I’m curious (worried?) about a few things in the weeks leading up to the start of the 2014-15 Creighton Bluejays men’s basketball season. So, I’m asking some questions and avoiding most answers, all in an attempt to avoid biting my nails off the cuticle waiting for the season to start.
#10 — Can the Bluejays stay healthy?
#9 — What can we expect from Creighton’s newcomers?
#8 — Can seniors Devin Brooks and Avery Dingman put it all together?
#7 — Who is going to #LetItFly?
#6 — How well will the Bluejays defend?
#5 — How will Austin Chatman go out as a Bluejay?
#4 — What different lineups will Creighton fans get accustom to seeing this season?
#3 — How will the Creighton Bluejays fare during the non-conference schedule?
I do it every year. Most of you do, too.
With the Creighton men’s basketball schedule finally in PDF form, I print that sucker and tape it to my office wall. From there, first with pencil and then in pen, I take a conservative (yet fully glass-half-full) approach to forecasting wins and losses for the Bluejays.
I miss the occasional guess (ahem, Boise State 2012). But more often than not my picks are on point, especially thanks to the cupcakes that serve as appetizers ahead of the annual multi-team event around the holidays.
Ah, yes, the MTEs. The past few Thanksgivings, Greg McDermott and his son, Doug, spent the long weekend with late-night viewers on the ESPN family of networks. Wins over Arizona State and Wisconsin in Vegas two years ago. Another victory against the Sun Devils, an NCAA Tournament team, in Anaheim last year, followed by an entertaining loss to eventual NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 participant San Diego State and a not-so-entertaining defeat to NCAA Tournament participant George Washington.
ASU, SDSU, and GW were half of Creighton’s six non-conference opponents last season that wound up playing in the Big Dance (Nebraska, Tulsa, and Saint Joseph’s did too). This year, at the Emerald Coast Classic in Florida, the Jays will face Ole’ Miss and either Cincinnati or Middle Tennessee State. I don’t know if any of those teams are tournament-caliber teams. I don’t know how many future NCAA Tournament squads comprise Creighton’s non-con slate this year. And I don’t know if the Bluejays are bound for a fourth straight Big Dance, either.
What I do know is that the picks below are bound to be correct — until they’re wrong. And they’re the same picks as the ones on my wall at work.
Game #1 vs. Central Arkansas Bears
(340 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings)
Season-opener. At home. Against a team with a first-year coach. On a Friday.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #2 vs. Chicago State Cougars
(319 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings)
The Bluejays have the luxury of hosting Central Arkansas Friday night and then bringing in Chicago State a few days later. The Cougars, however, play at Arizona State Friday night (9:00 p.m. PT) then head to Omaha to face the Jays on Sunday.
Travel concerns might not be the chief reason to pick against CSU. But the Cougars’ one winning season since 1985 might be.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #3 vs. Oklahoma Sooners
(28 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings)
Arguably the toughest test in Creighton’s non-conference schedule, the Oklahoma Sooners came into their two exhibition games rated No. 19 in both polls. The Sooners then summarily blasted Washburn 73-48 and Southwestern Oklahoma State 78-37.
Lon Kruger returns four starters from last year’s runner-up in the Big 12, a team that was a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament but was upset by 12-seed North Dakota State in the second round.
Kruger’s Sooners will use the game in Omaha as a tune-up for the next week, when they compete at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas (against UCLA, Butler/North Carolina, Georgetown/Florida/UAB/Wisconsin).
Maybe Creighton catches OU longing for the beaches and sun.
Verdict: Jays lose
Game #4 vs. North Carolina Central Eagles
(148 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings)
Good luck against the Tar Heels, NCCU!
The Eagles, like Oklahoma, advanced to last year’s NCAA Tournament. They return two starters and a key contributor from that squad, a team that at one stretch won 20 straight games. North Carolina Central is the preseason favorite in the MEAC, a league the Eagles won last year.
NCCU is Creighton’s first opponent in the on-campus portion of the Emerald Coast Classic, but the CenturyLink Center won’t be the first raucous road atmosphere the Eagles will play in: North Carolina Central starts its season Friday night at the Dean Dome against North Carolina (8 p.m. ET on ESPNU).
Verdict: Jays win
Game #5 vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers
(304 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings)
A few tidbits about the Panthers.
Their coach is Jay Spoonhour, son of the late Charlie Spoonhour, a coach and broadcaster long-time Creighton hoops fans know well.
They’ve got the brothers Piotrowski, Mat and Luke, who stand 7-foot-2 and 6-foot-11 respectively and whose father, Tom, played two years in the NBA.
They’ll have had a few tests before they get to Omaha, including playing Cincinnati just two days ahead of the game against the Bluejays.
EIU opens their season Friday night at Missouri State, where Spoonhour’s father, Charlie, will be honored at his old stomping grounds in Springfield.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #6 vs. Ole’ Miss (at Emerald Coast Classic in Niceville, FL)
(88 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings)
Even without Marshall Henderson, Mississippi is the kind of team against which Creighton could struggle mightily. Experienced (four of five starters return, and five seniors overall). Hungry (missed the NCAA Tournament with 19 wins, suffering close losses to tourney teams Oregon, Kansas State, Dayton, and Florida). With an explosive scorer in the backcourt (Jarvis Summers is an All-SEC team pick in the preseason and the second Cousy Award candidate Creighton will see, joining Oklahoma’s Jordan Woodward).
Oh, and if their exhibition win over Delta State is any indication, the Rebels can play some defense too. Ole’ Miss turned the Statesmen over twenty-nine times, scoring 53 of their 97 points off of Delta State miscues.
Verdict: Jays lose
Game #7 vs. Cincinnati / Middle Tennessee State (at Emerald Coast Classic)
(46 and 115 in preseason Kenpom.com ratings, respectively)
In a post full of guesses, this is the ultimate reach. We won’t know Creighton’s opponent for the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend until we’re all stuffed with Thursday’s leftovers on Friday evening.
If it is the Bearcats, the Bluejays will get an opportunity to be Mick Cronin’s program for the second time in three years. If it is the Blue Raiders, the Bluejays will get a chance to face a program it hasn’t played before, a team coming off a share of the Conference USA regular season title in 2013-14.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #8 at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
(45 in preseason Kenpom.com rankings)
Creighton’s first true road game takes the Bluejays to Tulsa. The last time Creighton visited, this happened:
Doug took it to the Golden Hurricane that night, scoring a then-career high 35 points. And the Bluejays beat Tulsa the past two seasons, too. But while McDermott is gone, Tulsa returns 11 players — four starters — from last season’s NCAA Tournament team.
Change is swirling around the Hurricane program. Danny Manning left to take over the head coaching job at Wake Forest. Frank Haith, formerly of Missouri, now leads Tulsa. He’s overseeing a basketball program playing its first season in the American Athletic Conference, where schools like Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, SMU, and defending National Champions UCONN await.
Verdict: Jays lose
Game #9 at Nebraska Huskers
(34 in preseason Kenpom.com rankings)
I refuse to pick Nebraska.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #10 vs. South Dakota Coyotes
(261 in preseason Kenpom.com rankings)
A game after taking on Tim Miles and his Huskers, the Bluejays will face longtime Miles assistant Craig Smith. He’s in his first season in Vermillion, which is a member of the Summit League (they’ll come back to Omaha in mid-February to face conference mates Nebraska-Omaha).
Based on the games immediately preceding this one, the Bluejays might be in dire need of some home cooking.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #11 vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels
(80 in preseason Kenpom.com rankings)
Remember BracketBuster weekend? Ugh.
Creighton’s last experience in the ESPN showcase was a complete letdown against Saint Mary’s in February 2013. The loss was the Bluejays’ fourth in six games, putting CU at 22-7 and slipping to the wrong side of the proverbial “bubble.”
This game is the return matchup for Creighton’s trip to Moraga, California. Since then, the Gaels program has been hit with NCAA sanctions. Still, Randy Bennett’s been able to bring in a number of transfers who should help his team compete.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #12 vs. Texas Pan-American Broncs
(294 in preseason Kenpom.com rankings)
The last time Creighton played a Dan Hipsher-coached team, he was assisting Anthony Grant on the Alabama bench in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. He became the head coach of the Broncs a few weeks after the Bluejays beat the Crimson Tide.
Hipsher’s remaking his roster. Twelve players are gone from last year’s Broncs team, which finished 9-23.
Verdict: Jays win
Game #13 at North Texas Mean Green
(219 in preseason Kenpom.com rankings)
Former Marquette assistant Tony Benford continues to retool his roster in Denton. Six newcomers are in the mix, including former Texas A&M point guard J’Mychal Reese. He’s still awaiting a waiver to play immediately, though, and might not be in the mix when the Bluejays come to town.
A matchup between Reese and fellow Texan high school standout Austin Chatman would be something to see, especially with Chatman returning close to home for Creighton’s final non-conference game of the season.
Verdict: Jays win