After starting 0-2 in the league, Northern Iowa has won two in a row to climb out of a self-imposed hole. Despite that slow start, they remain the highest rated team in terms of RPI in the Missouri Valley, ranked 23rd by that metric, which might surprise some folks who assume Creighton — ranked in the Coaches Poll for nearly two months — has the highest RPI in the league. It’s hard to figure UNI having an RPI that high, given that they haven’t beaten any big “marquee” teams.
The 12-4 Panthers best two wins are over Iowa State (45 RPI, 12-3 record), and Colorado State (28 RPI, 10-4 record). But they’ve played just one game against a team with a plus-200 RPI, and one of their losses came on the road to Saint Mary’s (30 RPI, 15-2 record). That’s how you get an RPI in the high-20s despite four losses — beat a couple of teams early that are in the Top 50, don’t play anyone ranked lower than 200 to keep your SOS high, and don’t lose to anyone at home. That last point was highlighted when they lost to Evansville at home last week, as it dropped them from the high teens down to their current position.
Part of the reason people are so surprised by Northern Iowa is that in TV games, which for the vast majority of Jays fans is the only place they’ve seen them play, UNI has looked pretty mediocre. Their 57-41 loss at Saint Mary’s as part of the ESPN 24-Hour Tipoff Marathon is the picture a lot of people have stuck in their mind of UNI — a team that struggled to make baskets, played at a slow pace, and generally looked overwhelmed. First impressions are tough to overcome, especially when they’re bad, and scoring 41 points in a game is BAD. That game was hard to watch. It literally put me to sleep, though that might have had more to do with the 1AM tip time than their play…
A double-digit home loss on New Years Day to Evansville, seen by many on ESPNU, reinforced those impressions. I think that’s why so many pundits are hesitant to put UNI on the same tier with Wichita State and Creighton — and why, despite an RPI of 23, they’re on the outside looking in of many NCAA Tournament projections. Yes, it’s the ol’ Jay Bilas Eye Test, alive and well, this time preached by many of the same people who have a cow when the Eye Test is applied negatively to the Jays. Kind of ironic.
Digging into their numbers, the common denominator for Northern Iowa seems to be three-point shooting. In those two ugly losses, they were a combined 14-43 from behind the arc (32%), while for the season they’re shooting 40%. It isn’t just the percentage, though, its the volume. In their first two MVC games, they were 9-28 and 8-27, respectively, and both games ended in a loss. In their last two MVC games, they were 7-15 and 4-8, and both games were wins. That’s a trend that has played itself out all season. When they win, they shoot fewer threes and make a higher percentage of them; when they lose, they shoot more of them, and make fewer.
That’s potentially significant against Creighton, because the Panthers don’t appear to be much of a match in the paint for the Jays, either on offense or on defense. Seth Tuttle, a 6’8″, 210 pound freshman, has started all 16 games in the middle for UNI. In addition to being young, he’s skinny, and he’ll be matched up against Gregory Echenique most of tonight’s game. When he’s not on the floor, 6’10” Austin Pehl will be out there, and while bigger, he’s also slower. Echenique has become an absolute bully on defense, holding opposing big men far below their averages in points and rebounds three consecutive games, culminating in a dominating performance Saturday where Bradley literally gave up trying to play in the post, taking Jordan Prosser out of the game and playing a small lineup of shooters.
Bradley had great success running that small lineup, as Coach Greg McDermott explained on the AM590 postgame show. “That lineup gave us an advantage on one end, but it put us in a tough spot on the other end defensively because who’s Gregory gonna guard?” UNI coach Ben Jacobson, watching the film of that game, no doubt noticed this. Will UNI surrender the paint to Echenique and go with a smaller, quicker lineup, using forward Jake Koch and maybe Chip Rank as their “big” men? That would create nightmare defensive matchups for the Jays on defense — as McDermott said Saturday, who’s Gregory gonna guard? — but it gives the Jays a big advantage on offense. Doug McDermott’s offensive explosion (31 second-half points) came in large part against that lineup.
If UNI opts to play more conventionally, they will probably try to keep the game in the low-to-mid 60s by slowing the tempo, milking the shot clock, and playing solid pressure defense. They’ve been somewhat successful doing that this year, though not as much so as in years past. One thing’s for sure, if Creighton is able to play this game at their preferred tempo — scoring in the high-80s to low-90s — UNI will most likely not be able to keep up.
It should be a fun, raucous atmosphere either way. It’s $1 Beer Night at the CenturyLink, which means…well, I think you know what it means.
Catching Up with the Panthers: UNI has scored 80 or more points in four of 16 games this season, compared with Creighton, who has scored 80+ in nine of 15 … Senior guard Johnny Moran made a pair of 3-pointers in Saturday’s win at Drake to move his career total to 168 made 3s, passing Darian DeVries (166 3s from 1995-98) and moving into third place on the Panthers’ all-time 3-pointers made list … Junior guard Marc Sonnen has scored in double figures on nine occasions this season, including a streak of three straight double-figure scoring games. Sonnen is averaging 9.3 points per game this year, but in four MVC games Sonnen has upped his scoring to 12.0 points per game … Tonight’s game features seven of the last 10 champions of the MVC Tournament, and nine of the last 13 winners. Creighton won crowns in 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2007, while UNI won tournament titles in 2004, 2009 and 2010 … Junior forward Jake Koch buried 13-of-14 free throws and scored 18 points in UNI’s 83-68 win at Drake.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Tuesday’s game features Creighton head coach Greg McDermott facing his alma mater, Northern Iowa. McDermott played at UNI from 1984-88, where he scored 1,033 career points to rank 29th in UNI history, and he later reached three NCAA Tournaments as head coach of the program from 2001-06 … Gregory Echenique recorded a double-double of 12 points and 12 rebounds Saturday at Bradley, his second double-double of the season, and 10th of his collegiate career. Echenique also added two blocks, tying him with Adam Reid for eighth in CU history with 79 career rejections … Creighton’s 92 points on Saturday were its most in a true road game since a 95-91 overtime win at Drake on Feb. 13, 2002, and its most in a regulation contest on the road since a 95-81 win at Northern Iowa on Jan. 30, 1999 … Creighton has made at least 60 percent of its shots from the field in each of the last two games. The last time they did that? December of 1984, when they did it against Briar Cliff (64.6) and Nebraska (60 percent).
The RUN-DMD Show: If Doug McDermott scores 30 points or more tonight, he’ll become the first CU player with back-to-back 30-point contests since Bob Harstad had 35 at Southern Illinois on Feb. 10, 1990, then scored 31 vs. Bradley two days later. The only player to ever score 40 in back-to-back games was Benoit Benjamin in 1985 … Doug’s 44 points on Saturday set a new record for points scored by an opponent at the 30-year old Carver Arena in Peoria. It’s the second arena scoring record he’s set this season, previously tying the all-time mark at Tulsa’s Reynolds Center with his 35-point night … Despite his 44-point night, Doug still ranks second on the national scoring chart at 25.2 points per game. That’s because the player he’s chasing, Weber State’s Damian Lillard, drained eight three-pointers and scored 38 points last Saturday to move up to 26.3 points per game.
The Last Time They Played: Last March 4, Creighton defeated Northern Iowa in the quarterfinals of Arch Madness 60-57. Senior Kenny Lawson scored 18 points on 4-4 three-point shooting, both personal highs against MVC competition for the year, as Creighton scored the first eight points and never trailed.
The Series: Creighton leads the all-time series with Northern Iowa by a 28-15 count, including a 17-4 mark in Omaha. The Jays won two of the three meetings last season, including the aforementioned 60-57 win in the MVC Tournament that ended UNI’s dream of a third straight Arch Madness title.
Creighton has won 12 of the last 16 and 23 of the last 30 meetings. Eleven of the last 15 contests have been decided by nine points or less.
Head coach Greg McDermott is 3-4 against UNI, and 3-4 against Ben Jacobson.
Gratuitous Linkage: Occasionally I bid on them, rarely I win them, but I always look. I have an automated script set up on eBay to send me emails when Creighton items come up for bid, and some of the antiquities that people post are really amazing. One of the items that popped up today is a real doozy: a signed 1977-78 game program by the entire team, a program from the annual athletic banquet, and a Creighton Bluejays ashtray. It’s the last item that cracks me up. Who wants to put out their ashes on photos of their favorite Bluejay stars? Bizarre. I don’t even smoke, and yet, I kind of want it.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On January 10, 1999, Rodney Buford had one of the real statistical outliers of his career, grabbing more rebounds than points scored. He had 10 boards and just nine points in a 72-70 win over Southwest Missouri State, as Nerijus Karlikanovas shouldered the scoring load with 20 points (7-9 from the floor, 4-5 from three) in his first-ever start.
Nerijus would miss the next two games while the NCAA investigated information regarding possible club team participation by Karlikanovas while in high school. Answering questions about the inquiry, Creighton Athletic Director Bruce Rasmussen told the World-Herald that someone made a phone call to the NCAA the day after the 72-70 upset win over SMS. Altman was coy when asked about the situation, saying, “It was something that was brought to our attention yesterday – I’m not sure how it originated – and we’ve got to get some information from over there. He must have played too well Sunday.” When asked if that meant the question was brought up by SMS and/or Steve Alford, Altman wouldn’t say either way…
Nerijus was cleared after two games and came back to play a big role in the Jays’ NCAA Tournament run that spring.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: I listened to the new Van Halen single, “Tattoo”, three times on the way into work this morning, each time the song growing on me a little more. It’s the first single with David Lee Roth since the mid-nineties, and the first non-Greatest Hits single with him since 1984. That’s an impossibly high bar to meet, so like I said, the new single will have to grow on me.
The Bottom Line: Creighton is able to control the tempo and play in transition, spelling trouble for a UNI team that wants to slow things down.
Creighton 83, UNI 74