Behind the Numbers: Win Score (12/1)

We’re a month into the men’s basketball season, and with the Bluejays’ 2-4 start, the message boards and radio talk shows are lighting up with fans expressing who they think should be playing the majority of minutes for Dana Altman’s team. Gut feeling is one way to determine who you think should play; using statistics is another way to evaluate playing time.

A couple of summers ago, I started working with a newer statistical term called Win Score that takes into account pretty much every statistical part of a player’s stat sheet to produce an efficiency score. It can show that your highest scorer isn’t necessarily your best player. Someone with brain more powerful than I came up with the formula. If you are a statistics guru, read on. If not, you might want to skip to the results.

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For those of you with the brain of a super computer, the formula is as follows:

(Points + Rebounds + Steals + (½*Assists) + (½*Blocked Shots) – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – (½*Free Throw Attempts) – (½*Personal Fouls)) / Minutes = Win Score per Minute

Then, you take that score and account for the expected score for the position that the player normally plays. Using the above formula combined with the position expected score and projecting over a 40-minute game (using another formula), you get the players who directly contribute to wins on the court.

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OK, have I lost you yet? You can check here to see last year’s scores. But for this season, six games in, what would you say if you saw this lineup on the floor Sunday against Nebraska?

PG: Antoine Young
SG: Darryl Ashford
SF: Justin Carter
PF: Wayne Runnels
C: Kenny Lawson

Well, the Win Scores through the first month of the season determine this is the best winning combination to put on the court at the same time. Here’s how the scores shake out for everyone:

Win Score rates Lawson as the best Bluejay through 6 games

So you may be saying that Ethan Wragge needs to be on the court. Well, unless the frosh has some point guard skills we don’t know about yet, you need to field a lead guard on the court. The numbers show Antoine Young is Creighton’s best option at PG, which keeps Ethan from a place in the starting five. Cavel Witter’s Win Score is better than Young’s, but I have him as a shooting guard since he has played more toward that position this season.

When you look at the scores, the lineup makes sense. Kenny Lawson has played pretty consistent this season, twice sniffing a double-double and coming off the heels of his best performance this season (vs. Iona).

Darryl Ashford, until this past game against Iona, has been the consistent scoring threat for the Bluejays, and that consistency contributes to his score. But Ashford did have 7 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals against Iona. Wayne Runnels’ rebounding numbers and shooting efficiency put him third.

And everyone who watched the CU-Michigan game saw Justin Carter dominate while on the court. His minutes have been extremely limited due to injury through six games, but he shot up the Win Score list with his efforts in Orlando. It will be interesting to see how Carter’s score fluctuates depending on his injury woes.

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Should the Bluejays tighten up the rotation a bit for a challenging December slate? Wragge and P’Allen Stinnett could come off the bench. This would appear to work well because Stinnett could sub for either Ashford or Carter and rotate between the SG and SF positions while Wragge can come in and you have a rotation of Wragge, Runnels, and Lawson covering the low post positions.

Between Wragge and Stinnett, you could see a real spark for the Bluejays off the bench. Then mix in some minutes for Kaleb Korver and Cavel Witter, and give Andrew Bock and Chad Millard time when foul troubles sink in for the primary point guard and low post players.

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One player on which the Win Score doesn’t reflect well is Casey Harriman. If you look at last season’s scores, you see Harriman didn’t have the best Win Score. Still, we all know how effective he was for Creighton during some crunch time situations that were not reflected in his stat line. He takes charges. He hustles. And he fights for rebounds. He is battling back from illness right now, and his Win Score this season isn’t great. But he is the wildcard in all of this: Harriman brings the types of intangibles Win Score just can’t account for.

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Carter, Lawson, and Stinnett were in the top 5 on the team at the end of last season in wins produced based on the Win Score. At the same time, the Kenton Walker transfer strikes the Bluejays again as he was also in that top 5. Walker’s contributions and Win Score outline how important it will be for players to step up soon to help Lawson in the low post.

Still, what does this tell us? Take these Win Score calculations with a grain of salt, I guess. Some people just aren’t that into stats like these. But for me, especially considering the 0-3 Old Spice Classic effort and the lack of standout players so far this season, I would like to see a starting lineup like the one I mentioned at the top of this post. And I think Stinnett and Wragge can be the effective first backups in the game.

And it isn’t just about starting. If your best players play the most minutes, common sense says you’d have a better chance to win. But figuring out who those best players are right now, regardless of past experience and the names on the back of the jersey, is what Win Score attempts to do.

Are there lineup changes or rotations you want to suggest? Who do you want on the court in crunch time Sunday versus the Huskers? What is your opinion about Win Score? Leave your comments below!