“We’re a better defensive team than we are an offensive team right now. We’ll get prettier as the season goes on, but the important thing right now is that we find ways to grit it out and get wins.”
~ Creighton Head Coach Greg McDermott, after a 63-58 win against Louisiana
Rolling out of bed and firing up the laptop, this is the quote I tried to swallow with my shredded wheat. Neither tasted good. I thought some coffee would perk up my opinion of Creighton’s 63-58 win against Louisiana last night. But the caffeine failed to suppress a nagging notion that plagued me during my drive to work: I haven’t seen a sloppier start to a season, at least offensively, in the past few years than I’m witnessing right now, right?
How quickly a fanbase spoils, right? I should be looking at this new era of Bluejays basketball with a sunnier disposition, considering next week marks Greg McDermott’s seventh month as the head coach at the Hilltop. Given last season’s disappointing 18-16 record, I should be pleased with a 3-0 start and the positive energy and emotion emanating from the basketball program. And since defense wins championships (three of the last four MVC regular season champs finished first in the league in opponent scoring average), I should be pleased with the Bluejays’ defensive effort and production three games into the season.
Pregame videos and in-game promotions are fun. But is it too much to ask as a paying customer to see the scoreboard light up, too? Look, I’m happy the Bluejays won last night. And I’m ecstatic that Creighton hasn’t succumbed to early season losses like so many of the Jays’ Valley brethren have (the Valley is a collective 16-8 so far). Their passing looks crisper than in recent seasons. Communication is clearly improved. And the freshmen are filling in admirably for a few injured returners. But through three games, all those positives haven’t amounted to much in the way of offensive production.
Winning trumps everything else. I know. I get it. But surely I’m not the only one worried about the drop in offensive production through the first 10% of Creighton’s season compared to previous years? I pulled some numbers and threw them into the following table, which is sortable for your pleasure.
Creighton Offense Through 3 Games
| Season | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT % | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | 61 | 162 | 37.6 | 17 | 54 | 31.4 | 69 | 85 | 81.1 | 69.3 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | 180 | 45.5 | 30 | 84 | 35.7 | 44 | 61 | 72.1 | 79.3 |
| 2008-09 | 76 | 164 | 46.3 | 20 | 56 | 35.7 | 79 | 100 | 79.0 | 83.6 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | 178 | 46.0 | 25 | 63 | 39.6 | 35 | 53 | 66.0 | 74.6 |
Comparing the first three games of this season to the first three in each of the past three seasons, the differences are glaring. I understand this is a small sample size. But what better place to jump to ill-informed conclusions than a blog?! These 12 games represent an 11-1 record, with the lone loss coming against Dayton on the road. Surprisingly, the Bluejays scored 80 points in that game and lost. Perhaps not surprisingly, the game was on the road — the only one of the dozen games that came away from Omaha.
The opponents represent a mix of overmatched low-major teams (Mississippi Valley State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Florida A&M), bottom-level BCS conference schools (DePaul, Nebraska), and feisty fellow mid-major schools (Dayton, New Mexico). So, in short, an amalgamation of the types of teams Creighton seems to play during each basketball season’s infancy. Here’s what we know.
- The Bluejays are shooting less than 10 percentage points worse from the field through three games than they did the previous three seasons.
- Creighton’s connecting on just 31% of its 3-point attempts, 4 percentage points worse than the past two seasons, and 8 percentage points less than Kaleb Korver, Kenny Lawson, and Casey Harriman’s freshman campaign in 2007-2008.
- Meanwhile, the Bluejays are making up for missed jump shots with made free throws. The Jays are hitting 81% of their attempts from the charity stripe, up from last season’s 72% start and exponentially greater than the 66% in Korver, Lawson, and Harriman’s first year.
Personnel changes. Opponents aren’t consistent from year to year. But at quick glance, the coaching staff’s focus on practicing defense has resulted in diminishing returns on offense. After limiting the Ragin’ Cajuns to 33.8% shooting from the field, well below their early season average of 50.8%, McDermott told the Omaha World-Herald, “We made them work for what they got. In the early going, we spent the lion’s share of our (practice) time on our defense, and that’s showing.
He’s right. It shows in two specific stats, too. Again, here’s a table. Again, it’s sortable. These are Creighton’s opponents’ offensive statistics for the first three games of this and the past three seasons.
Opponents' Offense Through 3 Games
| Season | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT % | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | 72 | 182 | 39.5 | 28 | 71 | 39.4 | 13 | 26 | 50.0 | 61.6 |
| 2009-10 | 71 | 172 | 41.2 | 23 | 69 | 33.3 | 43 | 57 | 75.4 | 69.3 |
| 2008-09 | 68 | 165 | 41.2 | 12 | 46 | 26.0 | 42 | 61 | 68.8 | 63.3 |
| 2007-08 | 61 | 150 | 40.6 | 12 | 43 | 27.9 | 36 | 54 | 66.6 | 56.6 |
CU opponents have hit shots at about a 40% clip from the field in the first few games of all four seasons. But McDermott’s first Creighton team is forcing opponents to shoot from the 3-point range (low-percentage shots) and not allowing many free throws (high-percentage chances). They haven’t swiped as many steals this year compared to the same timeframe in previous seasons, nor have they turned opponents over as often. But whatever Mac and his staff are preaching and practicing, it is working.
The question, then, is whether the defense can continue to protect the offense from its growing pains as the competition gets tougher? I’m not taking anything away from Creighton’s first three opponents of 2010-11, but the schedule takes on a slightly greater degree of difficulty the next few weeks.
Sure, the Bluejays may roll into downtown Des Moines this weekend and connect from all areas of the court, defeating Iowa State with a mixture of solid defense and efficient offense. But there are a few immediate issues Mac and his staff should address for that to happen, and for the Jays to translate continued improvement into victories.
Kenny Lawson is shooting just 39.1% from the field. Three games into his senior season, and a few weeks after being named the preseason Player of the Year in the Missouri Valley Conference, The Sheriff is shooting far worse than his career average. Coming into this season, Lawson was a 53.6% shooter during his Creighton career. Every one of the fans in attendance at Creighton’s home games this season know Lawson can make more shots than he has. And he is still pouring in 12 points and slightly fewer than 8 rebounds a night through three games. But if the Bluejays are going to grind out wins using their defense, they need him to dominate the paint offensively.
Ethan Wragge is nowhere to be found. And with his absence, neither is a proven and consistent 3-point threat. Creighton fans were counting on the sophomore sharpshooter to connect early and often from outside. But a foot injury has left the forward on the bench during the first three games. Others are taking shots from long range, but the team’s hitting 3s at just a 31% clip. Lawson, the team’s top post player, has as many made 3s as Darryl Ashford, a second-year junior college player looking to solidify more playing time on the wing. Josh Jones is off to a slow start offensively for a second consecutive season; he is 0-6 from 3-point range through three games. If the Bluejays are going to stretch defenses away from Lawson and the post, they need to hit some long-range shots.
McDermott’s Northern Iowa teams made defense their calling card while advancing to three NCAA Tournaments (improving from 5th in the Valley in opponent ppg in 2003-04, to 4th in 2004-05, to 2nd in 2005-06). Through three games, Mac’s emphasis on defense is evident. What’s not, however, is how quickly the Bluejays will catch fire on the offensive end. Hopefully it is sooner rather than later.