[dropcap]We’ll[/dropcap] find out very quickly how good the 2016-17 Creighton Bluejays are, because Tuesday night in the season’s second game they welcome ninth-ranked Wisconsin to the CenturyLink Center for one of the marquee matchups of the second annual Gavitt Tipoff Games. It’s an extremely stiff test this early in the season, but one that will pay huge dividends should the Bluejays pull off a win — or prove educational should they fall in defeat.
The Badgers have been one of the nation’s best programs over the past five years, going to two Sweet 16’s and two Final Fours over that span, including a national runner up finish in 2015. Their run of excellence goes back further than that, though: they’ve been to the NCAA Tournament 18 consecutive years, winning at least one game in all but two of those trips, with three total Final Four appearances.
And while the team they bring to the CenturyLink Center Tuesday night might not be the best Badger squad of that run, that’s only because of the high bar that’s been set. They feature three preseason All-Big Ten Conference players (Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig, Ethan Happ), and return their top nine scorers from a team that finished 22-13 a year ago. Underscoring the experience this team has, they bring back all but six points and 20 minutes played from last year’s roster.
That Badger team dealt with the sudden retirement of legendary coach Bo Ryan 12 games into the season, lost four of their first five Big Ten games, and then went 11-2 the rest of the way — including wins over three Top 10 teams — to finish third in the league. Then they advanced to the Sweet 16 despite trailing in the second half of both of their wins.
Of the nine veterans returning, the headliner is undoubtably 2016 first-team All-Big Ten selection Nigel Hayes, who averaged 15.7 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while leading the team with 104 assists. Hayes is the 2016-17 Blue Ribbon Magazine preseason National Player of the Year and preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, and opted to come back for his senior season after testing the NBA waters last spring.
The 6’8”, 240-pound Hayes is a tough player to defend, as his Big Ten-best 258 free throw attempts — an average of 7.3 per game — can attest, as well as the fact that he’s the team’s leading assister. The offense runs through Hayes, literally. He’s also perhaps their most versatile defender, as Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal told us in our “From The Other Side” scouting report. Just a dangerous, fantastic player, on both ends of the floor.
Ethan Happ, a 6’10” sophomore who starts in the middle for the Badgers, averaged 12.4 points and 7.9 rebounds (6th in the B1G) a game during a freshman campaign where he was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year. He became the first freshman to lead the Big Ten in steals (63 steals) since Ohio State’s Aaron Craft in 2010, and just the third NCAA freshman over the last 15 seasons to score 400 points while recording 60 steals and 30 blocks (joining Kevin Durant and DuJuan Blair).
The combination of Hayes and Happ will be uniquely tough for the Jays to contend with at this point in the season, because of inexperience (Justin Patton has just one game under his belt) and injury (Zach Hanson, Martin Krampelj, and Cole Huff are all somewhere less than 100% after offseason surgeries). And that’s before mentioning senior Vitto Brown, a 6’8” stretch-forward who averaged 9.7 points and 5.0 rebounds a year ago while shooting a team-best 40% (38-95) from three-point range. Starting three forwards, all 6’8″ or taller, will force the Jays to make some interesting decisions. Does Greg McDermott play straight-up, go with his usual lineup, and assign Khyri Thomas at 6’3″ to guard either Hayes or Brown from the tip? Or does he go bigger even if it’s not his preferred lineup?
The Badger frontcourt has a decided advantage, at least on paper, and some combination of Patton/Hanson/Krampelj/Huff — and perhaps even Toby Hegner — will have their hands full trying to defend them. Look for the Jays to double Happ every chance they get to try and prevent easy baskets at the rim, and take their chances elsewhere.
In the backcourt, things match up a little better for the Jays. Wisconsin’s guard corps are led by junior Bronson Koenig, who averaged 13.1 ppg and shot 39.0% (83-213) from 3-point range a year ago. His nickname is “Klutch Koenig”, and for very good reason. Over the final five minutes and overtime of games last season, Koenig shot 54.8% (17-for-31) from 3-point range, and hit game-winning shots to beat both VCU and Xavier — the latter ending the Musketeers’ season and sending the Badgers to the Sweet 16.
Koenig shot 38.9% (83-213) from three-point range a year ago, and will be the focus of most opponents’ game plans in the backcourt. For teams that play the percentages (like Greg McDermott’s Bluejays), that means someone like Zak Showalter could get more shots than usual. He was 35% from long-range last year (37-107) and averaged 7.5 points with 3.8 rebounds a game.
While Wisconsin plays a rotation of nine or ten players, the bulk of their scoring and rebounding comes from their starting five. When they do go to the bench, the top reserves are Jordan Hill, Khalil Iverson, and Alex Illikainen. Hill, a 6’4” guard, played nearly 16 minutes a game last year and averaged 2.9 points and 1.4 rebounds a game. Nearly two-thirds of his shot attempts come from behind the arc, and he’s a 33% marksman (17-51) from outside.
6’5” guard Iverson is the opposite — he attempted 70 shots a year ago, with only 12 coming from outside (where he made just two shots all year). In 13 minutes a game, Iverson averaged 2.6 points and 1.9 rebounds, and turned it over 31 times to just 21 assists.
And Illikainen, a 6’9” sophomore recruited heavily by the Bluejays before he chose Wisconsin, played nearly 10 minutes a game as a freshman. On a team with a lot of experience in the frontcourt, Illikainen struggled at times and averaged just 2.2 points and 1.5 rebounds a game.
As it always is with Wisconsin, pace of play is a big key. Only nine teams averaged fewer possessions per game than UW last year, as their games were played at a 66.0-possession pace. Creighton made 30 baskets Friday night against UMKC, but if they play at Wisconsin’s pace on Tuesday, they may only get 33 or 34 possessions — that amplifies everything you do offensively, from shot selection to ball control, because the number of opportunities are much lower.
Unsurprisingly, the Badgers led the Big Ten in scoring defense a year ago (holding teams to 63.8 points per game) and turnover percentage, as they forced a turnover on one out of every five possessions. Oh, and they held 10 teams to their season-low point total.
If Creighton can get the game closer to their preferred tempo, meaning somewhere around 75 possessions, their odds of winning go up substantially. If this is a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair, the Badgers have the edge.
Quick Notes on the Badgers:
- The Badgers dispatched Central Arkansas in their season opener, 79-47, getting a combined 30 points from Koenig and Hayes. Wisconsin hit 11 3-pointers and held Central Arkansas to 28.3% shooting.
- The Badgers have won 37 of their last 43 (.860) regular-season non-conference games dating back to December of 2012. Of those six losses, five came last season.
- Wisconsin went 6-5 against ranked opponents last season. Over the last 3 seasons, the Badgers are 20-10, including a mark of 6-4 on the road against the AP Top 25.
Bluejay Bytes:
- Creighton is 2-7 all-time against Top 25 foes when ranked itself, with the last win coming on February 16, 2014, when the No. 18 Bluejays defeated No. 6 Villanova, 101-80. That was also the last time that a ranked Creighton team hosted a ranked opponent.
- Creighton is a perfect 52-0 all-time in regular-season home games that take place on or before November 26th. Creighton has won 54 of its 55 regular-season November home games since 1990, falling only to Boise State in 2012.
- With 19 points vs. UMKC last Friday, Marcus Foster became CU’s highest scorer in a debut since P’Allen Stinnett started his MVC Freshman of the Year campaign in 2007-08 with 23 points vs. DePaul.
The Series / The Last Time They Played:
Creighton and Wisconsin have split two all-time meetings, including an 84-74 in the 2012 Las Vegas Invitational, which is the last time they met. That game featured 10 ties and 18 lead changes, as the Jays dictated tempo to Bo Ryan’s Badgers in becoming the first team in more than two years to score 80+ against them. Here’s what Ott wrote following that win:
“CU shot a mere 38% in the first half and hit only 3 of 14 three-point attempts (21%). But Gregory Echenique (6) and Doug McDermott (5) hit the glass hard and led Creighton to a 25-17 rebounding edge during the first 20 minutes. Thirteen of those boards were on the offensive end, and the extra opportunities led to a 15-5 advantage for CU in second-chance points.
The second half saw the Jays shoot far better from all areas of the court. Creighton outscored Wisconsin 46-35 behind 62% shooting from the field. Ethan Wragge hit all 3 of his three-point attempts in the second half, pacing the Jays to 83% shooting from behind the arc during the final 20 minutes. And CU hit 15 of 17 free throw attempts, including 15 in a row until Jahenns Manigat missed his two attempts with 45 seconds to play and the Jays up 11.
When the full 40 minutes were up, Doug McDermott once again showed the nation why he’s an All American. Knowing full well that Wisconsin would need to at least contain his output and make the rest of the Bluejays beat them, McDermott instead scored a game-high 30 points while calmly converting 9 of his 10 free throw chances — he shot a perfect 9 of 9 from the line in the second half.”
Meanwhile, Greg McDermott is 1-1 against Bo Ryan and Wisconsin, falling 57-52 in a 2005 NCAA Tournament game played in Oklahoma City while he was coaching UNI.
As for the other meeting? Creighton dropped a 75-39 game at the UW Fieldhouse in Madison back in 1949. CU made just three field goals in a first half where they were outscored 40-14; a mediocre Bluejay squad that finished the year 9-14 was hampered by the absence of star forward Subbie Salerno against Wisconsin. The short recap in the next morning’s World-Herald noted that “Wisconsin coach Bud Foster cleared the bench of Badger players (in the second half), using 19 men in a merciful attempt to hold down the score.”
Gratuitous Linkage:
Wisconsin was ranked ninth in the preseason AP poll, their second-highest preseason ranking in program history. As the Wisconsin State-Journal’s Tom Oates writes, “Some think the ninth-ranked Badgers will be burdened by those expectations. However, those people don’t fully understand the culture that has developed within the program while going to two Final Fours and a Sweet 16 in the past three NCAA tournaments.”
What the Other Side is Saying:
“Playing at Creighton in the second game of the season? There are easier things to do in the world. Guards Maurice Watson Jr. and Marcus Foster, a transfer from Kansas State, can score, but the frontcourt possesses the most efficient players on the team. It will be an early challenge for the Badgers, but the sound defense is enough to eke out a road win against a NCAA tournament team.
Prediction: Badgers 65, Bluejays 60”
-Bucky’s 5th Quarter: “Wisconsin Basketball Predictions, 2016 Non-Conference Schedule”
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On November 15, 1994, the Dana Altman Era got off to an inauspicious start in the first exhibition game when the Dutch National Team refused to take the court for a second overtime, causing the game to end in an 80-80 tie.
The Dutch’s Okke te Velde hit what appeared to be a three-point basket with nine seconds left in the first OT, giving his team an 81-80 lead. The international officiating crew disagreed: Dutch official Henk Kleersnijder signaled for three, while U.S. official John Higgins overruled him and signaled two. Creighton’s Marcus Lockett missed a long shot at the buzzer, and the teams headed for a second OT tied at 80.
Except the Dutch team refused to get off their bench when the horn sounded to begin the second overtime, and after a long delay for dramatic effect, walked off the court and into the locker room in protest. “We’re not the home team, and we expect a couple of calls not to go our way,” Dutch Coach Toon van Helfteren was quoted in the next morning’s Omaha World-Herald. “No problem with that. But we could take only so much. That was the final thing for us. In my mind, yes, we won that game. It was a three – point shot, and that’s enough for me.”
“I’ve never seen anything like that,” Altman told the media in his first postgame press conference as Creighton coach. “I’m still not sure what happened. They just walked off the court. It was one of those games where the whole thing was kind of in a blur.”
Bluejay forward Randall Crutcher was equally confused. “At first, I thought they hadn’t heard the buzzer. Then I saw them start to walk off, and I couldn’t figure out what was going on. You always want to start what you finish. Hey, this isn’t hockey.”
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line:
If the Bluejays’ backcourt can push tempo and score in transition, thus getting the game into the 70+ possession realm, I like their chances. At the Kohl Center, this would be a different story, but at home, I think the Jays will be able to run just enough to get the tempo where they want it, use the home crowd to their advantage, seize the moment and pull out a nail-biter late.
Just make sure to guard Bronson Koenig if the game comes down to a final possession. Please.
Bluejays 74, Badgers 72
