When Xavier visited Omaha in early January, they were 13-3 overall and 3-0 in the league, and were positioning themselves to be a favorite for the regular season title. Nothing that happened that Sunday afternoon changed anyone’s minds; Creighton won 95-89 in one of the most competitive, hard-fought, well-earned wins in recent memory.
Since then, the Musketeers have played themselves out of title consideration, going 6-6 over the next 12 games. They haven’t played themselves out of the NCAA Tourney yet, but their fate is a whole heckuva lot more dependent on other teams than it was six weeks ago — in other words, they’re squarely on the bubble. At 19-9 and 9-6 in the league, they need wins, and ideally one more “big” win. Thanks to the way the schedule breaks for them, they get two top ten teams in the season’s final week, both at home, so despite their stumbles over the last month and a half, the Musketeers still control their own fate. Creighton visits tomorrow, and Villanova plays there on Thursday, with a road game at Seton Hall sprinkled in between. Helluva final week for Xavier. Jeez.
How did they get here? A three-game losing streak from January 25-February 3 (at Providence, at Villanova, and a ghastly loss at home to Seton Hall) sticks out like a sore thumb. They surrendered 80+ points in two of those three defeats, showing signs that their defense was a liability, and when they gave up 81 in a loss at Marquette on February 15, it started a full-scale meltdown on their fan message boards.
Banners on the Parkway ran a three-part series examining the breakdowns in their defense. They run a variation on Dick Bennett’s old “Pack-line” defense, and much like Bennett’s successful defenses at Washington State, the basic premise is similar to a sagging man-to-man: to clog the inside, protect the paint, and prevent dribble-penetration. Generally, they have one defender pressuring the ball outside, and the other four defenders inside the pack line, or within an imaginary line a set distance from the basket.
For Xavier, that line has generally been about two feet inside the arc, and it’s killed them this year against teams that can shoot the three. In Big East play, opponents are getting 32.9% of their points from behind the arc and taking 35.7% of their shots from long range. They also force a turnover on just 14.3% of possessions, worst in the Big East, and combined with their inability to close on open shooters on the perimeter, it’s been deadly.
In a way, this is a game of wild mismatches on both ends. Xavier doesn’t defend the three very well, and Creighton shoots it better than anyone in the country. Creighton doesn’t have anyone that can consistently stop Matt Stainbrook, Xavier’s 6’10”, 260 pound center, by himself, but Stainbrook is a poor defender away from the basket, making him a bad matchup against either Ethan Wragge or Doug McDermott. And Xavier is +5.6 on the boards for the season and has outrebounded 20 of 28 opponents thus far, while Creighton has had their struggles on the glass, particularly on the offensive end.
In that first game, Creighton came out determined to keep Stainbrook from beating them in the paint, and focusing so much attention inside left the perimeter open. Xavier dropped four bombs in the first two minutes, three of them by Justin Martin, en route to a 12-0 lead. It forced CU to adjust, which opened up the lane for Stainbrook. That was a tradeoff the Jays had to make, but it worked because Stainbrook had trouble guarding away from the basket — Wragge had a huge day, going 5-10 from three-point range, including one of his infamous “Wragge Bomb” sequences of three straight treys.
Stainbrook had a double-double, with 15 points and 11 rebounds, but McDermott and Wragge combined for 50 points and 10 boards, effectively negating his contribution. They’d make that trade again, I think.
Semaj Christon, their 6’3″ sophomore guard that leads the team in three categories (averaging 16.5 points, 4.1 assists and 1.3 steals per game), had 27 points on 10-17 shooting in the first matchup, including 2-3 from three-point range and 5-7 from the line. He’s an explosive player that can score from anywhere, and has a deep skillset — he’s a good defender, he makes smart passes, he gets his teammates involved, and he’s a capable rebounder. Creighton really had no answer for him, and struggled to keep him out of the paint.
This is a huge game for both teams. A win for Creighton gives them another Top 50 win (and a road one at that) as they march towards a Big East title and a possible two-seed in the NCAA Tourney. For Xavier, it’s an opportunity to pick up their 20th win of the year, and to notch an important late-season triumph over a top team — something that will be important when their resume is compared to other bubble teams. They always draw well, having sold out 116 of 214 all-time games at Cintas Center, averaging 10,010 fans all-time to the 10,250 seat arena since it opened in 2000-01, but this will be this first time they’ve sold standing-room-only tickets to a game. It should be an electric atmosphere. This particular Creighton team has usually played it’s best basketball in those kind of environs, so I expect them to play well and be in position to get a win. Can they pull it out? That remains to be seen.
Catching Up with the Musketeers: Xavier sophomore All-American candidate Semaj Christon has scored in double figures in 16 straight games, and leads XU in scoring (7th in BE at 16.5 ppg.), including 18.0 ppg. and 54.1% shooting in Big East play … Xavier junior Dee Davis is second in the Big East in assists at 5.1 apg., while Christon is 7th at 4.1 apg … Xavier junior Matt Stainbrook leads the Musketeers in rebounding (2nd in Big East at 8.1 rpg.) and is third in scoring (11.1 ppg.) … Junior Justin Martin has averaged 13.9 ppg. and 5.3 rpg. in Big East play and has scored in double figures in 12 of 15 Big East games … Freshman swingman Jalen Reynolds had 17 points and 16 rebounds in XU’s 65-53 road win over St. John’s earlier this week.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton is ranked ninth in this week’s Associated Press poll. This is the 64th different week all-time the Bluejays have been ranked in the AP poll, but the best ranking ever … This year’s Creighton team has clinched no worse than a second-place finish. Including this year, 12 of Creighton’s last 17 teams have finished either first or second the regular-season race of league play, and two of the five that didn’t won the MVC Tournament … Creighton is 24-10 in true road games the past three years, and 36-13 when you also include neutral site games. This year’s team is 7-2 in true road games and 1-2 at neutral sites.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott had 35 points in the initial meeting with Xavier this season. With 30 or more points on Saturday, he can do something not done in nearly 30 years. No Creighton player has had multiple games of 30+ points vs. the same team since Benoit Benjamin did it against Indiana State in the 1984-85 campaign.
Sounds to me like it’s time to erase another record from the books. Sorry, Big Ben.
Out of Context Ron Swanson Quote: “One rage every three months is permitted. Try not to hurt anyone who doesn’t deserve it.”
The Last Time They Played: Both teams made seven three-pointers in a wild first half, with Xavier going up 12-0 two minutes in and Creighton battling back to lead 39-35 at the break. In the opening moments of the second stanza, Doug McDermott scored twice and then Ethan Wragge made a trio of threes, each one further away than the last, in the span of 62 seconds. When his flurry was finished, Creighton led 52-41. They’d eventually build a lead as large as 14 points, and had a nine-point lead with 1:08 to play. A furious comeback, fueled by Creighton’s inability to get the ball inbounds, squandered most of the lead and forced Austin Chatman to make two nail-biting free throws to clinch the 95-89 win.
The Series: Xavier owns a 9-7 lead in the series with Creighton, including a 5-4 mark in Cincinnati. Three of Creighton’s past four trips to Cincinnati have been decided by two points or less, including game-winners in the last 25 seconds by XU’s David West (2002) and CU’s Tyler McKinney (2004).
Gratuitous Linkage: WBR exchanged a Q&A with Banners on the Parkway this week discussing this matchup. Here’s our answers to their questions, and their answers to our questions.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On March 1, 1991, Creighton beat Drake 70-59 in their first-ever MVC Tournament game in St. Louis. MVC Player of the Year Chad Gallagher was limited by the flu to just 14 points, and Bob Harstad scored just seven points after spraining his toe in the first half, the only time all season he failed to score in double-figures.
Duan Cole and Latrell Wrightsell were a more-than-capable Substitute Dynamic Duo. Cole scored 21 points, 17 of them in the first half when the outcome was still in doubt, and Wrightsell had a remarkable eight — yes, eight — steals to go along with eight points. Those steals keyed a 17-0 run to end the first half that effectively won the game for the Jays; they led 46-26 at the break and coasted to a 77-58 win.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line: Another Xavier-Creighton duel, another shootout, another game decided in the final minute. Isn’t that the way it always goes with these two?
Creighton 86, Xavier 83