If you follow the Valley, you’re familiar with what Indiana State did a year ago. They climbed out of a decade-long abyss to post a 20-14 record, going 12-6 in the league, which was good for third place, and then they earned an NCAA Tournament berth by upsetting the MVC’s top two teams in St. Louis on consecutive days.
Even people who follow the Valley are having a hard time figuring out how they fell back into Thursday Play-In territory so quickly, however. Picked for third place, with some prognosticators believing they posed a real threat to Creighton and Wichita State, the Sycamores instead have gone 2-6 in the league, including losing five of their last six games to bury themselves in ninth place.
Part of the reason for their confusion over what’s going on in Terre Haute is because, statistically, the team is performing nearly identically to a year ago — in many cases, spookily so.
Field Goals
2010-11: 22-52 (42.3%)
2011-12: 21-52 (40.3%)
Free Throws
2010-11: 14-19 (73.6%)
2011-12: 14-20 (70%)
Three-Pointers
2010-11: 6-19 (31.6%)
2011-12: 6-18 (33.3%)
Rebounds (O/D/T)
2010-11: 10/24/34
2011-12: 9/22/31
Opponent Rebounds (O/D/T)
2010-11: 10/23/33
2011-12: 8/23/31
Total Points
2010-11: Scored 66 a game/average, Allowed 64 a game/average
2011-12: Scored 64 a game/average, Allowed 64 a game/average
Have they just not gotten the breaks they did a year ago, when they played a whopping 13 games decided by six points or fewer, and won 9 of them? Possibly. Was last year’s 20-14 record the product of a team that overachieved, and this year’s 11-8 (2-6) record indicative of a team that is underachieving, making this essentially a .500 ballclub? It’s too early to tell. But it’s spooky how close this year’s team is to last year’s team, based purely on numbers. Those don’t tell the whole story, though, obviously, so let’s dig a little deeper.
When you ask people around the league why ISU Blue is struggling, the reason they give is nearly universal: Jake Odum, their sensational point guard, has been playing with plantar fasciitis all year. The reason makes sense, given how terrific of a player he is, but he’s posted numbers that, almost across the board, are better than a year ago. He’s playing more minutes (31.9 to 29.8), his scoring is up (10.3 to 9.2), his assists are up (5.6 to 4.0), and his rebounds are up (5.4 to 3.9). Looking at that, you’re left wondering how good he’d be if he wasn’t playing at 75%! Holy cow.
There are two areas where his foot injury shows up, though, and both get us closer to discovering the reason for ISU’s struggles. Odum had 75 turnovers all of last year (2.2/game), but he has 65 already this year (3.4/game). That’s a huge jump, obviously. And in analyzing their games on film, it becomes quickly apparent that his defense — particularly on the perimeter — is a step or two slower than it was a year ago because of the foot issues. Players beat him off the dribble on a consistent basis, something that really wasn’t the case a year ago, or at least, not to the extent that it happens this year.
Compounding that is the departure of their two best perimeter defenders from a year ago, Jake Kelly and Aaron Carter, both of whom graduated and were much more important to the team than many people realized. The Sycamores were the league’s best defensive team a year ago, allowing opponents to shoot just 40.4% from the field. This year, they’re sixth, at over 45%, and they’re dead last in three-point percentage, allowing opponents to make 47% of their shots from behind the arc. Opponents have gameplanned to spread the Sycamores out, to attack and dish it out to open shooters, exploiting their biggest weakness — which is also part of the reason they’ve been on the wrong end of several blowouts against teams with athletic guards that can exploit their defense.
Saturday is the halfway point in the season, and if the Sycamores lose, they’ll be 2-7 in the league and have a tough road just to escape the purgatory of the Thursday play-in round — especially since they have yet to play on the road at either Wichita State or Missouri State, and have a home game with Creighton remaining. Ouch.
Catching Up with the Sycamores: Dwayne Lathan leads the team with 11.8 points per game and is second on the squad with 5.1 rebounds per contest … Carl Richard, who had a buzzer-beating tip-in to beat the Jays last season, averages 9.9 points and 5.0 rebounds per game to rank third on ISU Blue in both categories … Senior Jordan Printy has 191 career 3-pointers, which is second most all-time in the history of the program … ISU is 7-1 this season when holding an opponent under 42.1 percent field goal shooting percentage and are 6-0 when holding an opponent to 30 rebounds or less … Despite losing 75-65 last week, the Sycamores outrebounded Wichita State by a 42-36 margin, which marked the first time this season that the Shockers were out rebounded in a game … Jake Odum led the team with 15 points and a career-high 12 rebounds in their 73-67 loss to SIU last week.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Greg McDermott won his 40th game as Creighton head coach on Wednesday at Missouri State, in his 58th game at Creighton. He’s the first coach to reach 40 wins with a record of .500 or better since Tom Apke was 40-14 when he reached the mark in 1976 … Though he didn’t have near the rebuilding job of these other coaches, it’s still fun to note McDermott reached the milestone much quicker than Dana Altman (91 games), Tony Barone (95), Willis Reed (95), Eddie Sutton (68) and Red McManus (72) … With a win vs. Indiana State, Creighton will notch its 10th home win of the season for the 16th straight year … Creighton is 33-16 in its last 49 games on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU or ESPN3, going 31-8 when scoring 62 points or more, but just 2-8 when scoring 61 points or less … Creighton has been .500 or better after 20 games in each of the last 17 seasons, including this season. Even more impressive, Creighton has won 13 of its first 20 games in 14 of the last 15 seasons … Gregory Echenique began the season 7-of-25 at the free-throw line (36%), but since then, he’s 34-for-45 from the line (75.6%) and is 16-17 from the line in road games since December 1.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott leads the MVC in scoring (23.8 ppg.), rebounding (8.4 rpg.) three-point percentage and field goal percentage. The last player to lead the MVC in scoring and rebounding in the same season was Southern Illinois legend Ashraf Amaya in 1991-92. No player has ever led the MVC in field goal percentage and three-point percentage in the same season.
The Last Time They Played: In the inaugural Pink Out for Cancer Awareness, the Jays jumped out to a 23-8 lead just eight minutes into the game and rolled to a 83-69 win on January 29 of last year. Doug McDermott led Creighton with 25 points and seven rebounds while registering a then-career-high with four assists. Antoine Young added 19 points while Josh Jones had 11 points off the bench.
The Series: Creighton owns a 50-24 record all-time against Indiana State and has won 21 of the last 27 games in the series. The Jays lead the series 29-7 in 36 previous Omaha meetings, including 12 straight victories. ISU’s last win at Creighton was Jan. 17, 1999 (70-69), and they’ve never won at the Qwest Center/CenturyLink. Eight of the last 10 Omaha meetings have been double-digit Bluejay victories, including the past five.
Greg McDermott is 9-4 in his career against Indiana State, including a 5-1 mark in home games. McDermott is 1-1 against Greg Lansing.
Gratuitous Linkage: In Todd Golden’s excellent as usual postgame writeup in the Terre Haute Tribune-Star yesterday, Jake Odum had an interesting quote on the team’s struggles to win games. “We’re executing for about 25 to 30 minutes a game. In the other 10 minutes, we’re just blowing it. Last year, we found ways to win, this year, we’re finding ways to lose.”
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On January 21, 1989, Creighton defeated Bradley 94-68 in front of 8,087 fans at the Civic Auditorium, their largest home crowd in over two years. In picking up their first win over Bradley in four years, the Jays shot 75% from the field (21-28) in the first half, including 8-9 from behind the arc, and built a 58 – 27 halftime advantage. For the game, Porter Moser was 6-6 from the field, and 5-5 from three-point range, for a career-high 17 points, and had 10 assists for his only career double-double.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: Holy crap, what a creepy thumbnail image YouTube provides for this video. Yeeeeeesh. That will give my nightmares their own nightmares! Good song though.
The Bottom Line: Creighton takes care of business in front of a national TV audience on ESPN2, and Dougie Fresh has a huge day on the big stage.
Creighton 82, Indiana State 68