College basketball officially begins Friday, October 12. In the days surrounding Creighton’s Bluejay Madness event, we’ll try to pose (and answer) some of the most pressing questions surrounding the 2012-2013 Creighton men’s basketball team.
#10: How well will Austin Chatman replace Antoine Young?
#9: Can Creighton handle being the hunted?
#8: How will the minutes shake out?
#7: What will the newcomers bring to this team?
#6: What will Doug McDermott do for an encore?
#5: Will Creighton’s non-conference schedule be a liability come March?
#4: Are the Jays poised to put the best offensive team in program history on the court?
#3: Can Creighton improve its defense from a year ago?
#2: How will the Missouri Valley Conference race shake out?
No one asked for my ballot. And no, I don’t have a vote. But in the imaginary place where my opinion counts, here’s how I see the Valley race in October.
1. Creighton (2nd in 2011-2012, 14-4)
Win an outright Missouri Valley Conference regular season championship. Please.
With Wichita State having to replace their best players and Creighton returning all of theirs save for Antoine Young, the Bluejays will likely be the unanimous pick to win the league title when the preseason poll comes out later this month. Teams like Northern Iowa and Illinois State return a lot of pieces, too, but none of them are named “Doug McDermott” or “Gregory Echenique” or “Grant Gibbs.”
There are plenty of reasons why the Bluejays might not win a league title in Greg McDermott’s third year as head coach. If the defense doesn’t improve, or if the team can’t adequately replace Young’s minutes at the point guard position, the Jays will be forced to ride Dougie Fresh and Big Greg. Coupled with being in the proverbial crosshairs each and every night in league play, and representing an opponent’s biggest home game of the season, there will be plenty of challenges facing the Bluejays this season.
But over an 18-game conference slate, I’d be foolish not to think Creighton could outpace its closest rivals and win the program’s first outright league title since the 2000-2001 season. Any league champion needs a few breaks to go their way. As a homer, here’s hoping the Jays get some and capitalize.
Greg McDermott hopes to win a league championship in his third season at CU (Mike Spomer/WBR)
2. Wichita State (1st, 16-2)
Gregg Marshall’s Shockers ran away with the league’s regular season championship following a road win in Omaha last February. Jays fans will be hard pressed to point out a returning WSU player they’re familiar with, though, this season. Maybe they will remember Carl Hall; he recorded his only double-double of the season in a home loss against Creighton on New Year’s Eve. But aside from Hall and sometime-starter Demetric Williams, fans at CU and all across the Valley will need their roster sheets handy when watching Wichita State early in the season.
Still, you’d be foolish to think Marshall’s team won’t be better in February than it is in November and December. While inexperienced at the Division I level, the newcomers Marshall brings to Wichita are by all accounts extremely athletic and talented. That includes Malcolm Armstead, who sat out last season so he could play his senior year at WSU instead of for Dana Altman at Oregon. Jays fans actually might remember Armstead, too; he was guarding Antoine Young in the waning seconds of the CBI Championship Game two seasons ago when Young committed a backcourt violation. The Ducks converted the game-winner the next trip down.
ANYWAY. I’ve learned not to sleep on the Shockers. I think the experience Creighton returns will win out during the long haul, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Marshall’s team gels late in MVC play and pushed the Bluejays during the race for the championship.
3. Northern Iowa (3rd, 9-9)
Ben Jacobsen just keeps it going, doesn’t he? Northern Iowa was one of five MVC teams to go 9-9 in conference play last season, tying for third place. Johnny Moran graduated, but this year Jacobsen returns four starters and his four top scorers from last season. Coach Jake also gets Matt Bohannon and Chris Olivier coming off first-year redshirt seasons, he welcomes true freshman Panthers Matt MacDougal (freshman from Cedar Rapids), and he finally gets to implement Tennessee transfer Wes Washpun in games.
The Panthers pose problems for Creighton each year. Last season was no different; CU split the teams’ two meetings, winning by 3 points in Omaha and losing by 3 in Cedar Falls. The key numbers in those games were 62 and 63 — the Bluejays’ point totals in two contests against UNI. Those totals were far below Creighton’s average of 79.2 points per game.
I’m not expecting anything less than two (or potentially three) close games between the Jays and the Panthers this season.
4. Illinois State (3rd, 9-9)
To say the Redbirds came on strong during the stretch last season is an understatement. They were a few key possessions away from upsetting Creighton in the MVC Championship game and stealing a third NCAA Tournament bid for the Valley. They were a few possessions away from beating Stanford in the NIT, instead losing in what was their third consecutive overtime game to end the year.
Illinois State was poised to return the entirety of their upstart team this season. Then their coach bolted. Tim Jankovich decided he’d rather be associate head coach for Larry Brown at SMU instead of run the show in Normal. Then Nic Moore, last year’s point guard and a promising sophomore-to-be, decided to follow Jank to Dallas.
So, while Jackie Carmichael and Tyler Brown and John Wilkins and Jon Ekey are back, someone needs to run the show. And not just on the court at the point guard position. New head coach Dan Muller is a legend at ISU; he was the point guard the last time the Redbirds made an NCAA Tournament. There is experience all around, and Muller will need it while he finds a point guard who can step in for Moore.
5. Evansville (3rd, 9-9)
Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Colt Ryan. Oh, and still not a lot of help in the frontcourt.
6. Drake (3rd, 9-9)
The Bulldogs took part in last season’s jumbled third-place tie. But due to tiebreakers, Drake was one of four teams to play on the first day of the MVC Tournament. The Bulldogs won their Thursday night game, and as a reward got a shot at Creighton in the quarterfinals. Rayvonte Rice and Ben Simon pushed the Jays in a close game, but Drake ultimately lost.
What ensued in the coming months was a roster overhaul, starting with the departure of Rice, the team’s dynamic swing guard, to the University of Illinois. He’s the only starter from last year’s team to leave, but Rice was a big cog in Drake’s success.
Mark Phelps’ team lost 7 lettermen total from last year’s team. Coach Phelps will replace those pieces with 9 newcomers; 10 if you count the return of Seth VanDeest. If Phelps and his staff can have everyone on the same page come conference play, the Bulldogs could fight for an upper-half finish in the league. If the onslaught of inexperience overruns the team’s chemistry, Thursday night is a possibility yet again.
7. Indiana State (8th, 8-10)
The Sycamores won’t celebrate Senior Night this year. With only juniors, sophomores, and a few freshmen on the roster, Greg Lansing will rely on returner Jake Odom and a host of newcomers to improve on last year’s 8-10 league record.
Two seasons ago Odum took the Trees to an NCAA Tournament by winning Arch Madness. When healthy, he’s as tough a guard as there is in the conference. But can he carry the weight of replacing Dwayne Lathan (12.3 ppg), Carl Richard (9.7 ppg), Myles Walker (7.8 ppg), and Jordan Printy (7.3 ppg)?
Those four usual starters were the team’s top four scorers, too, aside from Odum (10.8 ppg). Returner R.J. Mahurin started 6 games for Lansing last season, so he’ll be in the mix. So will transfers Dawon Cummings (Coffeyville CC) and Manny Arop (Gonzaga).
8. Bradley (10th, 2-16)
Geno Ford had a rough first season at the helm in Peoria. The Braves could ride Taylor Brown only so much, and BU only won two league games all year. Walt Lemon Jr. and Dyricus Simms-Edwards are the team’s leading returning scorers. Will Egolf comes back for a sixth season and Jordan Prosser also returns, giving the Braves some experience in the frontcourt.
For the Braves to improve much from last season, Tyshon Pickett will need to step in as a junior college transfer and do many of the things that made Brown such a versatile performer when healthy.
9. Missouri State (3rd, 9-9)
Paul Lusk’s team was dealt a tough blow when senior swingman Jamar Gulley hurt his knee in the offseason. He will miss the year, meaning that Lusk effectively another starter to go along with Kyle Weems, Michael Bizoukas, and Caleb Patterson. Isaiah Rhine is also gone from last year, leaving Anthony Downing (11.5 ppg) and Keith Pickens (4.8 ppg) to pick up the slack alongside Nathan Sheer and Christian Kirk.
The Bears bring in six newcomers, four of which are true freshmen. Drew Wilson and Dorrian Williams redshirted last year, while Gavin Thurman, Marcus Marshall, Michael Simpson, and Bruce Marshall will likely see opportunities to make their mark on the Missouri State program earlier than later.
10. Southern Illinois (9th, 5-13)
Barry Hinson is back! Hinson, the former head coach at Missouri State, left his post on Bill Self’s staff at Kansas for a chance to coach in the Valley again. He takes over for Chris Lowery at SIU. And the Salukis need all of the help Hinson can offer.
Player defections and ineffective recruiting classes have left the Dawgs in a tough spot. Things fell apart late last season for SIU. Following a 53-52 win in Carbondale against Evansville on February 4, the Salukis lost seven straight games. SIU was blown out by Indiana State on Thursday night in St. Louis, 66-51, the final game Lowery would coach at the school. He’s off to work for his former boss Bruce Weber at Kansas State.
Meanwhile, Hinson has to cobble together a competitive team around a nucleus of returners Jeff Early, Dantiel Daniels, Kendal Brown-Surles, T.J. Lindsay, and Davante Drinkard. Hinson doesn’t have to deal with Justin Bocot, and he already suspended Diamond Taylor indefinitely in September. If everyone buys into Hinson’s plan and the team returns to the defensive stalwart it used to be, the Salukis could surprise some teams in the Valley.