The Flyers have won 20 straight games in UD Arena, the third longest current streak in the country. It is a ridiculously tough place to win under normal circumstances. At full strength, the Jays would find it an inhospitable venue to visit. Tomorrow’s game is not under normal circumstances, and the Jays are not at full strength. Everyone I talk to tells me they have no chance, with the Flyers winning by 15 points or more. They all qualify the statement by saying, “I hope I’m wrong, but…” And then they go on to say the Jays couldn’t rebound before, now their leading rebounder is hurt, they’re playing in one of the toughest gyms in America, against a Top 25 team picked to win their league, and they don’t see any way they come out with a competitive game, much less a win.
Well then, what the hell am I doing here previewing this game? What are you doing reading this? Clearly the guys have no chance, so why bother? Jeez.
Here’s my opinion: the Jays may or may not win tomorrow, but they’re going to be very competitive and this will be a close game.
Last season, Dayton came into Omaha and lost by 18. The Flyers were 8-1, ranked in the Top 25, and I don’t recall many folks giving Creighton a chance then either. Then Booker Woodfox went nuts, making 5-8 from downtown for 21 points, and the Jays won in a blowout.
The Jays do not have Booker anymore, obviously. But if you believe some combination of Kaleb Korver, Ethan Wragge, P’Allen Stinnett, Antoine Young, and Cavel Witter can give you five three-pointers over the course of a game, you’ve replaced Booker’s output — if not the attention defenses paid to him.
The Jays do not have Justin Carter for this game. But last year, Carter had the following line against Dayton: 0-1 from the field, 2 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and a turnover in just 12 minutes. Not overwhelming, is it? Remember, Carter in December was not the Carter that he was in January and thereafter. If you believe some combination of Darryl Ashford, Ethan Wragge, Wayne Runnels and others can give you 2 points and 5 rebounds, you’ve replaced Carter’s output.
The Jays do not have Kenton Walker anymore. But in the game last year, Walker was invisible: in just seven minutes of action, his stat sheet was empty except for one rebound and three fouls. He also turned it over three times. Those are not exactly irreplaceable numbers. Matt Dorwart, the walk-on, may well have that exact line.
Why am I bringing these things up? Because the Jays outrebounded Dayton by 11 last year, won by 18, and none of the players they’re missing this year played a role in that game that won’t be replicated by someone who IS on the team. Are you changing your mind about this game yet? Lets keep going then.
The gameplan last year was to pack a zone around the paint, deny entry passes to the post, force them into a half-court game, and let the Flyers beat themselves with outside shooting. They’re not a good jump shooting team, and they shot just 35% for the game from the floor. I promise you the gameplan will be similar tomorrow. The Jays will deny the inside players from getting touches, cut off dribble penetration, slow the game down and dare the Flyers to shoot jump shots all day. If they can succeed at that, combined with the fact that the stats they had in the game a year ago are eminently replicable, I think they have a great chance.
I’m sure Debbie Downer will appear in the comments to tell me not to expect the defense to succeed at cutting off dribble penetration or sealing off the post, that Dayton will shoot much better at home, and so on. Fair enough. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
You bet.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: The Jays 92nd season begins on the road against a ranked team, and the Jays are a putrid 2-62 all-time on the road against ranked teams. Two and sixty-two. The last win? Against Larry Legend in Terre Haute in January of ’78. Yours truly was three months away from being born. Now I’m old enough to have creaky knees. So yeah, its been a while … Mainstream Media Silly Cliche of the Game: “Dayton is rated, Creighton hasn’t beaten a rated team on the road since 1978, but they haven’t lost a season opener since 1996. Something’s gotta give.” I hate it when announcers use that phrase. HATE IT. Of course something’s gotta give. One team is going to win, one team is going to lose, one streak will continue, one won’t. Don’t assume I’m stupid. I might well be, but I don’t appreciate the assumption. K, Thanx … Dayton finished 27-8 last season, beating West Virginia in the first round of the NCAA Tournament … Wooden Award Nominee Chris Wright leads the Flyers, but had an average game in Omaha a year ago. In 33 minutes he recorded 8 points and 8 rebounds, but only took five shots … The Flyers are picked to win the A-10, and did nothing to dissuade people from that opinion in the preseason as they won two convincing games and had a whopping five players average double-figures in points.
The Last Time They Played: Creighton beat Dayton 77-59 in December of last year in Omaha, but the Flyers hold the series edge 6-4.
Gratuitous Linkage: “Steven Tyler Laid Off from Aerosmith as Band’s Jobless Rate Hits 20%.” Damn, I love The Onion.
Gratuitous Linkage #2: Making a movie based on a board game is a horrendous idea. Remember “Clue”? No you do not, because it was freaking terrible. But at least there’s plausible plot lines to draw from the game Clue. Monopoly? They’re making a movie based on Monopoly? Surely you jest! Nope, I do not jest. It’s true, and would you believe Sir Ridley Scott is directing? My skepticism dissipated after reading this article, which makes the film sound…intriguing. At the very least, it could be a massively entertaining train wreck.
Official Gametime Snack: Since tip off coincides with lunchtime, save the snacks for later and eat up some cold pizza left over from the night before. Or, you know, make a sandwich. Either way.
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ: Everything I hear about UD Arena is that its loud, intense and crazy. And of course, only one team can win. Much like Thunderdome…TWO WILL ENTER, ONE WILL LEAVE.
Yep, that just happened. Tina Turner, “We Don’t Need Another Hero.”
True story to segue you into that song: I read somewhere that Road House is the most frequently aired movie on basic cable, north of 50 times in 2008. Great “guy” flick. Why isn’t Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome on more often? I haven’t even seen the movie on the DVD shelves at your favorite big box retailer lately. I feel like I need to watch it this weekend now, and its not in my Netflix queue because I do not have Netflix. ME = FAIL.
Prediction: I believe this game will be competitive, because I believe the Jays will be able to do all (or at least, most) of the things I laid out in the intro. I also believe the homecourt advantage of UD Arena will give the Flyers a HUGE advantage, as all good college hoops arenas do. And I believe someone for the Jays will step up to hit a big shot down the stretch. I don’t know who, but someone will. Of course, I could be totally wrong on my prediction. It happens a lot to us “non-psychic” human lifeforms.
Jays 66, Flyers 65.