Creighton has precious little time to lick their wounds after Saturday night’s loss to Providence, as their next challenge is without a doubt their steepest one so far this year — a road game at #4 Villanova, a team off to a 16-1 start. They’ve beaten both Kansas and #10 Iowa, and their only loss came on the road at undefeated and second-ranked Syracuse. They also beat Providence by 30, 91-61, two weeks ago for whatever that’s worth.
Statistically, at least on the surface, these teams look pretty similar. CU leads the Big East in scoring at 81.8 points per game, while Villanova is second at 81.3. Villanova gives up 65.4 points per game, second in the league, while Creighton gives up 65.9, good for third in the league. Creighton makes 10.8 three-pointers a game, best in the league, while ‘Nova makes 8.9 threes a game, which is second. CU dishes out 18.5 assists a game, the most in the Big East, while Villanova has the second most at 16.2 a game. And in rebounding margin, Villanova outrebounds opponents by an average of 5.6 a game, second most in the league, while Creighton is at +5.2, third best in the league.
Under the surface, the way these two teams arrive at those numbers is drastically different. Doug McDermott does everything for the Jays — he’s taken almost twice as many shots as anyone else, he scores more than 25% of their points, etcetera etcetera Doug is awesome yadda yadda yadda. His supporting cast is solid, as we all know, but if Doug has a terrible night it’s pretty likely the Bluejays will have an even worse night (see: George Washington). McDermott has led the way in every game but two — the aforementioned G.W. disaster, and the win over St. Joseph’s. In both games, Ethan Wragge was the leading scorer.
Villanova, on the other hand, has JayVaughn Pinkston and eight other guys that take turns as the top guy — they’ve assembled a team that’s as deep 1-9 as any team in America, and might be THE deepest, as they have five players averaging 9.7 points a game or more. Pinkston (6’7″, 240) leads them in scoring at 15.6 points per game, but has only led them in scoring in six of their 17 games. James Bell (6’6″, 220) averages 13.9 points a game and has also led them in scoring six times; Darrun Hilliard (6’6″, 215) averages 13.7 points per game and has led them in scoring four times; and Josh Hart (6’5″, 205) led them in scoring the other game, while averaging 10.1 points for the season. It’s a tall task to stop Pinkston, but even if you manage to hold him in check, Bell, Hilliard and Hart are just as capable of hanging 20+ on you. And if all four of those guys have an off night together, Ryan Arcidiacono (6’3″, 195) averages 9.7 points a game, ready to fill the void.
That’s five players all capable of beating you, and we haven’t even talked about Daniel Ochefu, a 6’11”, 250 pound guy who may be the toughest matchup for Creighton. He averages just 4.9 points a game for the season, but since conference play started the sophomore big man has become an extremely efficient scorer — he’s 16-20 from the field in five games. Any points they get from Ochefu are a bonus, though, because his true value comes defensively — he averages more than 2 blocks a game, or over 10% of opponents shots when he’s on the floor (!!!) — and on the glass, as he’s second on the team in rebounding at 5.8 a game.
No wonder they’re ranked in the top five. This is an elite team. They come at you in waves, relentlessly throwing tremendous players at you. There’s teams rated higher than the Wildcats, but I’m not sure there’s a better team — they’re talented, they’re deep, they’re well-coached, and they’re hot right now. They’re a Final Four caliber team, no doubt about it. If Villanova dominates the glass the way Providence did on Saturday, there’s very few scenarios that don’t involve an Act of God that end in a Creighton victory. The good news is, that really hasn’t happened this year outside of the Providence game, so until proven otherwise, I’ll treat that as a statistical outlier.
Pull off the upset, and it’ll be a signature win come March. Play competitively but lose, and they come home to play three straight very winnable games (Georgetown, St. John’s, DePaul) followed by two winnable games with Grant Gibbs likely back on the court (St. John’s, Butler). Even with a loss tonight, the oddsmakers will favor them to win all five of those games, which would make them 10-2 before the rematch with Villanova in Omaha on February 16.
The only outcome that would concern me is a blowout loss. CU needs to be competitive in this one, from a confidence standpoint and a perception standpoint. I believe they will be. And if Ethan Wragge gets hot, and Doug McDermott has one of his semi-annual scoring binges, who knows?
About the Wildcats: The Wildcats score 81.3 points per game and yield just 65.4 points per contest, and shoot 46.1 percent from the field, 35.0 percent from three-point land and 72.4 percent from downtown … The Wildcats were 3-0 at Wells Fargo Arena last season, downing a trio of teams ranked in the top five of the Associated Press poll: Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown … Jay Wright owns a 395-230 record in his 20th season as a head coach, which includes a 273-145 mark in 13 years at Villanova. He was previously head coach at Hofstra for seven seasons.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton has lost its last 11 contests against a ranked team, last winning on March 4, 2007 with a 67-61 win over No. 11 Southern Illinois in the MVC Tournament title game in St. Louis, Mo., and they’ve lost their last 22 games against top-10 teams since February 9, 1974, a 75-69 win at No. 6 Marquette … This will mark Creighton’s fifth contest played in Philadelphia in the last three seasons, as they lost to Saint Joseph’s at Hagan Arena on Dec. 10, 2011, split a pair of NCAA Tournament games at Wells Fargo Center last March, and defeated Saint Joseph’s at Hagan Arena earlier this season … Creighton never led and was never even tied on Saturday against Providence, the first time that’s happened in the Greg McDermott Era — the last time was on February 6, 2010, when Dana Altman was still the coach.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott is close to three milestones, all of which he could get to on Monday night. He’s is eight free throws made shy of moving into second place in Creighton history with 526, passing Elton Tuttle. Of note, McDermott made 23 straight foul shots over the course of his two games at Wells Fargo Center last March.
He’s also seven rebounds shy of moving into fourth place in Creighton history with 980, passing Bob Portman (1966-69), and five points shy of moving into 23rd place in NCAA history in scoring, passing David Robinson (2,669) and 15 points shy of passing Bo McCalebb (2,689) for 22nd place.
Out of Context Ron Swanson Quote: “The less I know about other people’s affairs, the happier I am. I’m not interested in caring about people. I once worked with a guy for three years and never learned his name. Best friend I ever had. We still never talk sometimes.”
The Series: This will be the first meeting between Villanova and Creighton in 61 years; they’ve played three times, all in Philadelphia, and ‘Nova has won all three. Greg McDermott has never faced Villanova nor Jay Wright, and Wright has never faced Creighton, so this will be new for everyone.
The Last Time They Played: Villanova defeated the Bluejays 79-61 on January 9, 1952.
Creighton may not be familiar with ‘Nova, as many of the players’ parents weren’t even born the last time these teams met, but the Jays are very familiar with the Wells Fargo Center — Creighton played a pair of games at the arena last season in the NCAA Tournament, defeating Cincinnati before falling in the third round to No. 6 Duke.
Gratuitous Linkage: The great Eammon Brennan of ESPN.com writes about how Providence cracked the code for beating Creighton, but that’s it’s easier said than duplicated. “Stopping Creighton’s offense asks much more of a defense than the awareness that it is playing against the best offensive basketball player of the last five years. Because, well, duh. No, beating Creighton requires something like holistic preventative dedication. Keep the Bluejays from lighting you up on the perimeter, plan to exploit those misses if they come, and not only can you win, at that point you should.”
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On January 20, 2003 (also a Monday!), #10 Creighton upended Illinois State 95-82 at the Civic in a career-night for Larry House, who scored 23 points with 8 rebounds. While “La Casa” had a huge game, the Jays’ press was the real star, forcing 13 turnovers much to the delight of the sold-out crowd. We looked back at this game as part of the “Bluejay Rewind” series this summer.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: Creighton needs a little Rocky IV magic tonight.
The Bottom Line: I don’t know what the outcome will be tonight. One thing I’m certain of, though: the Jays will acquit themselves much better Monday night than they did on Saturday. I had this penciled in as a loss coming into the season, though, and while I hope like heck I’m wrong, this feels like a “L” to me.
Villanova 83, Creighton 81