Before the season began, I had tonight’s game penciled in as one of the Jays’ probable losses in conference play. Illinois State was picked to finish second in the league, and teams of their caliber are tough to beat on the road, especially when you consider the fact that Illinois State has had this game circled for some time.
While Wichita State is pretty clearly the second best team in the MVC at the moment, that has more to do with the Shockers surprisingly reloading rather than rebuilding than it does with anything ISU Red has or hasn’t done. The Redbirds went 9-3 in non-conference play, with all three losses coming to solid opponents — undefeated Wyoming, at 12-0 one of the early surprises in the MWC; 9-4 Northwestern, a team with NIT aspirations; and #4 Louisville in a true road game. Inexplicably, they lost to Indiana State in the MVC opener on Saturday, but that just makes tonight’s game that much tougher for Creighton — the Redbirds will be a desperate team, trying to avoid an 0-2 hole that would for all intents and purposes bury their hopes of winning the league.
Illinois State is coached by Dan Muller, a former ISU player who was part of their last NCAA Tournament teams in the late ’90s. He cut his coaching teeth as an assistant for his former coach, Kevin Stallings, at Vanderbilt, where he spent 12 seasons on the bench and the last six as recruiting coordinator. He’s instituted a motion offense similar to the one run by the ISU teams he played on — a system which helped MVC Player of the Year Rico Hill be so successful — which has been a bit of an adjustment from the high-low, ball screen offense Tim Jankovich ran.
Of the four players in the MVC to score 30 or more points in a game this season, all four of them will play in tonight’s game — and three of them wear red. Doug McDermott, of course, has three games of 30 points or more so far this season, and Illinois State’s trio of Bryant Allen, Tyler Brown and Jackie Carmichael have all done it once each. That makes the Redbirds the nation’s only team to have three different players score 30 or more in a game this season. Needless to say, they’ve adjusted well to Muller’s offensive philosophy.
Illinois State features the highest-scoring offense in the Valley, averaging a league-best 80.5 points per game — a full point more than the Jays, who are second-best. However, Creighton’s field goal percentage is slightly higher, at 50.8%; the Redbirds connect at a 49.7% clip. The Redbirds dish out an average of 17.5 assists on 29 made baskets a game, while the Jays dish out an average of 17.4 assists on 28 made buckets per game. Much like the Jays, they not only make shots at a high rate, they often make the extra pass that leads to an open look; it’s a trait that makes them less susceptible to cold shooting nights.
All of that makes their loss to Indiana State that much more mystifying — it was an anomaly in many ways. They shot a season-low 25.7% from the field in the first half , and though they warmed up in the second half, shooting 51.9% after the break, it wasn’t quite enough as they fell to the Sycamores, 77-75. Illinois State finished the game with a season-low 37.1 shooting percentage, which was the first time ISU shot under 40 percent this season, and only the fourth time the Redbirds were held under 50 percent in 2012-13. Jackie Carmichael, their All-MVC center who averages 17.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game, got into early foul trouble and played just eight minutes in the first half — though he wound up with 13 points and 14 rebounds for the game, he was a ghastly 4-15 from the floor.
Gregory Echenique has relished the opportunity to play against Carmichael, one of the only centers in the Valley with the size and strength to match him, and has excelled — Carmichael owns 49 points and 23 total rebounds in six career games vs. Creighton, less than half his average production.
He’s not the only one who’s struggled. Tyler Brown, a dynamic guard who averages 16.8 points a game, scored a season-high 36 against Northwestern and also has games of 25 against Louisville and 22 against Wyoming. But against Creighton last year, he was 3-11 for eight points in the first meeting, 7-15 for 21 points in the 30-point loss in Omaha, and 6-18 for 16 points in the MVC Championship.
Bryant Allen, a wing player who averages nearly 10 points a game, almost single-handedly beat the Jays in the first meeting a year ago, scoring 29 points on 11-17 shooting — including 5-9 from behind the arc. He had another nice game in Omaha, scoring 17 points on 4-6 shooting (3-4 from three-point range). But in St. Louis, the Jays took him out of the game completely; he was 2-6 from the floor, and scored just five points in 31 minutes.
Freshman point guard Kaza Keane has been a capable replacement for Nic Moore, who left the program after Jankovich departed. Redbirds beat writer Jim Benson had an interesting scouting report on the freshman in our “From the Other Side” interview:
“Keane has been like a typical freshman, some good games and others not so good. Moore was the same way last season, but everyone just remembers the end of the season where he really took off. Keane is more of a pass-first point guard instead of looking to score like Moore. Keane is a much better defender than Moore was at any point last season. It’s difficult to say if ISU would have a better record if Moore returned under Muller. He would have had to commit more on defense than he did last season.”
Clearly, both teams are capable of scoring in bunches, setting up what should be one of the highest-octane games of the conference schedule. But in a shootout, I normally like the Jays chances — that’s not what worries me about the Redbirds. They’re a team with veteran players who are hungry for what Creighton achieved a year, and who remember the sting of losing in OT to the Jays in the MVC Championship a year ago. And they’re desperate not to drop to 0-2 in the league, putting them in a hole they might not be able to dig out of. If this game concerned me before, it’s downright frightening now.
About the Redbirds: One of the all-time Bluejay nemesis’ will be in the house, as Osiris Eldridge will be the Redbird Ambassador for the game — a promotion where Redbird greats return to Normal for big games to sign autographs and pose for photos with fans … Illinois State’s last victory over a ranked foe in Normal, Ill., was a 91-81 win over No. 9 Tulsa on March 3, 1984 … ISU is 0-7 against ranked teams all-time in Redbird Arena … The Redbirds have led at halftime in 11 out of 13 games this season … With 13 points and a season-high 14 rebounds in Illinois State’s loss at Indiana State on Dec. 30, Jackie Carmichael earned his third-consecutive double-double and fourth of the season … With one block against No. 16 Creighton, Jackie Carmichael will set Illinois State’s career-blocked shots record, breaking the mark currently held by Greg Dilligard with 160 blocks.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Last year marked the first time Creighton played a season without a loss to a team from Illinois since 1973-74, when the Jays went 9-0 against teams from the state of Illinois … Since 2000-01, Creighton is the only MVC team with a winning road record in the conference, going 59-49 (.546 winning percentage) … Creighton is 12-3 in true road games over the past two seasons, one of the nation’s best such marks. Only five teams have fewer true road losses in that span, a group consisting of Murray State, Syracuse, Wichita State, Kansas and Duke.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott has scored 21 or more points in 10 of the season’s 13 games, moving up to seventh on Creighton’s all-time scoring list with 1,688 career points. With 29 points last Saturday vs. Evansville, McDermott moved past Paul Silas on Creighton’s all-time scoring list and past Wes Unseld on the MVC’s all-time scoring list.
Next up in front of him on CU’s all-time scoring list is Nate Funk, who scored 1,754 points.
The Last Time They Played: The team’s three meetings a year ago were all high-scoring affairs; all three games were won by the Jays, by scores of 87-78, 102-74 and 83-79.
The last matchup, in the 2012 MVC Tournament title game, was a hard-fought game where Creighton defeated Illinois State 83-79 in overtime. In that contest, Doug McDermott had 33 points, tying for the most in a final during the 22-year history since the event moved to St. Louis. Grant Gibbs added a career-high 20 points in the win.
The Series: Illinois State leads the all-time series with Creighton by a 40-29 margin but the Bluejays have won 21 of the last 31 meetings. In Normal, the Redbirds own a 24-8 lead, with six of the Bluejays eight all-time wins coming in the last 11 years.
Greg McDermott has won 10 straight meetings to improve to 12-4 all-time against Illinois State (5-0 since coming to Creighton).
Gratuitous Linkage: Lots of point guards are billed as pass-first, but Redbird freshman Kaza Keane really is, as the Pantagraph’s Randy Kindred writes in this excellent feature story.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On January 2, 1999, Creighton beat Indiana State 65-62 in Terre Haute. Doug Swenson’s rebound and basket off a missed free throw gave the Bluejays a 61-57 lead with 17 seconds left, and then Ryan Sears and Matt West each made a pair of free throws to clinch the victory. The Jays shot 52% from the field, out-rebounded the Sycamores by 13, but barely won thanks to an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: Redbirds, Red Rocker. One of his cheesiest, and therefore awesomest, videos — Sammy Hagar as secret agent Double-0-Rock!
The Bottom Line: I had this one down as a loss before the season. I’ll predict a one-point win for now, but won’t be shocked if the Jays come home 1-1 in the league.
Jays 80, Illinois State 79