A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of March 1st):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Louisville can’t play in the “Louisville Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI and KenPom.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”. I’ve also done a brief capsule on each multi-bid conference.
Now for the bracket projection (March 2nd)…
LAST FOUR IN: BYU, Illinois, Purdue, Boise State
FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Temple, Stanford
NEXT FOUR OUT: Richmond, UCLA, Old Dominion, Davidson
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Big Ten (8), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), American (3), MWC (3), Pac-12 (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)
Next bracket projection: Monday, March 9
5 Things About This Week’s Bracket
1. As much as I believe that Kansas has all the qualifications of a #1-seed, its loss at Kansas State along with Kentucky, Virginia, Duke and Villanova, continuing to have nearly flawless résumés forced me to drop the Jayhawks to a #2-seed. Many have pointed to KU having a lot of conference losses (4) compared to the other #1-seeds. As with most things in life, our memories are short as Indiana, Louisville and Kansas all were #1-seeds in 2013 and all had four conference regular season losses. I still believe that if Kansas wins its last two regular season games and wins the Big 12 Tourney title, it will be difficult to keep the best team from the #1 RPI conference with computer numbers that also say it is one of the top four teams in the country (RPI: 2, SOS: 1) off of the #1-seed line. The Jayhawks 10 top 50 RPI wins are also second only to Kentucky’s 11 triumphs.
2. I think that this has been one of the most difficult bracket projections in recent memory and where teams get seeded will be very interesting. The #1’s, #2’s and #3’s seem pretty well defined. You could also say the same about the #4’s and #5’s, to a certain degree. After that, there are about 25 teams that feel more like #8’s, #9’s, #10’s and #11’s as opposed to a #6- or #7-seed. For example, I’ve had LSU as a 7-seed for each of the last two weeks. According to 80 different projections on the Bracket Project website, they average out to a 9-seed. If LSU ends up as a 9-seed on Selection Sunday, you would get no argument from me. Point being, the 6 thru 10 seed lines are likely still taking shape with conference tournaments playing a big roll in the fluctuation.
3. With realignment over the past few years, everyone seems to have a difference of opinion over which teams fall into the “power conference” category. For the sake of this item, I am calling the power conference teams the 5 BCS leagues plus the Big East and the American. In my latest projection, I have 31 of the 36 at-large bids going to schools from those leagues. With the possible exception of Conference-USA (Old Dominion has an outside chance for an at-large berth), there are 21 leagues where only the conference tourney champion (excepting the Ivy, which we all know does not play a conference tournament) will receive an NCAA bid.
4. What a week for Kansas State – taking down top 15 teams in Kansas and Iowa State at Bramlage Coliseum! The Wildcats, however, have been the epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde team. They were pedestrian, at best, during non-league play (7-6) – although they did post quality RPI wins against Texas A&M (33) and Purdue (57). The Wildcats then started 4-1 in Big 12 play – they were alone in first place on Jan. 17. After splitting games against Iowa State (L) and Oklahoma State (W), KSU lost 7 of its next 8 games – including at league doormats Texas Tech and TCU. Here’s the deal, as much as Kansas State has many, many scars on its tournament résumé, they also have 7 RPI top 50 wins. That’s more than a current projected #3-seed (Maryland – 6), two #4-seeds (Louisville and Butler, each with 5) and a #5-seed (Providence – 5). To be clear, I’m not saying KSU should be in that company. What I am saying is that I can’t ever remember a team with 7 RPI top 50 wins not being included in the NCAA field since it expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. With all that being said, I have the Wildcats as one of my first four out due to the fact that they are a combined 2-11 in road/neutral contests.
5. As far as the Big East, I think the six teams you see in the projected field right now are the six teams you’ll see on Selection Sunday. I will say though that Xavier could really use a win, as they are just 8-9 in league play. As mentioned in the introduction, several teams have made the tournament before with below .500 conference records (once thought to be a complete at-large deal breaker). Remember when St. John’s was 2-5 after its loss at Creighton? The Red Storm has rattled off 7 wins over their last 9 games and is now on the cusp of wearing home-whites for their NCAA opener.
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, March 9…
