I’m curious (worried?) about a few things in the weeks leading up to the start of the 2014-15 Creighton Bluejays men’s basketball season. So, I’m asking some questions and avoiding most answers, all in an attempt to avoid biting my nails off the cuticle waiting for the season to start.
#10 — Can the Bluejays stay healthy?
#9 — What can we expect from Creighton’s newcomers?
#8 — Can seniors Devin Brooks and Avery Dingman put it all together?
#7 – Who is going to #LetItFly?
#6 — How well will the Bluejays defend?
152.
That was Creighton’s AdjD, or adjusted defensive efficiency, rating last season according to basketball advanced statistician Ken Pomeroy. It’s an estimate of the points a team would allow per 100 possessions against the average Division-I offense. Or whatever.
When you lead the country in points per possession offensively, and post an AdjO, or adjusted offensive efficiency, rating of 122.8 (third-best, behind Michigan and Duke), you can afford to give up some points. And while Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, and Ethan Wragge supercharged Creighton’s offense the past few seasons, no one is going to confuse them with the Detroit Pistons of the early aughts.
Among their conference mates last season, the program’s first in the Big East, the Bluejays defensively were statistically average – fourth in points per game against, fifth in field goal percentage defense, fourth in three-point field goal percentage defense, fifth in rebounding margin. Dead freakin’ last in steals per game, too, although that’s been a concerning trend since Greg McDermott replaced Dana Altman on the Hilltop (Creighton finished tenth, ninth, and ninth in steals per game in the program’s final three seasons in the Missouri Valley Conference, McDermott’s first three years at the helm).
Two years ago, Gregory Echenique’s final season at Creighton, the Jays posted an AdjD of 80 alongside an AdjO of 8. That was quite the improvement from the 190 AdjD posted in 2011-12 and the 184 AdjD in 2010-11. With Big E out of the paint, and in a new league with plenty of highly touted and talented opponents, the Jays regressed defensively.
Jahenns Manigat was often Creighton’s unsung workhorse on defense (WBR/Mike Spomer) $ CLICK TO BUY $
And now Coach Mac’s lost the inexhaustible Jahenns Manigat to graduation, the guy the coaching staff knew they could count on to give unbridled effort to stick like glue to the opposing team’s best scoring guard.
One would expect a regression back toward the average for Creighton’s offense, no matter how good the combination of returnees, redshirts, and true freshmen might turn out to be. But defensively, how will the Bluejays get stops?
Austin Chatman must lead the defense from his lead guard spot (WBR) $ CLICK TO BUY $
Let’s stay in the backcourt, where Austin Chatman begins his senior year the unquestioned leader of the team. There, he’ll be asked to guard guys like Georgetown’s D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Villanova’s Ryan Arcidiacono, and Seton Halls Sterling Gibbs, among others. Chatman’s teammates Devin Brooks and Isaiah Zierden will have their hands full, too, whether they’re filling in against the conference’s lead guards or trying to hold their own against a venerable collection of gunners at the shooting guard spot around the league.
But at least those guys have experience. Redshirt freshman Toby Hegner and junior college redshirt James Milliken have been practicing and scrimmaging last year’s second-place finisher in the Big East, albeit friendly foes. How will they react defensively when the season starts and they’re off the bench and in the throes of executing what they are likely still trying to grasp in practice?
Speaking of which, how lost do you think Leon Gilmore III and Ronnie Harrell feel right now? The true freshmen are gifted athletically; by all reports from practice, Gilmore is giving great effort defensively too. But c’mon, even the best athletes are going to experience a learning curve as they move from trying to defend high school players to some of the best in college hoops. It’s natural.
The key on the wing might be Avery Dingman, a player with three years of experience and a chip on his shoulder. As his offensive game has morphed from spot-up shooter to slasher, he’s seemingly bought in to claiming the hard-nosed defensive assignments that Manigat accepted night in and night out during his college career. At 6-foot-6 and 215 lbs., Dingman is athletic enough with good size to stay with guys in this league. But consistency and tenacity will need to be Dingman’s focus if he’s to become a stalwart defender.
Another guy on the wing with experience defending talented opposing offensive creators is Rick Kreklow. The transfer to Creighton via Mizzou and Cal was the best wing defender the Bears had last season, in a Pac 12 Conference stacked with talent at the position. And that was while Kreklow battled injuries, a common theme throughout his college career. If he’s healthy, he has a chance to help limit opponents from that spot on the floor.
Will Artino (left) and Austin Chatman are two of the more experienced defenders for the 2014-15 Bluejays (WBR/Mike Spomer) $ CLICK TO BUY $
Speaking of spots on the floor, the one that has to concern Creighton fans most is around the rim. Two years after Echenique left, the Bluejays still have a void defensively in the paint. Will Artino is active defensively, but at 6-foot-11 and 230 lbs. will always be less of a brute force and more of a block-you-from-the-weak-side type of interior defender. Geoffrey Groselle seems to have the frame (7-feet tall, 240) and the mindset to bang amongst the trees in the Big East. But injuries have been Groselle’s biggest opponent during his college career. And last year as a freshman, 6-foot-9, 240-pound Zach Hanson just didn’t get a ton of opportunities for extended minutes in the paint against upper echelon bigs.
Folks in the Bluejay Underground, those glass-half-full types, keep posting about the collective improvement in talent and athleticism that Greg McDermott has at his disposal when it comes to defense. While that might be true, there’s something to be said for the familiarity and understanding that Doug, Ethan, Grant, and Jahenns brought to that end of the court. It is going to take some time for the 2014-15 Creighton Bluejays to find their way defensively. They won’t have too many practices, though, before a top-20 Oklahoma Sooners team that averaged 81.9 points per game last season (eighth-best in the nation) and that returns 68% of its scoring and four starters from that squad.
Baptism by fire, right?