[dropcap]As[/dropcap] Big East teams racked up one marquee win after another in November and December, earning praise for being one of the top two or three conferences in America, Creighton fans joined in the chorus applauding the success of the league. But as a grueling 18-game schedule against those teams is set to begin Wednesday, it’s tempting to wince a bit at the prospect of the Jays tangling with those teams for the next 10 weeks — because CU hasn’t exactly inspired confidence through two months that they’re ready for the challenge.
Creighton has never faced a league this formidable. Eight of the ten teams are ranked in the Top 100 of the NCAA’s official RPI. Nine of the ten are ranked in the Top 100 by KenPom. Half of the league has spent at least one week ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll so far this season. As many as seven teams are predicted to be in the discussion for an NCAA Tournament berth. It’s going to be a battle, night in and night out — there’s no Drake or SIU in this league, no opponent where you can play an average game and still win.
Here’s how the teams have fared through the non-conference schedule, and how Creighton stacks up. We’ve listed them in order of ranking according to KenPom (as of the morning of 12/29):
1. Villanova
Record: 12-0
KenPom Ranking: 5
RPI: 7
The Wildcats were predicted to win the league in the preseason, and if anything they’ve looked even better than expected. Against a pretty tough non-conference schedule (ranked 66th toughest by ESPN), they’re undefeated so far, owning wins over VCU (#14 in KenPom), Michigan (#80), La Salle (#79), Illinois (#42), Temple (#67), and Syracuse (#31). They’re a balanced team, ranking 7th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, helping them to win games both on nights where points come easy and on nights where shots aren’t falling. They’re balanced individually, as well, with four players scoring in double-figures — Darrun Hilliard II (12.6 points per game), Dylan Ennis (11.8), Josh Hart (10.8), and JayVaughn Pinkston (10.7) — and a fifth, Daniel Ochefu, at 9.4 points per game. Also, Ennis, Hart, Pinkston, and Ochefu all average more than four rebounds a game. They’re an extremely hard team to stop, an even harder team to beat, and not many will do either.
Predicted finish: 1st
Postseason: NCAA Tournament (Elite Eight)
2. St. John’s
Record: 11-1
KenPom Ranking: 18
RPI: 16
St. John’s was mocked a year ago because they struggled to finish .500 with a roster proclaimed as “The Most Talented Team in the Big East” by several writers. Though people had fun at their expense, you knew if Steve Lavin could ever manage to actually get that talent to gel that they’d be awfully good — and that’s what’s happened this year. They’re 11-1 with only a loss to Gonzaga (ranked #7 by KenPom) marring their results. They’ve fattened up on some bad teams, with five wins over teams ranked 150+ and a win over DII Franklin Pierce, but they do own wins over Minnesota (#27), at Syracuse (#31), Saint Mary’s (#94), and Long Beach State (#115). Offensively, they’re slightly above average, but they’re elite defensively, ranking fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The only game where they struggled to stop their opponent is not coincidentally the only loss they have; Gonzaga scored 73 points on them, but no other D1 opponent has scored more than 61 points against the Johnnies so far this season.
Predicted finish: 3rd
Postseason: NCAA Tournament (Round of 32)
3. Georgetown
Record: 8-3
KenPom Ranking: 28
RPI: 33
The Hoyas have three losses, but they’re to Wisconsin (#4 in KenPom), Kansas (#16) and Butler (#35). There’s no shame in losing to teams like that, especially when you own wins over Florida (#15) and Indiana (#44) to balance it out. Josh Smith, their 6’10”, 350 pound senior center, has been terrific (12.8 points/6.5 rebounds per game) as has preseason Big East Player of the Year D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (14.7 points/5.9 rebounds/3.8 assists per game). Smith-Rivera scored 29 points with four assists, no turnovers, and four steals in their win over Indiana.
Predicted finish: 2nd
Postseason: NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16)
4. Xavier
Record: 9-3
KenPom Ranking: 29
RPI: 57
Xavier hasn’t played a great schedule (their best win came against #57 Stephen F. Austin, and their only other Top 100 wins are over #68 Alabama and #92 San Diego — and San Diego is ranked nearly 100 spots lower in the RPI than they are by KenPom, for what it’s worth). Couple that with losses to Auburn (#156), Long Beach State (#115) and UTEP (#74), and it’s a resume that could do more harm than help come March. The Musketeers are a very young team, though (two of their top players, J.P. Macura and Trevon Bluiett, are freshmen) and they’ll be better in late February than they are now.
Predicted finish: 4th
Postseason: NCAA Tournament (Round of 32)
5. Butler
Record: 10-3
KenPom Ranking: 35
RPI: 35
The Bulldogs were picked seventh in the preseason poll, and are one of the biggest stories in college basketball — not just the Big East — with their play through two months. They beat a top ten team in North Carolina, along with Georgetown, in the Battle 4 Atlantis, and suddenly found themselves ranked in the Top 25. Subsequent losses at Tennessee (#95 in KenPom) and Indiana on a neutral court (#44) dropped them from the rankings, but they remain a pleasant surprise. They have depth, something they did not have a year ago, and it shows — Kellen Dunham leads them in scoring at 16.6 points per game and Kameron Woods leads them in rebounding at 9.0 boards a game. Roosevelt Jones, returning from a wrist injury that kept him out all season a year ago, has been their second-leading scorer (11.2 points per game), second-best rebounder (5.6 per game) and top assist man (4.3 per game).
Predicted finish: 6th
Postseason: NIT
6. Seton Hall
Record: 10-2
KenPom Ranking: 39
RPI: 22
Seton Hall has 10 wins, but eight of them have come against teams ranked 150 or higher by KenPom. The two wins? Over Illinois State (#86 by KenPom) in the Virgin Islands, and over George Washington (#38) at home. Meanwhile, their two losses came against the top two teams on their non-conference slate — at Wichita State (#13 by KenPom) and at Georgia (#36). Junior guard Sterling Gibbs leads the team in scoring at 15.6 points per game and is second on the team in assists with 3.3 per game. They seemed poised to make a move, but will now play the first month or so of Big East play without superstar freshman Isaiah Whitehead, who suffered a stress fracture in his right foot last week. The conference’s preseason choice for rookie of the year, Whitehead had averaged 11.9 points and 4.3 rebounds with a team-high 37 assists. Before his injury, I had them pegged for 5th; with him out for an undetermined period of time, they move down.
Predicted finish: 8th
Postseason: NIT
7. Providence
Record: 10-3
KenPom Ranking: 48
RPI: 27
The Friars, much like the Bluejays, were faced with replacing a great player who carried them a year ago. In their case, it’s Bryce Cotton, their all-everything point guard who played nearly every minute of every game. The difference is the supporting cast all returns. Forwards LaDontae Henton (20.0 points and 5.3 rebounds per game) and Tyler Harris (12.2 points and 5.0 rebounds) have improved over a year ago, as has center Carson Desrosiers. Add in guard Kris Dunn (13.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists per game) and you’ve got a formidable group. They’ve had a nice start to their season, knocking off Florida State (#124) and Notre Dame (#23 by KenPom) in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off Tournament, with three other notable wins over Rhode Island (#50), UMASS (#93) and Miami (#77). Their three losses came over a one-week stretch — at #1 Kentucky, who everybody will lose to, at #136 Boston College, and at home to Brown. Only the latter is inexplicable; Brown is ranked #220 and expected to finish at the bottom of the Ivy League.
Predicted finish: 5th
Postseason: NCAA Tournament
8. Creighton
Record: 9-4
KenPom Ranking: 76
RPI: 127
Coming into the season, we knew it would be one where the Jays would win games they shouldn’t win, and lose games they shouldn’t lose — the usual scenario for a team comprised of young players and veterans adjusting to new roles. That’s proved to be the case, as they own wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska, but also own losses to Tulsa, Ole Miss, and North Texas (and needed two overtimes to dispatch with South Dakota). Perhaps the worst thing to happen to them was the win over Oklahoma, as it raised expectations on a team not expected to do much; it even vaulted them into the Top 25 for a week. After watching them for two months, I think they’re about what I predicted them to be. They’ll win six or seven games at home, steal two or three on the road, and go 9-9 in the league. That gets them 18 or 19 wins and an NIT bid, which is where most people thought they’d be before the season (save for the heady week post-Oklahoma where NCAA Tourney talk blanketed Omaha).
Predicted finish: 7th
Postseason: NIT
9. Marquette
Record: 8-4
KenPom Ranking: 98
RPI: 109
Marquette is in a transition year, with Buzz Williams leaving for Virginia Tech and Steve Wojciechowski taking over. Their recruiting class next year should vault them back up to the top of the league, but this year could be rough with just eight scholarship players — and just one player taller than 6’7″. In a league of dominant big men, that’s a problem. Matt Carlino, a transfer from BYU, led them in scoring through eight games (12.3 points) and continues to lead them in assists (4.0 per game), but the addition of Luke Fischer — a 6’11” freshman who sat out the last year after transferring from Indiana and took the court for their final four non-conference games — makes them a different team. He immediately became their top scorer, averaging 15.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks in those four games. Their lack of depth, especially if Fischer gets in foul trouble, will make it tough for them to make too much of a move.
Predicted finish: 9th
Postseason: None
10. DePaul
Record: 6-7
KenPom Ranking: 211
RPI: 270
The only Big East team with a losing record through the non-conference schedule, DePaul is also the only Big East team with a KenPom ranking higher than 100…and they’re all the way down at #211. They enter league play with a six-game losing streak, including defeats to Ohio (#191) and Loyola Marymount (#251). Of their six wins, five have come against teams ranked #260 or worse (seriously) with two coming against teams ranked in the 300s. How this team managed to beat Stanford (#40) is one the great mysteries of the season.
Predicted finish: 10th
Postseason: None
