The Devaney Center has been a house of horrors for Creighton, as the Jays have won in the building just three times in 18 tries. Even when they’ve emerged victorious, it’s usually been ugly, as their 62-51 win in 2001 and 50-48 win in 2004 attest. Since the series resumed in 1977, they’ve scored an average of 60.2 points per game in Lincoln, finding the rims unfriendly and buckets hard to come by.
Add to that the fact that Creighton is 6-5 in its true road opener the previous 11 seasons, plus that Tim Miles has the Huskers playing with confidence, and this is a game that cost me sleep last night. On paper, it’s one of the bigger mismatches in the recent history of the series — maybe the biggest since it was a mismatch on the other side, when Danny Nee’s program was rolling along and Rick Johnson’s Creighton program was drifting into the abyss. Nebraska has just seven scholarship players, and all but six points the entire season have been scored by their top six players. Out of necessity, they ride their starting five a ton of minutes, which could make them susceptible to either a fast-paced game or to foul trouble.
But on the court, things look very different. They’re coming off back-to-back games where they won by double-digits, including a road win at Wake Forest (granted, the Demon Deacons are a bottom-feeder in the ACC, but a road win is a road win). They’ve stayed out of foul trouble and been able to keep the pace manageable. They’re playing much better than anyone anticipated, with no fear and a looseness that mirrors their coach. And as a decided underdog — Vegas had them as 7 point dogs at home as of this morning — they have absolutely nothing to lose. Those things all point to this being a much closer game than any Jays fans are comfortable with.
What I keep reminding myself of, however, is the myriad of ways that this is a horrible matchup for Nebraska. Andre Almeida has turned in really nice offensive performances the last two weeks, making a ridiculous 24-28 shots from the floor while averaging 12 points and 5 boards, but he’s still a defensive liability particularly against a quicker post player.
Throughout his career, Almeida has struggled to defend both the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop — two things Creighton runs all day. As Nick Bahe told us in this week’s podcast, he thinks the game plan will be when Echenique is on the floor, he’ll leave the paint to set a ball screen on almost every possession, thus forcing Almeida to come out, guard the perimeter and run around — which will hopefully wear him out by the second half. And when Creighton has their smaller lineup on the floor with Ethan Wragge playing the “5”, whoever Almeida is guarding will come out and relentlessly run pick-and-pop moves. Are the Huskers comfortable with Almeida guarding 15 feet from the basket? If they switch and try to put Brandon Ubel, a player with better defensive footwork and a quicker first step, on Wragge then who defends Doug McDermott?
If Nebraska plays them straight up man-to-man, especially when Creighton has their smaller lineup on the floor, it’s a recipe for foul trouble as Almeida chases around quicker players. And if Almeida and/or Ubel get into foul trouble, there’s no two ways about it — it would take a historic shooting night for Nebraska to win. Their post backups are a pair of inexperienced, undersized forwards in David Rivers and Shavon Shields, neither of which is likely to succeed for any length of time defensively against Creighton’s front line, and neither of which has the offensive ability of Almeida or Ubel. For that reason, you’re likely to see some combination of zone or double-teams on Echenique and McDermott to try and offset their lack of depth on the interior, and keep the starters on the floor as much as possible.
Because of that lack of depth — and the fact that both teams are talented scoring in the paint — it’s tempting to say the front court play will be the key to the game. But there’s something else that concerns me.
I’m fairly confident that at worst, the matchup inside will be a wash. Almeida is a talented offensive player, and could offset what he gives up on pick-and-pops with baskets of his own. Ubel played fairly solid defense on Doug McDermott a year ago, and can score a bit himself. No, it’s the perimeter shooting that worries me. Creighton has rarely shot well at the Devaney Center, and the current team has an uncanny knack for allowing opposing shooters to have career nights. Austin Chatman, Josh Jones and Jahenns Manigat need to play lock-down defense tonight — it’s imperative that Creighton does not allow Ray Gallegos to get hot.
The Huskers’ junior guard is streaky, but he’s capable of scorching the nets from three-point range — he has two straight games with 20+ points, and made 6-10 from behind the arc Monday night. If Nebraska wins it will likely be not because Almeida or Ubel prevents Echenique and McDermott from scoring, but because Gallegos got hot from outside. Creighton has a maddening knack for allowing opposing guards to have career nights, and if Gallegos gets on a roll like he did Monday against USC, the crowd will get going, the Huskers confidence in pulling an upset will increase, and all bets are off.
With that said, there’s a lot more scenarios where Creighton can succeed than vice-versa. As long as Gallegos doesn’t get hot from outside, I’m confident predicting the Jays will win by 10. If he starts hitting open shots early, it’s likely Jays fans won’t like the result. Now, take a deep breath, exhale, and repeat the mantra: LET’S GO JAYS.
About the Huskers: Nebraska’s 6-1 mark matches the program’s best start in 20 years, and the Huskers are coming off consecutive double-figure wins over Wake Forest and USC since falling to Kent State … The Huskers are holding opponents to 58.6 ppg, while only one opponent has topped 70 points this season … Andre Almeida is shooting 85.7% over the Huskers last five games (24-of-28), a stretch where he is averaging 12.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.0 blocked shots per game … When Andre Almeida and Ray Gallegos enjoyed 20-point efforts against Wake Forest, it marked the first time since March 5, 2007, that the Huskers had multiple players with 20-point nights … Dylan Talley and Ray Gallegos rank first and second, respectively, in the Big Ten in minutes per game whle NU has three players averaging over 30 minutes per night. Over the last 14 years, only one player – Charles Richardson Jr. in 2006-07 – has averaged more minutes than 32.5 minutes per game, while NU has two players on track this season to eclipse that mark.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: The team to lead at halftime has lost each of the last four meetings between Creighton and Nebraska in Lincoln. Creighton has wasted leads of 29-21 (2010), 31-18 (2008) and 31-28 (2006), while the Huskers couldn’t hold a 22-18 edge in 2004 … Creighton has struggled to score at Bob Devaney Sports Center in its recent trips to Lincoln, failing to crack 62 points or more in each of its past four trips to town. In those four games, during which Creighton is 1-3, the Jays have averaged a paltry 54.3 points per game … Creighton is 129-of-164 at the line compared to 80-of-118 shooting from its foes, and their 78.7 percent marksmanship from the line ranks sixth nationally … Creighton has scored 70 points or more in each of its first eight games for the second straight season. Last year’s team did it in 11 straight to start the year.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott has scored 21 or more points in each of the last four games, moving up to 11th on Creighton’s all-time scoring list with 1,552 career points. The junior is just 23 points shy of Benoit Benjamin’s 1,575 points that rank 10th in school history. At McDermott’s current scoring average of 21.3 points per game this year he’ll become Creighton’s all-time leading scorer in 27 more games. Creighton has a minimum of 24 games remaining this season.
The Last Time They Played: No. 22 Creighton beat Nebraska last December, 76-66, in Omaha. Nebraska, which trailed by as many as nine points in the first half, had cut the lead 46-45 with 9:15 remaining in the game before Creighton took advantage of a controversial technical foul on Toney McCray — which was immediately followed by Nebraska Coach Doc Sadler getting whistled for a technical foul. Doug McDermott hit three foul shots for CU before Grant Gibbs, who was fouled on the original play, added two more to take the Bluejays to a 51-45 lead. On Creighton’s next possession, McDermott’s three-point play put the Bluejays up 54-45 capping an 11-0 spurt that turned the tide of a tight game through the first 30 minutes. McDermott led three Bluejays in double figures with 24 points and 12 rebounds, hitting 9-of-15 shots from the floor.
The Series: Nebraska owns a 25-20 all-time lead in the series vs. Creighton, but the Jays have won 10 of the last 13 regular-season games. The teams have alternated wins and losses in the last seven meetings, with the home squad winning each time. Creighton’s last win in Lincoln came on Dec. 11, 2004, when Kellen Miliner’s shot with 0.7 seconds left helped the Jays to a 50-48 win.
Greg McDermott and Tim Miles have played nine times previously, with McDermott’s team winning all nine times. Thursday’s meeting will be the third different school for both in a head-to-head match-up, as they squared off in match-ups between Wayne State and SW Minnesota State (seven times) and Iowa State and North Dakota State (twice).
Gratuitous Linkage: For as long as I’ve been a Jays fan, Nebraska basketball coaches have lobbed jabs at the Hilltop. Danny Nee and Barry Collier had their share of comments that caused consternation and overreaction, but it was Doc Sadler who crystallized their myriad remarks into one succinct thesis statement on the series in a 2009 interview with the Omaha World-Herald.
“A loss to Creighton hurts us. A win over Creighton, the only thing it does is make our fans happy. It doesn’t help you come Selection Sunday. That’s just the way it is.”
And so it was that Tim Miles, the latest coach to take on the unenviable job of getting a football school to pay attention to hoops, stumbled his way through an interview on the sideline of a Husker football game in September, uttering the now-infamous comment that UNL was “the only show in the state.” It’s been the sign-off audio and go-to comic relief soundbite for Bluejay Banter ever since, and has served as a rallying cry for Jays fans. Before the Jays ever play a game against Miles and his program and accumulate reasons to dislike them on the court, they have a reason to dislike him off of it.
Which brings me to the gratuitous link: Miles’ statement has been immortalized on a hilarious t-shirt sold by a local retailer. Here’s hoping lots of Jays fans are wearing it tonight in the arena.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 6, 1986, Creighton ended a six-game losing streak to Nebraska with a 78-66 victory in front of a sell-out crowd of 9,618 at the Civic Auditorium. They were helped in large part by a new weapon — the three-point shot. Creighton made 12-26 threes in the game, including seven straight mid-way through the second half. After Nebraska pulled within 40-35, Rod Mason hit two in a row to make it 46-37 and Gary Swain added another as they ran the lead out to 49-37. Then Matt Roggenburk hit three in a row for leads of 52-43, 55-47 and 58-49, and Kenny Evans put a capstone on the ambush with one more to make it 61-51.
As the final horn sounded, the Creighton student section rushed the floor and ultimately carried head coach Tony Barone off the court on their shoulders to the roars of the home crowd.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: LEGGO.
The Bottom Line: Creighton shows up with more “St. Joseph’s Defense” than “Boise State Defense”, and though the game is close throughout, they pull away late.
Jays 72, Nebraska 63