on the court. He won’t make sense for a lot of teams, but with the right one, he could be deadly.
Actually, as I tweeted Saturday, don’t we all already know his destiny in the NBA? He’ll be the guy who gets picked 10 spots too late, by the Spurs or the Warriors or some other smart team, and you might not hear from him for a while. Then, you’ll look up three or four years down the road, he’ll put up 28 in a playoff game, and you’ll think to yourself “oh, I remember that guy!”
Even More Gratuitous Linkage:
Myron Medcalf on ESPN.com predicts a Bluejay win!
“The Bluejays (44.6 percent) boast the best 3-point shooting clip in America and an offense led by an underrated trio of Marcus Foster, Maurice Watson and Khyri Thomas. Hart may lead the Wooden Award race and a Nova squad capable of a repeat in April – a crew Notre Dame and Purdue couldn’t solve in earlier matchups. But Creighton has waited for an opportunity to prove the hype in Omaha is real. Time for the Bluejays to toss their names into the national title conversation.
Prediction: Creighton 83, Villanova 80”
What the Other Side is Saying:
“While the hype will be all about the leading scorers in Hart and Foster, the real match-up to watch is Brunson and Watson Jr. These are two very tough guards with Philadelphia roots that make it possible for the other guys on the team to shine. They’ve also both shone the ability to take over a game when their team needs them to (Watson more so than Brunson). This is also where the tempo battle will take place. Creighton wants to run and push their opponents, while Villanova wants to grind things down. Whichever point guard can’t keep the game flow out the pace they want it will likely come out victorious.”
-Villanova Basketball vs Creighton Preview, VUHoops.com
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On December 31, 2013, Creighton won 67-49 against Marquette, but hardly anyone remembers the game itself. The story was everything surrounding it; one of the rowdiest home crowds in Creighton history witnessed the birth of the school’s Big East era.
“The CenturyLink Center was a madhouse, with students camping out 12 hours before the game to ensure prime seats, 18,525 fans cranking the decibel level to well over 100 for nearly two straight hours, and literally dozens of all-time classic banners and signs scattered around the arena. I loved the giant 15-foot “Section 122 says…In the East, the West is the Best!” banner that one entire row in that section held up during the first timeout. The “Hey Wichita, How’s the Valley?” sign that a student in the front row had was a tad uncouth, but it did make me laugh a little. There were several others that I don’t have space to single out here, too, all of which added to the environment.”
Oh, and this:
Greg McDermott said on his postgame radio show, “It was an incredible environment in here tonight. It’s something that our guys will never forget, they’ll take it with them for the rest of their lives…I’ve been talking for years about ‘When will the Creighton story get told?’. I think people that watched tonight, that hadn’t seen us, and hadn’t seen this place, and our crowd, probably went ‘That’s going on in Omaha, Nebraska? Really?’ For recruiting, and everything else that we need to do as we move this program forward in this league, a night like tonight will go a long way.”
Jahenns Manigat agreed, telling John Bishop and Nick Bahe on the postgame show that “Our crowd made it so incredible. This was such a memorable night. Who would have thought that, four years ago, we’d be here?”
We all had that thought on New Years Eve 2013, Jahenns, and had to pinch ourselves to make sure we weren’t dreaming. And the same could be said on New Years Eve 2016:
#1 Villanova vs #10 Creighton. Who would have thought we’d ever be here?
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
WE READY.
The Bottom Line:
This game has been circled on fans’ calendars since September when the schedule came out. “Can you imagine if both teams are ranked in the top ten by the time that game rolls around?” was something you heard a lot. No one thought they’d both enter the game undefeated, but here we are. Just five undefeated teams remain in all of D1; there will be just four after this game.
My prediction: in one of the best games of this or any year, two great teams trade leads all afternoon, and fueled by an insatiable home crowd of almost 19,000, Creighton makes a play or two down the stretch to win.
#10 Creighton 87, #1 Villanova 84
