The Bluejays have three MVC regular season games left on the schedule. Two of the three are on the road. All they can do now is play for seeding in the MVC tournament in St. Louis, stay out of the Thursday night play-in games (I never thought I would write that), and hope for a favorable first round matchup.
The first of Creighton’s last three MVC games takes place in Cedar Falls, where the Bluejays have beaten the Northern Iowa Panthers five straight times. It will be UNI’s first game without the services of one of the league’s best big men. Jordan Eglseder will miss the next three games due to a suspension incurred after being arrested for operating a vehicle under the influence.
Even though the Panthers already clinched at least a share of the MVC regular season title (for the second consecutive season), Eglseder’s situation (and potential losses because of his absence down the stretch) could put UNI in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament should the Panthers not win the Arch Madness title.
White & Blue Review wanted to get our money’s worth with just three games left in MVC regular season play, so we reached out to Kelly Beaton from the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier and Andrew Logue of the Des Moines Register for their opinions about numerous issues surrounding tonight’s CU-UNI game.
First, let’s check in with Kelly Beaton of the WCF Courier.
WBR: How will losing Eglseder impact the Panthers down the last stretch of the regular season?
Kelly Beaton: Well, the one thing that really made UNI’s roster jump off the page was Eglseder and his 7-foot, 280-pound frame. Now that’s gone, and it can’t be replaced.
That said, Eglseder’s numbers had tailed off a bit in the last 6 games or so (to around 10 ppg and 5.5 rpg), and one of the games he’ll miss is against last-place Evansville, so UNI may be able to weather the storm. If they can go 2-1 in the games he misses, they should still be in decent shape in terms of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large, if necessary.
I’m intrigued to see what PF Lucas O’Rear can do in extended minutes in the next few games.
WBR: If Northern Iowa doesn’t win the MVC tournament, what are their chances to be selected as an at-large team to the NCAA Tournament?
KB: If you believe national critics like Gary Parrish (CBS Sports) and David Mihm (bracketography.com), UNI will be sweating heavily on Selection Sunday if they don’t win the Valley tournament.
I, however, think if UNI gets to at least 15-3 in the MVC by the end of February they should be alright.
If UNI were to miss the NCAA Tournament despite winning the regular season title it would be proof positive that the Big Dance needs to expand, in my opinion. After all, UNI will almost assuredly end the regular season with the most single-season wins in school history.
WBR: Northern Iowa seems like a pretty balanced team. Who would be considered the leader of this squad and what does that player bring to the team?
KB: I think Adam Koch is the top leader on the team. But he simply leads by example, with passionate play; he scored 11 points in the final 3:11 versus Southern Illinois recently, helping UNI pull a win from the fire.
Vocally, Kwadzo Ahelegbe probably leads the Panthers on the floor the most. He, too, is passionate; he displayed a lot of confidence in UNI’s narrow win over Wichita State Feb.3, scoring 15 points in the game’s final 11 minutes.
WBR: What has been the biggest difference of the past couple of seasons that has taken place with this team that has made them so successful.
KB: I’d have to qualify my answer by noting this is my first year covering the team.
But, from what I’ve seen and heard, there are a couple factors at play here.
For one, Coach Jacobson, now in his fourth year as head coach, has learned from a few early mistakes he made in his tenure here. For example, he recently noted that in his first year, midway through the season he started looking ahead and plotting out how many games UNI had to win to make the NCAA Tourney. They ended that year with 13 losses. As a result, he now puts on the blinders and simply takes things incrementally.
Secondly, guys like Ahelegbe and O’Rear have brought a bit of a swagger — and an abundance of confidence — to the UNI roster. They believe they’re going to win late in games, and that has been a huge asset for the Panthers this season.
WBR: This is a pretty veteran team, but could lose a lot going into next season. What type of players have been recruited for next season and will this team still look like the teams of the past couple of seasons?
KB: Probably UNI’s top two incoming recruits for next year are Chip Rank and Doug McDermott. They’re two 6-6 to 6- 8 kids who look like they could be poor-man’s examples of what Adam Koch evolved into. They should play right away next year and help a fair amount.
I think UNI’s entire 2010-11 season, for the most part, hinges on whether O’Rear comes back for a senior season or decides to turn his attention to baseball; he could be drafted as a right-handed pitcher next June.
WBR: If you were to give Player of the Year honors right now in the Valley, who from the Panthers are in consideration?
KB: At the moment, I’d just say Adam Koch. He has been extremely clutch (he shoots around 90% from the free-throw line in the last 5 minutes of games) and has probably been UNI’s steadiest performer, game-in and game-out. He entered the week averaging 12.6 ppg and 4.6 rpg.
WBR: What is your final prediction? Can the Bluejays steal a win on the Panther’s home court?
KB: Given Creighton’s success in the McLeod Center — and Eglseder’s suspension — nothing would surprise me. I’m going to guess Jacobson has UNI fired up for this game, however, and the fact both teams have struggled shooting of late probably gives a slight edge to the Panthers — who typically thrive in low-scoring slugfests.
I’ll say UNI wins it, 59-55.
We also check in now with Andrew Logue of the Des Moines Register.
WBR: How much of a worry is the potential for complacency down the stretch, now that a share of the MVC title is secure and most likely the #1 seed in STL?
Andrew Logue: No worries about complacency. They know they have work to do in order to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Jacobson keeps this group on an even keel, and they’re a veteran team that went through a late-season grind last year.
WBR: With Eglseder gone for 3 games, how will Jacobsen divvy up the minutes?
AL: O’Rear, who was averaging 19 minutes, will start in place of Eglseder. Jake Koch will also see more time. Adam Rodenberg, who has played 24 minutes all season, will be a third option.
WBR: For any teams looking to knock off UNI in STL (ahhem … CREIGHTON …aaahhem), what are the Panthers’ most glaring weaknesses?
AL: The Panthers are methodical and efficient, but they don’t blow anybody out. Teams can feel pretty confident they’ll be in the game with 10 minutes left. That’s when Bradley started pulling away. The Panthers are shooting just 27.3% from long range in their past 11 games.
WBR: What does the Panthers’ recruiting class look like for next season?
AL: I’ve seen McDermott of Ames play. I think he’ll be a good fit. He gets overshadowed by Harrison Barnes.
WBR: Under what circumstances do you see Jacobsen leaving UNI for another gig? Is there a “dream job” he might covet, or a situation/place he might favor? How prepared is UNI to match offers or extend his current deal?
AL: UNI gave Jacobson an extension last year. I think he’s a guy who embraces his upper-Midwest roots. I also think he sees things from the BCS side, through his friendship with Iowa State coach Greg McDermott. If he finds a job he is interested in, like any coach, it would be hard for any mid-major to match a BCS deal money-wise.
WBR: How has the new home facility helped Northern Iowa as far as fan support and recruiting over the past couple of years?
AL: The McLeod Center is nice, but winning trumps all. They’ve drawn over 6,000 the last couple home games. They’re caught up in the Valley title chase more than the scenery.
WBR: What are your predictions for Tuesday night? Will UNI rebound from Saturday’s loss?
AL: As the beat writer, I don’t do predictions. But I expect another tight contest for UNI.