Creighton goes on the road for the second Sunday in a row. This time it is to Big Ten contender Northwestern. This is the first game of a home and home with the Wildcats, who will come to Omaha next season. The last time these two teams got together was in 1991 at a neutral site tournament in Arizona, where Northwestern walked away with an easy victory.
The Bluejays are hoping for a little different result this time as they make the trip to the Chicago area. However, Northwestern will be ready for the Bluejays; the Wildcats have had time to prepare for Creighton since they haven’t played a game since November 19. Will that help or hurt them?
We won’t know until Sunday night. In the meantime, we can learn a bit more about the Wildcats from local Chicago basketball guru John Templon from Chicago College Basketball. Here’s what he had to say.
White & Blue Review: Three games into the season and Northwestern has been pretty dominant so far and is sitting undefeated. What are some of the good things you have seen so far?
John Templon: The offense has played very well thus far this season. The starting five can really fill up the basket. John Shurna is one of the best players in the Big Ten. He can score in a variety of ways and has really started the season strong. Beyond him, Drew Crawford and Michael “Juice” Thompson have provided consistent scoring as well.
WBR: Bill Carmody has seemed to bring new life to the Northwestern program. What has he done to get this team in the upper half of the Big Ten?
JT: Well, I don’t know if this team is quite in the upper half of the Big Ten yet — most preseason polls had them picked for 7th in the conference — but he has done a good job of raising the talent in the program during the past four years and making the team more competitive. Carmody is one of the best teachers of offense in college basketball. His version of the Princeton Offense is deadly efficient and leads to a lot of open looks both at the basket and on the 3-point line. Of course, this is his 11th season as head coach and some people are wondering why the Wildcats still haven’t gone to the NCAA Tournament.
WBR: You brought it up. Northwestern has never made it to the NCAA Tournament. What is it that is holding them back?
JT: Two things are really holding this program back from a basketball stand point at the moment — defense and consistency. Northwestern could’ve been a tournament team last season if it had managed to show some consistency in Big Ten play and not lose at Iowa and Penn State both at home and on the road. Also, the Wildcats had one of the best offenses in the country last season, but a defense that ranked 168th according to Ken Pomeroy. That’s really been the case the last two seasons.
Beyond that, Northwestern has always been more of a football school. I guess it’s hard for the only private institution in the Big Ten to compete with some larger schools in both revenue sports and until recently most of the Wildcats’ efforts have gone to the football team — and with good reason considering the team’s success. It seems that paradigm is shifting to a more equal footing now though as the team has more and more success.
WBR: Many publications have Creighton and Northwestern as possible “First Four” teams into the NCAA Tournament. What impact will this game have when it comes to the end of the season and the possibility of getting into the NCAA Tournament? Could it come down to who won this game in November?
JT: Honestly, Northwestern needs to win this game, and every other non-conference game they play in order to make the NCAA Tournament, even as it expands to 68 teams. The Wildcats play a really weak non-conference schedule with Creighton, Georgia Tech, and a possible game with St. John’s being the only decent contests on the schedule. That means that whether this team makes the tournament on Selection Sunday is going to come down to Big Ten play. The Wildcats will have to get some scalps in conference play, in one of the most loaded conferences in the country, and finish at least 10-8 in conference. If they do those things then Northwestern will be dancing. Anything less and fans are going to start getting really nervous.
So it could all fall apart for Northwestern on November 28, or this could just be the first in what will need to be a number of milestones.
WBR: As I look into Northwestern a little more, I see that although they are part of the Power 6 conferences they seem to have the same type of scheduling issues as the so called Mid-Major like Creighton. They have troubles drawing bigger name programs to play at Northwestern. Why is that?
JT: The prevailing theory is that Northwestern has trouble attracting top teams to come to Evanston because the Wildcats play the Princeton Offense and that’s scary. There’s a rumor that Northwestern was trying to work out a deal to play Duke this season, but that never materialized. Also, being “the team that has never gone to the NCAA Tournament,” is a tough one to bear. Further, Northwestern isn’t Michigan State or Ohio State. While the Wildcats do have a national fan base, it isn’t concentrated anywhere besides Chicago and New York. Thus ticket sales aren’t going to go through the roof if you schedule the Wildcats, because the team also lacks name appeal. Maybe that changes if this team becomes the NCAA Tournament’s Cinderella this season, but until that point they’re left scheduling home-and-homes with teams like Texas Pan-American. Yuck.
WBR: When Creighton comes to town on Sunday, what are they to expect as far as the environment? Is it difficult to win at Welsh-Ryan Arena?
JT: Welsh-Ryan Arena is generally referred to as an oversized high school gymnasium. The players have likely seen the sight lines before and it shouldn’t bother them. While ticket sales are up for the team this season the crowd — in general 1 is usually not particularly raucous. The saving grace for most games is that the student sections are in the bleachers behind both baskets. Whether the students will be back though from Thanksgiving break in large enough numbers to make a difference is another question.
Because Northwestern relies so much on its offense the Wildcats are better at home than on the road in general. Penn State was the only “bad” home loss the Wildcats had last season and they did knock off Purdue while the Boilermakers were amongst the top teams in the country.
WBR: Who will the Bluejays need to defend in order to walk away with a win and how deep is the bench?
JT: Northwestern’s offense is keyed off of three guys — John Shurna, Drew Crawford, and Michael Thompson. Thompson is the senior point guard and gets Northwestern into all its sets. He’s also deadly from 3-point range and is a savvy veteran leader. Shurna is a junior forward that was on many people’s Naismith Award watch lists. He was being a bit passive early in games during the first two, but against Arkansas-Pine Bluff he absolutely dominated from the opening tip. Crawford is an athletic slashing sophomore that can also really shoot the three.
You have to get out on Northwestern’s shooters. Everyone on the team, including the centers, can knock down an open jump shot. Luka Mirkovic, the Wildcats’ starting center, plays better at home than he does on the road, so he might also be a factor in the paint during the game.
Finally, Northwestern has been trying to push the pace a bit more this season. The team has a lot of talented athletes, including the fifth starter, freshman JerShon Cobb, who is one of the highest recruits to ever come to Evanston, and has tried to get into the open court more this season.
While Bill Carmody would like to develop more of a bench, there are really only three or four guys that come off it that make any serious contributions. Senior guard Jeff Ryan missed all of last season with an injury, but he’s back and provides a steadying hand, but doesn’t shoot often. Alex Marcotullio is a disruptive player at the top of Northwestern’s zone and can also shoot the three-point shot. Davide Curletti comes off the bench as Mirkovic’s backup, but he’s played poorly in the first three games and finally Mike Capocci is a defensive oriented swingman that can spell Crawford or Shurna if necessary.
If the game is close though don’t expect Shurna or Thompson to come out. Both played over 90 percent of the team’s total minutes last season, with Thompson being fifth in the country at 93.2 percent.
WBR: From a defensive side of things, what weaknesses do the Wildcats have that Creighton could exploit?
JT: Defense has really been the issue for Northwestern, especially defensive rebounding. The Wildcats allow way too many second-chance opportunities. This partially comes from the fact that they only play zone. There’s a match-up 2-3 zone and a 1-3-1. The first gets exploited by teams that have good ball rotation and can get the ball to an open shooter when someone fails to close out in time — often Mirkovic or Curletti. The second is beaten by either penetration to the free throw line and then a good decision about whether to dish into the low post or take a reasonable jump, or by excellent three-point shooting.
Thompson often plays the bottom of the 1-3-1, so if you can get the ball underneath, there is typically a mismatch against a 5’10 point guard versus a much taller player. Northwestern allowed 71 points at Texas-Pan American, but after the game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff Bill Carmody stressed that his team was going to be working on defense during the break between that game and the one against Creighton.
WBR: What is your final prediction for Sunday’s game?
JT: It seems to me that this game is going to be a close one. The teams seem to be pretty evenly matched on paper. The long break is going to help Northwestern down the stretch and I think the Wildcats are going to pull away at the end for a victory, say 78-66.