With last week’s announcement by St. Thomas (MN) of a game in Omaha on November 7, one of the final pieces of the non-conference scheduling puzzle was revealed. In fact, despite no official release we already know the entire non-conference slate except for two games — either because they’re not yet contractually agreed upon, or because the school is saving them as a surprise for the official announcement of the schedule, which typically happens in July.
The Jays’ opener against St. Thomas is a game long-rumored on corners of the internet, and was confirmed with the Tommies’ schedule release last week. A Summit League team in their second year in D1, they made the huge jump from DIII after three Final Four trips in 10 years including two titles and one runner-up finish. It was not a smooth transition — they were 10-20 and lost 12 straight games from January 6-February 19. In their schedule release, head coach Dr. Johnny Tauer said “Our opener at Creighton, a national power and peer institution, is a special opportunity for our guys.”
According to a report from college hoops writer Rocco Miller, it will be followed by a visit from the Fighting Hawks of North Dakota, a fellow Summit League team who finished 6-25 a year ago; their only wins after Thanksgiving were against an NAIA school, Nebraska Omaha, and the aforementioned St. Thomas. They last played in Omaha in 2018, when the Jays throttled them 111-68.
After (presumably) ironing out the kinks in those two games, it’s off to the Maui Invitational. The field (as always) is stacked, featuring eight perennial NCAA Tournament teams — Arkansas, Arizona, Cincinnati, Louisville, Ohio State, San Diego State and Texas Tech. The bracket and matchups have been released in mid-July in recent years, so while we don’t know who the Jays will face among those eight marquee names, we also won’t have to wait long to find out.
Upon their return to the mainland, the Jays will head to Austin for a matchup with Texas in the Big East/Big XII Battle. Texas returns its top two scorers, plus former Bluejay Christian Bishop, from its 2021-22 squad that finished 22-12 overall and lost to Purdue in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. They’re expected to be a preseason Top 15 team.
D1 Docket reports that the annual meeting with Nebraska is on December 4 in Omaha, and for now, is the only marquee game on the home slate prior to Big East play. But it’s “marquee” only in the sense that state bragging rights are on the line; Nebraska went 10-22 a year ago, losing 19 of 21 games over a three-month period that nearly cost Fred Hoiberg his job. Things probably won’t be much better this year, at least not by December 4, with leading scorer Bryce McGowens leaving for the NBA after one season.
A neutral floor game with BYU, the return game of the quasi-home-and-home series that began last year in Sioux Falls, happens on December 10 in Las Vegas. Two days later, the Jays take on Arizona State in Las Vegas in another neutral floor game. It’s something called the “Jack Jones Hoopfest”, a five-team event held at Mandalay Bay with pre-determined matchups.
The Jays’ participation in a second neutral floor event is a bit of a curiosity — especially with the stacked field in Maui and a true road game at Texas to bolster their non-conference resume, why opt for a Vegas event over an additional home game?
The answer lies at least in part due to the unavailability of their home arena for eight prime scheduling days in December. The NCAA Volleyball Final Four will take over the CHI Health Center from December 13-18 for setup, practices and matches, and a private event on December 10-11 (presumably connected to the Final Four, though we could not confirm that), which combined with Finals week from December 5-10, leaves the Jays with most of December unavailable for home (or any) games.
That leaves room for two more games. We know they won’t be part of the Gavitt Games this year; when the field was announced earlier this month, the Jays were not on it. So it’s a good bet both remaining games will be buy games against lower-tier opponents, squeezed in either before Maui (where there’s a 10-day break) or after Maui (where there’s a seven-day break). But don’t rule out a “name” game against a power conference foe, perhaps after the Final Four leaves town but before Big East play tips off — the home non-conference schedule, as it currently stands, consists of St. Thomas, North Dakota, and Nebraska. In terms of quality, the grumbling from season ticket holders if they pad it out with two buy games would be fairly noisy (and it’s already started a bit on social media and message boards, even without the opponents in the last two games known.) And in terms of quantity, five home games would be the fewest in a non-COVID season since the 2009-10 team played six, and would mean the first time a team with any sort of postseason aspirations visits Omaha is when Big East play starts.
Of course, this isn’t a schedule you make with message boards and social media, or even athletic department budgetary concerns, in mind. It’s a schedule designed with March seeding in mind — and if Joe Lunardi’s Summer Bracketology released today comes true for the Jays, that means First and Second Round games two hours from campus in Des Moines.
And if they win two games there, and get to play the second weekend three hours from campus in Kansas City in front of what will amount to a home crowd, the opponents they played in actual home games in November and December will be long forgotten.
“My philosophy is you schedule to the ability of your team,” Greg McDermott told the Omaha World-Herald’s Tom Shatel last month. “When you have an experienced roster, I think it’s good for your league and good for your program to challenge yourself.”
How much of a challenge? Here’s the breakdown of the six known opponents, including projected T-Rank and Quadrant:
- St. Thomas (331, Q4)
- North Dakota (309, Q4)
- Nebraska (90, Q3)
- at Texas (10, Q1)
- vs BYU (75, Q2)
- vs Arizona State (49, Q1)
And here’s the Maui field:
- Arkansas (17, Q1)
- Arizona (14, Q1)
- Cincinnati (52, Q2)
- Louisville (88, Q2)
- Ohio State (61, Q2)
- San Diego State (11, Q1)
- Texas Tech (27, Q1)
Presuming the final two spots are Q3/Q4 home opponents, the Jays non-conference slate will feature five Q3/Q4 teams and six Q1/Q2 teams (depending on how the Maui bracket shakes out). Challenging indeed.