Waiting is the hardest part. Knowing you are in makes it easier. Last weekend, the Creighton Bluejays team punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament by winning Arch Madness in St. Louis. Instead of waiting on pins and needles to see whether the Bluejays will get into the NCAA Tournament (which they did successfully in 2001 and unsuccessfully in 2009), the players and staff are waiting in anticipation to see who they’ll play and where they’re going.
Throughout the season, many people try to predict how the final NCAA Tournament brackets will play out. Joe Lunardi has made a living doing this kind of stuff. We even have Tim Krueger from Bluejay Banter as our own resident Bracketologist. The idea of Bracketology has grown large enough that a few years ago, a concept called The Bracket Project was born.
The Bracket Project is a site that aggregates all of the major Bracketologists out there. It is through this mechanism that you can deduct who might be pretty good at this type of thing.
Over time, the Bracket Project has been able to rank the Bracketologists contributing to this. Surprisingly to some, Lunardi hasn’t had the type of success ESPN would have you believe. Krueger seems to be just as good or even better than Lunardi based on the rankings. However, one person that might not get near enough attention is the editor of College Hoops Net, Shawn Siegel.
Siegel is actually ranked #1 overall based on four years of submissions to The Bracket Project (The current #1 has been in for three seasons) The rankings are based upon the seedings, the locations, and the matchups being predicted and how close they are to the actual bracket released on Selection Sunday.
While many in Omaha are waiting in anticipation on where the Jays might end up, we talked to Siegel about his bracket just days before the selection show to see what insight he might be able to tell us about Creighton’s destination. Here is what he had to say.
White & Blue Review: How long have you been predicting brackets? What made you decide to start doing them?
Shawn Siegel: That’s a good question. I’m really not entirely sure when I first started predicting brackets. Since I was a kid, I’ve been obsessed with Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament. Once I started CollegeHoops.net back in 2002, it seemed logical to start projecting brackets. I first started “officially” doing weekly Bracketology projections back in 2006 and the last few years that content has really blown up.
WBR: You have been pretty successful in the Bracket Project that consolidates the large amount of people doing Bracketology predictions. What has made you so successful in making those predictions?
SS: I think most people tend to overthink the process. For one, the AP & Coaches poll give you a pretty good approximation of how the top handful of seeds will look barring major RPI anomalies. At the back end of the field, its pretty easy to sort those teams as well since there’s less parity amongst the worst teams. So basically, the only challenge is sorting the middle seeds taking into account the committee’s historical biases. Basically, they tend to focus heavily on “big wins” as opposed to overall winning percentage.
WBR: What do you like about Creighton and what seed and location do you see them headed?
SS: In tournaments, I always tend to focus on teams with stars. And Doug McDermott is as big of a star as you’ll find out there. We just named him First Team All-American and the High-Major Player of the Year. As you saw in the MVC finals, when Creighton needs a big play, he’ll get the job done. With a Top 25 ranking and a Top 25 RPI, Creighton should be looking at a 5 to 6 seed. I could see them facing a BCS team like West Virginia, Cal, or Northwestern, but there’s a lot of basketball yet to be played.
WBR: On the other side of the coin, what about Wichita State?
SS: Although Creighton won the Valley Tournament, Wichita St. will probably get a slightly higher seed. This could mean a 4 seed at best, or maybe a slight better slot in the 5 range. Besides a better regular season record, the committee will probably overrate the blowout win over UNLV.
WBR: Who will be the surprise team selected to the NCAA Tournament that no one is predicting?
SS: Right now, the most controversial team I have in my projected bracket is Tennessee. With 13 losses and an RPI of 75, the Vols don’t look like a tourney team at first glance. But they’ve won 8 of 9 games, and have Top 50 wins over the likes of Florida twice, Vanderbilt, and UCONN. The Vols should make it.
For the latest bracket prediction from Siegel, follow this link.