It’s been a strange week for basketball fans in Omaha. The first half of the week was dominated by talk about Josh Jones’ health, with thoughts and prayers sent his way following his pre-game blackout in Lincoln. No sooner had he held his press conference to update everyone on his status than news of the imminent demise of the Big East Conference broke — with Creighton prominently mentioned as one of the potential options to complement the seven Catholic schools in the new league.
There’s been a lot of nervous energy and chewed fingernails among Jays’ fans, and almost none of it has concerned their next opponent. Luckily, players and coaches have probably been more closed-off from the Big East rumors…or at least, I hope so, because what should be one of the marquee games of the non-conference schedule has received almost zero interest on Twitter and message boards due to a preoccupation with conference affiliation.
If they’re half as distracted as the fan base is, they’re in for a rude awakening Saturday night in Berkeley. Cal has a very particular set of skills that make them a nightmare for teams like Creighton — the Bears boast one of the nation’s best backcourts, with Allen Crabbe (21.9 ppg., 5.6 rpg.) and Justin Cobbs (17.8 ppg., 4.1 rpg., 3.6 apg.) combining for nearly 40 points per game. The pair has combined to score 317 of Cal’s 579 points and connected on 103 of the Bears’ 205 field goals this season. As if that wasn’t frightening enough, the duo is shooting a combined .502 (103-of-205) from the floor.
Crabbe is a smooth shooter who’s been known to go off for 30+ points when he gets hot, such as earlier this season against Pepperdine when he made 4-7 from three and 10-18 overall for 33 points. Cobbs, meanwhile, is a guard whose forte is driving to the rim and getting high-percentage shots — or getting fouled. It was the latter skill which played a key role when the Bears took on Drake earlier this season; Cobbs was able to penetrate the defense time after time and get to the rim, and he converted 11-13 free throws en route to 21 points.
As anyone who’s watched the Jays the last two years can tell you, they’re usually able to neutralize opponent’s big men, but they struggle to guard the perimeter and to cut down on dribble-penetration. They’ve given up career nights to less talented guards than Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs, and will be in for a long night if both are allowed to get hot on Saturday. Working in the Jays’ favor is the fact that Cobbs has been a turnover machine lately, giving it away seven times versus zero assists in a 81-56 loss to Wisconsin, and five times in a one-point loss to UNLV. Watching film of those two games, the most concerning thing for the Bears has to be the fact that of those 12 turnovers, the vast majority were the result of bad decision making on passes or because he tried to drive into traffic.
Also working in the Jays favor is the Bears post players are better suited for mid-range jumpers than they are for banging down low, and that defensively they have difficulty against big, physical centers. Richard Solomon, a 6’10”, 235 pound junior, gets the bulk of the minutes in the middle, and he prefers to play away from the rim — in scoring 14 points against UNLV, he did so on a variety on 8-10 foot jumpers. David Kravish starts alongside Solomon, and the 6’9″, 221 pound sophomore also prefers a more finesse style of post play.
Their struggles against physical post players have forced coach Mike Montgomery to employ a lot of zone to protect their big men from foul trouble (and fatigue — the rotation is just seven deep). Unfortunately, their zone defense leaves them vulnerable on the boards; on the season, they’re +5 on the boards, but against UNLV’s physical interior play, they gave up a ghastly 13 offensive rebounds.
Given Cal’s seeming mismatch in trying to guard a player of Gregory Echenique’s size — and in stopping him from scoring — the key for Creighton would seem to be keeping Crabbe and Cobbs (I feel like that should be a buddy cop show on cable — “Crabbe & Cobbs!”) from finding their offensive rhythm early. If the Jays are successful at that, they should be able to come home with a win. But if, as has happened a lot the last two years, Crabbe and Cobbs are allowed to score at will, a lot of Jays fans back in Omaha will be going to bed early.
About the Golden Bears: The Bears are 31-4 in nonconference home games under Mike Montgomery. The UNLV loss earlier this week was their first non-conference setback at home since dropping a 78-63 decision to No. 3 Kansas on Dec. 22, 2010 … Cal has out-rebounded six of its first eight opponents with a 38.2 rpg. average. The Bears recorded 40 or more rebounds in four-straight games earlier this season for the first time since the 1997-98 campaign … With an average of 21.9 points per game through the season’s first eight contests, Crabbe is the Pac-12 Conference’s leading scorer by two full points and ranks sixth in the nation overall through Wednesday’s games … Missouri transfer Ricky Kreklow, a one-time Creighton recruit, played just two games earlier this season before a foot injury sidelined him.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton has started 9-1 or better for the second time in as many seasons, and 16th time overall … Grant Gibbs led the MVC with 176 assists last season, and his 66 helpers this season are already 21 more than any other Valley player. In the last three games, Gibbs has 27 assists and just one turnover (9/0 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 10/1 at Nebraska, 8/0 vs. Akron); for the year, Gibbs owns a 66/9 assist/turnover ratio … Creighton and California share one common foe so far this season — Creighton beat Wisconsin 84-74 in Las Vegas, while the Badgers beat Cal 81-56 in Madison … Creighton is 3-11 all-time in road games against the current membership of the Pacific-12 Conference. Two of those wins came in 1929 against recent league newcomer Colorado, and the only other road victory in program history came in 1976 against Oregon State.
The RUN-DMD Show: Creighton improved to 7-1 in the past two seasons vs. teams from BCS conferences with wins in Las Vegas two weeks ago over Wisconsin (Big 10) and Arizona State (Pac 12) and last Thursday’s victory at Nebraska. Last year Creighton defeated Alabama (SEC) as well as Big 10 foes Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa, losing only to North Carolina (ACC) in the NCAA Tournament.
In those eight games, All-American Doug McDermott has averaged 24.8 points and 8.3 rebounds, well above his career averages (19.2 ppg., 7.6 rpg.)
The Last Time They Played: Creighton lost to Cal 70-49 on November 28, 1987 in a game played in Berkeley. Employing a half-court trap that confused Tony Barone’s young squad, Cal flustered the Jays to the tune of 21 turnovers. Senior guard Rod Mason led the Bluejays with 17 points. Freshman center Chad Gallagher joined Mason in double figures with 10 points, while the rest of the starting lineup — freshman forwards Bob Harstad and Chris Rodgers, and junior guard James Farr — combined for only eight points.
The Series: California has won both previous meetings against Creighton. The Golden Bears won 41-35 in Omaha in 1938, then claimed a 70-49 decision in Berkeley in 1987.
Greg McDermott is 0-1 in his career against California, falling 82-63 at Haas Pavilion on Dec. 11, 2009 while the head coach at Iowa State.
Gratuitous Linkage: California Golden Blogs has two recaps of Cal’s loss to UNLV — the “Negative Nancy” version and a more positive spin. Both offer terrific insights to Cal’s strengths and struggles.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 15, 2008, Creighton defeated Southern 71-60 in the second of two Omaha-based games of the Las Vegas Classic. Booker Woodfox had 17 points, including three-pointers on three straight second-half possessions and 5-9 overall, as the Jays advanced to take on DePaul in Vegas.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: Seems appropriate, no?
The Bottom Line: Creighton will need to bring their “A” game defensively to give themselves a win. Do that, and they will.
Jays 78, Cal 69