[dropcap]How[/dropcap] good (or mediocre) is Tulsa?
That’s the question everyone would like to know. They return 11 players and four starters from their NCAA Tourney team of a year ago, leading most prognosticators to believe they’d make a return appearance this year. Through six games, they’re 3-3, and have been beaten soundly by both Wichita State (75-55) and Oklahoma State (73-58). Are those losses — and the way they happened — indicative of a team adjusting to a new coach, or of something more systemic?
The first part of that equation is Frank Haith, who left Missouri for Tulsa to replace Danny Manning when he departed for Wake Forest. Haith coached three seasons at Missouri with a gleaming 76-28 record, but his Tigers were bounced from the 2012 tourney by 15 seed Norfolk State in the first game (as a #2 seed!), from the 2013 tourney by eight-seed Colorado State in the first game, and then missed the NCAA Tournament entirely in 2014 despite high expectations.
Particularly in his final season in Columbia, the Tigers were erratic (to be kind) on defense and turnover-prone on offense. Observers frequently noted that they looked like a team whose pieces didn’t fit together right. Fair or not, Haith’s reputation as a head coach is that his teams are frequently good enough to garner high expectations, but not able to follow through on those expectations. From his 2009 squad at Miami that was ranked 16th in the preseason but finished with a losing record in the ACC and missed the NCAA Tournament, to his first Missouri team that was upset by a 15 seed in the tourney and subsequent Mizzou squads that were highly-touted but ultimately disappointing, his teams have repeated the scenario time after time.
It’s early, but with the way they’ve played early on, it’s obvious the Golden Hurricane are struggling to adapt to their new coach. When WBR’s Patrick Marshall talked to Kelly Hines of the Tulsa World, she confirmed as much, telling us that “Haith tweaked his style slightly to match what the team was successful with last year. They don’t have a lot of size, but they try to counter with athleticism. He wants a lot of ball movement, an uptempo offense. Defensively, he’s been willing to try a few things to see what will work, and to mixed results. It’s still a work in progress, a lot of inconsistency.”
If they’re trying to play up-tempo, the results don’t bear that out. A team that played at a fast pace a year ago, and had some success running with the Jays in Omaha, doesn’t resemble that squad at all through six games despite mostly the same personnel.
What about the other half of that equation? Statistically, they’re very similar to the team of a year ago; their shooting percentages from two-point range, three-point range, and the free throw line are close, and their point distribution between those three areas is virtually identical. The biggest change from a year ago is their pace of play — their adjusted tempo was 68.2 to rank 79th in 2013-14, and is 63.8 to rank 297th this year. They’re playing a much, much, much slower brand of basketball, but you don’t need advanced metrics like adjusted tempo to tell you that. In 2013-14, they scored fewer than 60 points just two times (59 points at TCU, 59 points vs UCLA in the NCAA’s). So far this year, they’ve failed to crack 60 points three times in six tries, and have scored 64 and 65 points in two other games.
The answer looks to me to be a little of both — the team is likely still adjusting to their new coach, but there’s systemic issues here too as Haith figures out how best to utilize the players he has. They might figure it out, but by that time, the Jays will be in the rear-view mirror. I like Creighton’s chances tonight.
***
Individually, James Woodard led the team in scoring at 15.5 points a game last year, and the 6’3″ guard is their top scorer again this year at 13.5 a game. A second-team All-CUSA selection a year ago, Woodard was remarkably consistent, scoring in double-figures 30 times, including 27 games in a row. He was the Golden Hurricane’s leading scorer in 20 games, and their leading rebounder in 15. The Jays got a taste of the latter a year ago, when Woodard led Tulsa with six rebounds in the game in Omaha.
Second-leading scorer Rashad Smith also returns, after averaging 12.0 points and 4.9 rebounds last year. Smith scored 21 points — including 13 in the second half — on 9-14 shooting in the game with Creighton last year, one of eight games where he scored 18 or more points. His offensive production is down so far this year at 7.8 points a game, but he’s been better on the glass at 6.5 rebounds a game, and remains a solid performer.
D’Andre Wright seemed poised for a breakout season after averaging 7.4 points and 3.9 boards last season, but has been plagued by foul trouble this year. As the lone big man in a starting lineup that features four guards, they need him to stay on the court, especially because he’s been terrific when he does play — he’s averaging 11.3 points and 4.5 rebounds a game, and the 6’9″ forward has range on his shot, as he showed by making three 3-pointers at Wichita State.
It’s the first true road game for the Jays, but it might not be a true road environment. The Reynolds Center has not had a sellout since a December 2, 2009, loss to Oklahoma State, and attendance at the 8,355-seat arena averaged 4,528 last season. When Creighton last visited in 2011, it was sparsely attended and eerily quiet at times.
It’s also a game Creighton desperately needs to win. Despite the win over #18 Oklahoma, it’s this week — road games at a pair of 2013 NCAA Tourney teams in Tulsa and Nebraska — that will make or break the national perception of the non-con schedule. Win both, and combined with the win over Oklahoma, the Jays will be in position to be on the right side of the bubble come March with even a .500 record in conference. Lose both, and the win over Oklahoma looks more like an outlier and the road to an at-large bid gets tougher. That we’re even discussing “at-large bid” is surprising, perhaps, but that’s how good that Oklahoma win will look in March, especially if it’s combined with two or three other solid non-conference wins. This is the week where they have their best chances to do that. They need to take advantage.
About the Golden Hurricane: The Golden Hurricane has outrebounded its first five opponents by a total of 212-195, an average of 35.3-32.5 per game … Tulsa has beaten Louisiana, Abilene Christian and Auburn, but lost away from home to Oral Roberts, Oklahoma State and Wichita State … Tulsa’s leading scorer, James Woodard (13.5 ppg.) is the brother of Oklahoma guard Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg.); in defeating his brother’s team, the Jays held Jordan Woodard was held to a season-low three points with four assists and four turnovers in 25 minutes, and he missed a pair of go-ahead three-pointers in the final 30 seconds of the game.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Avery Dingman had a huge game the last time the Jays played at Tulsa, scoring a career-best 21 points in December, 2012, with a career-high three steals. He made his first seven attempts and finished 8-for-9 from the field, including 5-of-6 from three-point land … Creighton is 24-12 in true road games the last four years, and 40-18 when you also include neutral site games … Creighton is 3-1 under Greg McDermott in its first true road game of the season, and 12-8 in its last 20 years.
The Last Time They Played: On November 23, 2013, the Jays defeated Tulsa 82-72 in Omaha. Austin Chatman had a career-high 19 points — 15 of them in the second half — and Doug McDermott added 33 points and 15 rebounds in the win.
The Series: These schools have a long history from their days in the Valley; they’ve met 78 times, with Tulsa holding a 43-35 edge, including a 28-11 record in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have won 14 of the past 20 meetings against Creighton, but the Jays have won all four of the most recent meetings.
Creighton head coach Greg McDermott is 3-0 against Tulsa, and Frank Haith is 1-0 against Creighton. His Miami Hurricanes won a 2006 NIT game in Omaha over the Jays. You might remember it.
Gratuitous Linkage: In the Tulsa World’s game preview, Haith tells the paper that “This is a huge game for us, as they all are, but this is without question. You have a chance to play a team that’s from a power conference (Big East) and is going to be in the NCAA Tournament, which bodes well for you if you’re able to have success.” Not might be in the NCAA Tournament, he went all in — is going to be. I hope he’s right. It would shock a helluva lot of people on the Underground, that’s for sure.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 3, 2013, Creighton won at Long Beach State, 78-61, following up a disappointing holiday tournament with a solid road win. The Jays lept out to a 48-28 lead at halftime, thanks to making 10-17 three-pointers to stun the home crowd. It was the first start for Ethan Wragge, as the Jays looked to get his offense into the game earlier, and he rewarded his coach with 15 points including back-to-back threes during the early moments of the second half.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: I heard this on XM last week, and it’s still not entirely believable to me. Alt-Rock band Kasabian doing a entirely-serious (well, until the 80’s name-dropping extra verse at the end, anyway) acoustic cover of the theme from Ghostbuters. It’s pretty amazing in a bizarre kind of way.
The Bottom Line: Creighton gets a big performance from their three-headed monster in the paint, and Tulsa’s guard-oriented lineup can’t overcome it.
Jays 65, Tulsa 57