The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off tonight. Reaping the benefits of a 14-4 league mark, the Creighton Bluejays will gather tonight in St. Louis and watch as #7 Drake and #10 Bradley battle for the right to face CU Friday at 6 p.m. The first game of the event pits #8 Indiana State vs. #9 Southern Illinois.
The Sycamores are the #8 seed, and not the #3 seed, because the Bluejays were able to escape Terre Haute last Saturday with a 61-60 win. Not quite sure my nerves have recovered from what seemed to be the perfect trap game ahead of Creighton’s trip to Arch Madness. The last five minutes of Saturday’s game effectively threw the Sycamores’ chances at a repeat MVC Tournament title out the window; no team’s ever won the league tournament after having to play in the first round games. Sure, there’s a first time for everything. But that’d be the shock of all shocks.
Speaking of shocks, Wichita State enters the weekend with the top seed in the tournament. After watching Creighton collect oodles of niceties from the nation’s college hoops media for most of the season, the Shockers have become the mid-major du jour to do what Butler, VCU, and George Mason have accomplished in the past few years — advance to the Final Four.
So winning Arch Madness shouldn’t be a problem for WSU, right? The Shox only lost two league games, but both opponents (Drake, Creighton) are on the opposite side of their bracket. They are clearly on a roll, having won eight straight games after a demoralizing overtime loss in Des Moines. But in the last 10 years, only three #1 seeds (Drake in 2008, UNI in 2009 and 2010) have left St. Louis with a tournament championship.
The Bluejays are the tournament’s #2 seed, a position that’s proven favorable for CU in past trips to the Gateway City (see below). The Jays feature the best player (Doug McDermott) and the best defender in the league (Gregory Echenique) and a coach who has won a MVC Tournament title (Greg McDermott, 2004 at UNI). And they’ll be joined by thousands of people clad in White and Blue at the Scottrade Center (and neighboring establishments) all weekend.
That’s right. All weekend. The Jays make it to Sunday. (I know, I know. Not a very bold prediction, considering their seed and the five-game cushion separating CU and the rest of the league in the regular season standings.) But considering the cardiac arrest Creighton’s inflicted on its fan base the past few weeks, I’m sure plenty of teams in the Valley smell blood and are circling for a chance to knock of the Bluejays. If the Jays and Shockers meet Sunday, I’ve got to say the game’s a toss-up to me. If it is CU and anyone else, I think Creighton can pull it out. And if the Bluejays get bounced before the championship game, they’re still in line for their first at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament since 2001.
Seems like the pressure rests solely with Wichita, right? Gregg Marshall, rightfully deserving of the league’s Coach of the Year Award, talked frequently after beating Creighton in Omaha that his team deserved publicity and attention from the folks casting that affection Creighton’s way. They’ve got it. They’re the hunted coming into Arch Madness. Can they do what they’ve never done before and win a MVC Tournament in St. Louis? Like I mentioned before, there’s a first time for everything.
Make sure you check out White & Blue Review all weekend for coverage of Arch Madness. That is, of course, after you read why Creighton will (and won’t) win this weekend’s tournament.
Three Reasons Creighton Will Win the Tournament
1. They’ll have the best player on the floor in every game.
Earlier in the week the Valley voters honored Doug McDermott as the Larry Bird Player of the Year. He became the first sophomore to earn the award, and he did so going away. He’s a legitimate consideration for any All-America team being put together. And Creighton fans have spent the past two seasons seeing exactly how he can take over a game.
He might just need to do that in St. Louis this weekend.
2. They’ve got a stable of shooters.
Ethan Wragge leads the team in three-point shot attempts (135), making 42.2% of them. Jahenns Manigat has almost as many makes (53) as Wragge (57) but with 25 fewer shots, good for a team-high 48.2%. And McDermott, the league’s best player, can step out from his forward position and hit treys at a 47.9% clip.
Bluejays fans would feel comfortable with any of those guys taking shots if needed. Add Josh Jones (39.5%) and Avery Dingman (47.1%) to the conversation and the depth among Creighton’s shooters is clear. Many teams can’t survive an off-night by one of their best outside gunners. The Jays, meanwhile, can simply slide another guy into that role if the man ahead of him is struggling.
Add the fact that Antoine Young and Grant Gibbs are capable long-range shooters, and opponents can’t sleep on Creighton’s perimeter players. The CU offense starts inside with McDermott and Gregory Echenique, but the team’s 42.8% three-point shooting mark — second highest in the nation — isn’t a fluke. They’ve got gunners everywhere, and could easily turn any one of their games in St. Louis into a laugher.
3. They’re due.
It’s been four seasons since the Bluejays prevailed at Arch Madness. That’s the school’s longest stretch without a MVC Tournament championship since the seven years between 1991 and 1999. Creighton’s won 10 MVC Tournament titles, five more than any other league school. CU is 37-20 all-time in the league tourney, and those 37 wins are the most among any MVC team.
So they’re not the #1 seed? CU is 17-3 all-time as the #2. History shows that the #2 seed (13) has as many tournament championships as the #1 seed.
And if they need a little pick-me-up, the Jays will have the largest and loudest contingent in the Scottrade Center crowd.
With 25 wins entering the tournament, the league’s best player and the event’s largest crowd, the concoction exists for this to be a special weekend for the Bluejays. It’s been awhile since CU fans stormed the court in St. Louis; perhaps the time is right.
Three Reasons Creighton Won’t Win the Tournament
1. The best player doesn’t always leave St. Louis with a championship.
This isn’t tennis or golf. Hoops is a team game. And only twice in the past 8 years has the team with the POY won the league tournament (UNI, with Adam Koch in 2009-10; Drake, with Adam Emmenecker in 2007-08). Darren Brooks won it twice for Southern Illinois but the Salukis watched as Northern Iowa won the tournament his junior season and Creighton claimed the title during his senior year. The next season SIU finally broke through for a championship at Arch Madness, much to the chagrin of POY Paul Miller and the #1 seed Wichita State Shockers. Jamaal Tatum took home the POY in 2007 but watched Nate Funk and the Jays leave the Lou with a trophy. Booker Woodfox won what Funk couldn’t, a POY award, but watched his chances for a tournament championship go up in smoke in the 2009 semifinals. Last year Kyle Weems and the top-seeded Missouri State Bears succumbed to the Indiana State Sycamores in the title game.
2. A sharpshooter takes them out before Sunday.
The Bluejays get the winner of Thursday’s Drake-Bradley play-in game. Last year the two teams met on Thursday in St. Louis and Dyricus Simms-Edwards turned a 5-point BU halftime lead into a 15-point Braves win. DSE scored 26 on the night. Bradley rightfully earned the #10 seed in this year’s tournament, but no opposing team should sleep on Simms-Edwards; he’s a streaky scorer who can get going.
Meanwhile Drake has two potent scorers in Ben Simons and Rayvonte Rice. Both have had good games in their careers against Creighton. It’s possible that Simons, Rice, or DSE could put a charge into the anti-CU contingent at the Scottrade Center (hint: they’ll be wearing black and gold) and upset the Jays.
If CU can get past the quarterfinals, Weems or Colt Ryan will be waiting. Talk about guys who can take over a game and carry teammates to a victory. Say either man’s name to a knowledgeable Creighton fan and he/she might punch you square in the gut. To bring up those guys in conversation certainly recalls a few frustrating evenings in the past couple of years for Bluejays basketball.
3. Their offense cools off.
Much has been made about Creighton’s defense, or supposed lack thereof. While they’re not Michigan State, their team defense has been adequate; you don’t win 25 games without being able to get stops. But fact is their offense, one of the nation’s best, covers up for some defensive lapses.
In their most recent game, the Bluejays shot 38.6% from the field, statistically almost equal to their lowest shooting percentage of the season (38.2% in loss to Missouri State). Sure, they still won. But in three losses in February Creighton barely cracked 40% from the field (42.1% at UNI, 40.4% at UE, 40.4% vs. WSU).
CU opponents have shot 48% or better from the field 10 times this season; the Jays lost three of those games. They outlasted outstanding offensive production from Long Beach State and Evansville in recent weeks. But can they survive another 40% shooting performance? Hopefully Creighton fans won’t have to find out.
