A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of March 11):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Louisville can’t play in the “Louisville Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI and KenPom.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.
Now for the bracket projection (March 12)…
LAST FOUR IN: Temple, Davidson, BYU, Indiana
FIRST FOUR OUT: Illinois, Richmond, Tulsa, Texas
NEXT FOUR OUT: Stanford, UCLA, Miami (FL), Old Dominion
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-12 (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
Next bracket projection: Sunday, March 15
Conference Tournament Preview
With 20 NCAA Tournament automatic bids still to be determined, here’s a preview of all of the anticipated multi-bid leagues and what I believe needs to happen for “bubble” teams to make the field of 68.
For starters, there are 11 leagues that will have their NCAA Tourney representative determined on Saturday or Sunday. No matter how you slice it, these will be one-bid leagues (highest remaining seed listed if not down to the final two teams)…
- America East: championship game between Albany and Stony Brook
- Big Sky: Montana
- Big West: UC Davis
- C-USA: Louisiana Tech
- Ivy: one game playoff between Harvard and Yale
- MAC: Central Michigan
- MEAC: North Carolina Central
- Southland: Stephen F. Austin
- Sun Belt: Georgia State
- SWAC: Texas Southern
- WAC: New Mexico State
Now for the 11 remaining conferences that should end up with multiple bids…
ACC:
Locks (6): Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State
Work to do (1): Miami (FL)
The win by N.C. State over Pittsburgh put to rest any small doubts that the Wolfpack would need to worry about come Selection Sunday. It also sealed the Panthers fate as a likely NIT first round host. I currently have Miami (FL) in my “next four out”. I really think that the Hurricanes need to win the ACC Tourney and remove all doubt with the automatic bid. But if they are able to at least get to the ACC championship game, it will at least make other “bubble” teams feel a bit uneasy.
American:
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Looking good (1): Temple
Work to do (1): Tulsa
As much as I currently have Temple as one of my “last four in”, they have a must win game against Memphis in the American quarterfinals. The Owls could still make their way into the field of 68 with a loss to the Tigers, but they’d need other bubble teams to slip up as well. Tulsa absolutely needs to get top the championship game or they will be NIT-bound.
Atlantic 10:
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Work to do (2): Davidson, Richmond
The Davidson overall SOS does scare me (107). Add in that its best non-conference victory is against UNC-Wilmington (RPI: 140) and the selection committee can find lots of flaws with their overall slate. However, the Wildcats were the outright regular season champs in the #7 RPI conference – and most years that’s good enough for an at-large selection. Richmond played a much better non-league schedule than their league-mate Davidson, but weren’t able to take advantage of those opportunities (losses to Old Dominion, N.C. State and Northern Iowa). The Spiders have comparable computer numbers (RPI: 55, vs. Top 50: 3-5) to other “bubble” teams, but failure to take advantage of those non-conference games likely means a run to the A-10 title game is necessary for an at-large nod.
Big East:
Locks (6): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier, St. John’s
Unless Marquette or Creighton can pull off a major surprise (Nice win by the Jays last night!) and win the Big East automatic bid, the only drama here will be whether or not Villanova can come away with the 4th #1-seed. If the Wildcats cut down the nets at Madison Square Garden, they will do just that…
Big Ten:
Locks (4): Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State
Looking good (2): Purdue, Ohio State
Work to do (2): Indiana, Illinois
Today and tomorrow will certainly be interesting at the United Center as a couple of at-large berths will be determined. After re-looking at the Ohio State résumé, I may have the Buckeyes seeded a bit high (#8, currently) as their RPI (44), record vs. Top 50 (1-6) and record vs. Top 100 (7-9) resembles more of an 11-seed or “last four in” type of team. I think the “eye test” will certainly fall in OSU’s favor as they generally look like an NCAA tournament caliber team on most nights. A loss to Minnesota today, though, may give the selection committee some pause as to whether or not the Buckeyes belong. If I were a Purdue fan I’d still be a little nervous as not too many teams from a non-top 3 RPI conference (Big Ten is 4th) with an RPI of 50+ (Purdue is currently at 58) get at-large bids. The most recent instance was back in 2011 when USC (RPI of 67 from the #7 RPI league) received an at-large nod. Indiana will be playing a must-win game against Northwestern today. A loss and the Hoosiers are heading to the NIT. Although beating the Wildcats won’t be a résumé enhancer, it also won’t be a bad loss. I honestly think this will be enough to push IU into the field of 68 – although a good showing against Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals wouldn’t hurt, either. Illinois not only needs to beat Michigan this afternoon, they then need to get by Wisconsin the following day. Anything short of that should place the Illini in the NIT.
Big 12:
Locks (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Work to do (1): Texas
Will beating Iowa State today be good enough for Texas to punch their ticket to the Big Dance? Many say yes. In fact, many already have the Longhorns in the field of 68. I still have my doubts. Their résumé still lacks a lot of bright spots (3-11 vs. Top 50), although the wins against Baylor (RPI: 9) and West Virginia (RPI: 21) do stand out. That’s a lot of chances against good competition (Iowa State will be their 15th game vs. RPI top 50 competition) without a lot of positive results. I think that if the Longhorns do defeat Fred Hoiberg’s Cyclones, they have a great chance to make the NCAA field. However, I think they need some help along the way (early losses by Indiana, Richmond, Temple, for example). I did move Texas into my “first four out” from “next four out” (swapping them with UCLA) as UT has a game immediately in front of them that can help its tournament chances (UCLA plays USC before a chance at playing Arizona).
MVC:
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Nothing to see here… Both teams will be wearing home whites (8-seed or better) come Selection Sunday.
MWC:
Locks (3): San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State
Colorado State is still bit of an unknown in my opinion – 20 of their 25 Division I wins are outside the RPI top 100. The computer certainly likes the Rams (RPI: 26). I think the Rams are safely into the field, but avoiding a quarterfinal disaster against Fresno State would certainly ease things for CSU fans.
Pac-12:
Locks (2): Arizona, Utah
Looking good (1): Oregon
Work to do (2): Stanford, UCLA
Based on its T-2nd regular season Pac-12 finish, Oregon should be safely into the field. However, a stumble against Colorado in the quarterfinals could have committee members re-evaluating a team that went just 1-4 vs. the RPI top 50. Stanford and UCLA both appear to have lots to do to make the field. An appearance in the Pac-12 title game should be a minimum requirement in each school’s mind for garnering at-large consideration.
SEC:
Locks (4): Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia
Looking good (2): Texas A&M, Mississippi
I do believe that all six of these SEC teams will make the Big Dance, however, Texas A&M and Mississippi would do themselves well to avoid a first round loss as their overall résumés are the most suspect.
WCC:
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Looking good, for now (1): BYU
The BYU résumé looks eerily similar to many other bubble teams. However, their win against Gonzaga – on the road – stands out among any non-league win that a bubble team might have. Although they lost to the Bulldogs in the WCC title game, they also showed well in the losing effort. By no means would I be surprised if BYU were left out of the NCAA field. At this stage, though, I think they would be in – but not by much.
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Sunday, March 15…
