[dropcap]The[/dropcap] Bluejays play three games over the next eight days, and it might be the most important week of basketball they’ve had since the 2014 season ended. Sitting at 4-2 in the Big East and in a three-way tie for third place, the Jays play two of the teams behind them in the standings at home during this stretch — 3-3 Seton Hall and, on Saturday night, 2-4 Butler — giving them a great opportunity to create some separation between Xavier, Providence, and themselves, and in so doing, insert themselves more seriously into the NCAA Tournament discussion.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs enter Saturday night’s matchup in Omaha with a 13-5 overall record and losses in two of their last three games. They’re still ranked #18 because all five of their losses have come to teams currently ranked 16th or higher — Miami (Florida), Xavier, Villanova, and Providence (twice). The latest of those five losses came Tuesday night, when they fell 71-68 at Providence. Butler took a 66-65 lead with 3:11 to play, then made only one more basket the rest of the way and missed several attempts to tie it in the final 12 seconds. The game-winning basket wound up being a three-pointer by Kris Dunn — helluva week for that guy and game-winning shots, huh? — with just over a minute to go.
And so despite their non-conference success and Top 20 ranking, it will be a desperate Butler team the Jays see on Saturday, as a fifth league loss would give the Bulldogs very little margin for error over the final 11 games. They were a lock for the NCAA Tournament a week ago; they would no longer enjoy that status with a loss to CU.
It’s a different Butler team than we’re used to seeing, especially defensively where they’ve been unable to replace Kameron Woods and Alex Barlow’s effectiveness on the defensive end. Over the last nine seasons, they’ve ranked 66th or higher in adjusted team defense every single year, including last year when they were 7th — nearly 12 points better than the average defense per 100 possessions, which is incredible. This year, they rank 156th, the worst defensive team Butler has fielded since 2005-06 when Todd Lickliter (!) was their head coach.
The defense has improved somewhat since Big East play started; they allowed 56 second-half points to Providence on December 31, but held Villanova to just 60 for the entire game on January 10, and the Friars to 71 for the game in the rematch.
To win games, they’ve taken a page out of the Creighton playbook and paired an average defense with an elite offense. After ranking 82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency a year ago, Butler is 10th this year, chalking up nearly 14 more points per 100 possessions than the average offense. In old-fashioned terms: they’ve scored 85 or more points in nine of their 18 games, 90+ five times, and average 83.3 points per game. For comparison, the Bluejays have scored 85 or more in 12 of 19 games, 90+ eight times, and average 83.5 points per game. As you’d expect given those numbers, Butler and Creighton rank 1-2 in the Big East in points per game and are both in the Top 20 nationally.
Butler is led by Kellen Dunham, who averages 16.1 points per game. He’s led the Bulldogs in scoring in three of the team’s last four games, averaging 20.5 points per game over that stretch, including three 20+ point performances. Over his last five games, Dunham has made 19 of 34 three-point attempts for a 56-percent clip, which came on the heels of a stretch where he missed 23 consecutive long-range attempts.
He struggled in the first meeting between these schools a year ago, making 2-12 from the floor and 1-8 from three-point range for seven points in 33 minutes. In the rematch, he was 8-15 from the field and 3-4 from three-point range, logging 19 points in 39 minutes. In Butler’s four true road games so far this season, Dunham averages 20.5 points per game, and is shooting 52 percent (17-33) from three-point range.
“Guard” Roosevelt Jones is second on the team in scoring at 14.2 points a game, and leads them with 6.9 rebounds. The 6’4″, 225-pound senior is probably — well, not probably, he is — the most unique player in the country. A guard in the body of a linebacker, he has limited range as a shooter (attempting just one three-pointer in his career), yet has scored over 1,300 points in his career and is among the Top 20 scorers in school history. He doesn’t jump very high, yet he leads the team in rebounding and will finish among the Top 10 rebounders in school history. He isn’t the quickest guy, either, yet he averages almost two steals a game. As I said, he’s unique.
Jones ranks among the top 11 in the Big East in five statistical categories, and utilizes what he does have — terrific size and a stubborn orneriness to get where he wants to go on the floor at the pace he wants to get there, defense be damned — to great success. Creighton’s had a taste of that in two meetings against Jones; he averaged 18 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in those two games while shooting 16-34 from the floor. One of those made baskets was a ramshackle-runner-of-a-shot with 1.9 seconds left that beat the Jays on their home floor.
Butler’s front line is anchored by Andrew Chrabascz (11.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game) and Tyler Wideman (8.9 points, 5.7 rebounds per game). Chrabascz has scored in double figures in 13 of 18 games this year, and twice in three tries against the Jays; he had 13 on 4-14 shooting in the game in Indianapolis a year ago, but was out with an injury for the rematch. Wideman has barely played against the Jays, logging 23 total minutes in two games, but has started all 18 games for the Bulldogs this year and ranks third in the Big East in field goal percentage (65.6%) and fourth in blocked shots (1.6 per game).
EDIT: After the Primer was published Friday, it was announced that point guard Tyler Lewis did not travel to Omaha with the team after suffering a concussion in practice Thursday. The junior transfer from N.C. State had started most of the season, averaging 7.0 points and 3.7 assists a game, but came off the bench in Tuesday’s loss at Providence and played a season-low 11 minutes after inconsistent play during Big East action. Jordan Gathers, a senior graduate transfer from St. Bonaventure who averaged 4.7 points in about 15 minutes off the bench this year, got the start in Lewis’ place at Providence and it’s a good assumption he’ll do so tonight, as well. Even though Lewis had been inconsistent in conference games (leading to his move to the bench), his absence means the Bulldogs won’t have much experienced depth at the point guard spot, and that could come into play tonight.
Kelan Martin has been the Bulldogs leading scorer six times this year, has four double-doubles, and is their third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder (14.1 points, 6.2 rebounds per game), and though he’s come off the bench in all but one game this year, he plays starter minutes — his average of 23.7 minutes a game is in line with the players he primarily backs up. He was ineffective in two games vs Creighton last year, scoring seven points in 14 minutes in Indy, and just two points in nine minutes in the game in Omaha.
Creighton has had five days off to prepare for Butler, and in practice on Thursday had some interesting stand-ins for Butler players:
Coach Murphy is impersonating Butler’s Roosevelt Jones and Marcus Foster Kellen Dunham on the scout team today. pic.twitter.com/mf7LpJ66uT
— Ralph Bistline (@RalphBistline) January 21, 2016
Blues lost Marcus Foster on a baseline cut for an alley-oop slam — he’s a “bouncier” version of Kellen Dunham. — Matt DeMarinis (@mjdemarinis) January 21, 2016
It would seem on paper that this ought to be a high-scoring shootout, given the firepower both teams possess and their relative struggles defensively. Butler is the more desperate team; Creighton’s defense is a little better. Sounds like another one-possession game between these two is in the offing.
Quick Notes on the Bulldogs:
- Butler stand-out Andrew Smith passed away Tuesday, January 12 after a two-year battle with cancer. Smith was a member of Butler’s basketball teams from the 2009-10 through 2012-13 seasons, was a member of both national championship game teams (2010, 2011) and an Academic All-American. He is one of three players in program history to record both 100 wins and 1,000 career points. Butler will wear a uniform patch in tribute to Andrew for the remainder of the season.
- Six times this season, Butler has featured at least five Bulldogs scoring in double figures. Four Bulldogs average double figures on the season (Dunham, Martin, Jones, and Chrabascz). Of the 12 players who have seen action this season, eight have scored double figures in at least one contest.
- Roosevelt Jones is the only player in Butler history to rank in the Top 10 in both career rebounds and assists. Jones currently ranks sixth in career assists (393), eighth in career rebounds (720) and is tied for eighth in career steals (128). Jones is also 21st in career scoring with 1,332 career points.
Bluejay Bytes:
- Since allowing Villanova to shoot 68 percent on January 2nd, Creighton’s defense has picked up. Bluejay opponents have shot just 43.5 percent (97-223) in the past four games, which includes wins over Georgetown, Seton Hall and DePaul and a two-point loss to No. 12 Providence. In this stretch, Creighton opponents are also shooting 31.6 percent (25-79) from downtown and 63.8 percent (44-69) at the line en route to averaging 65.8 points per game. Their defense now ranks 77th nationally in “adjusted defensive efficiency” per KenPom.com.
- Kris Dunn’s game-winning shot as time expired to beat Creighton in their last home game was the first game-winning shot with no time left to ever to beat Creighton at CenturyLink Center Omaha, exceeding the previous low with 1.9 seconds left by Butler’s Roosevelt Jones last year. After allowing just two game-winning go-ahead scores in the last 10 seconds in the first 11 seasons at CenturyLink Center Omaha, Creighton has allowed that to happen four times in the past 13 months alone. They’re now 7-6 in games with a game-winning go-ahead score in the final 10 seconds in the 13-year old facility.
- Saturday marks the 100th home game on the Creighton sideline for Greg McDermott, making him just the fourth man in Creighton history to coach at least 100 home games. He’ll have more home wins in those games (either 81 or 82) than anyone else at that point. The others? Red McManus and Arthur A. Schabinger both were 78-22 after 100 home games, while Dana Altman was 75-25 after 100.
The Series:
Butler and Creighton meet for the 12th time in series history with the Bluejays owning a 6-5 advantage in a series that dates back to four early meetings in the 1932-33 and 1933-34 seasons. Butler won both match-ups last season by a combined five points.
Greg McDermott is 2-4 in his career vs. Butler, including a 2-2 mark on the Creighton sideline. He is 0-2 against Chris Holtmann.
The Last Time They Played:
Trailing by six points with under three minutes remaining, Butler closed the game on a 10-2 run to escape with a 58-56 victory last February in Omaha. It was another in a long line of losses in the final minute for Creighton; this one was a bit more maddening than the rest (if that’s possible) because they actually got a stop, but couldn’t get the rebound. Butler senior guard Alex Barlow grabbed an offensive rebound with under 30 seconds remaining to give his team the final shot with the game tied at 56, and then Roosevelt Jones drove roughshod towards the rim and banked in a game-winner with 1.9 seconds left.
The first meeting a year ago wasn’t quite that dramatic, but it was close. The Jays trailed almost the entire game before an 11-0 run gave them a 59-57 lead with just over three minutes to play. What happened over the final three minutes of the 64-61 loss was a microcosm of their season — mental mistakes, breaks on 50/50 plays going the other way, and costly turnovers at the worst times.
Gratuitous Linkage:
The Indianpolis Star’s David Woods wrote after Tuesday’s loss, “Butler had three chances to take Providence into overtime. The Bulldogs were 0-for-3. They have had four chances to beat Top 20 teams in Big East basketball. They are 0-for-4. So you can debate calling timeout and dissect Tuesday’s game any way you want. What it comes down to is this: The Bulldogs must capitalize on these chances to remain on track for a return to the NCAA tournament.”
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On January 23, 1999, Creighton defeated Illinois State 95-84 at the Civic, snapping a ten-game losing streak to the Redbirds. In scoring 90+ points for the second straight game, all five of their starters scored in double-figures, and the win pushed them into a four-way tie for first in the MVC.
The Jays fell behind early, rallied to tie the game early in the second half, and took over with an 18-6 run late. The run was capped by back-to-back threes from Ryan Sears, giving the Jays an 82-71 lead with just over five minutes to go.
Rodney Buford led Creighton with 22 points and Doug Swenson added 21, while their three starting guards — Sears, Ben Walker and Corie Brandon — combined for 41 points, 10 assists and five steals.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
Any time you can call back to old James Bond/spy movies in a music video for a catchy song, it’s going to be a favorite of mine. I can’t believe it’s taken me until late January to play this one.
The Bottom Line:
180 combined points for the two teams, but Creighton has the higher of the two numbers.
Bluejays 91, Bulldogs 89