In October, most Creighton fans I talked to figured they knew three things about this team. One, that they’d have trouble rebounding. Two, that their defense might struggle at times. And Three, that they would be a high-scoring team that could overcome their deficiencies by outscoring people.
I know, you laugh now, but in October and even into November, popular opinion was that this team could score in bunches. That was a big reason why the media picked them to finish second the MVC. Heck, I picked them to go 22-8 and 13-5 in the conference, a ridiculous prognosis now after we’ve watched the team struggle.
The amazing thing to me, though, is that this team has not only managed to struggle, they’ve done it by being something other than what we thought they’d be. The Jays have fought and clawed to essentially be even on the boards for the season, which is both surprising and remarkable. But they’ve also shot horribly. Actually, horribly is not a strong enough word for how bad their shooting has been. What’s stronger than “horribly”? A word I won’t publish on White & Blue Review, that’s what.
Statistically, they are the worst-shooting group of the Dana Altman era from behind the arc, making just 32% of their baskets. In MVC play, they’re even worse, making just 27%, good for last place in the league. Considering how important making three-pointers is to their offense, that’s one reason they’re not winning games. They’re also making just 40% of their shots overall through five MVC games, which if it holds, would be the lowest of the Altman era.
I know that there’s a lot more to winning games than scoring, and that its dangerous to base opinions on players based solely on how they shoot, but because this team is struggling SO MUCH to score, it might be instructive to look at the returning players and how they’re shooting compared to previous seasons.
P’Allen Stinnett is making the same percentage of threes he did a year ago, 31%, but his overall field-goal percentage has dropped from 44% to 40%. This is third consecutive season his field goal percentage has gone down; he shot 45% (145-320) his freshman year, 44% (139-313) his sophomore season, and 40% (52-127) so far this year. At the line, Stinnett is hitting 70% of his free throws, down from 74% as a sophomore and 79% as a freshman.
Justin Carter, on the other hand, is actually shooting better than he did last year. This probably surprises folks who think he’s been scuffling since the knee injury; it surprised me. He’s shooting 47% from the floor after making 45% of his shots a year ago. Most surprising, though, is his three-point percentage. After making 27% (14-52) of his threes last year, he’s shooting at a 41% clip (9-22) this season. Carter has struggled mightily at the line, however, hitting just 51% of his free throws after making 66% last year.
Cavel Witter is another player who’s shooting better than last year. Witter has connected on 43% of his shots (36-84), compared to 33% last year (74-220). Incidentally, his first year he made 45% of his buckets (95-209). So he’s bounced back to his form of two years ago, which is great to see. From deep, he’s almost identical to last year, making 31% both years. His 36% from two years ago happened when the three-point line was closer, and you’ll recall almost all of his shots came from right at the line — I wonder if the longer distance has contributed to his drop in makes. From the line, Witter is still outstanding, though not as good as he was previously, hitting 78% of his throws. Witter made 85% last year, and 80% two years ago.
Kaleb Korver has really been in a slump. His 31% field goal percentage (15-48) this season comes after hitting 43% (41-96) his sophomore year and 47% (17-36) his freshman year. Continuing a trend from his entire career, almost all of his shot attempts come from behind the arc, as he’s just 3-10 from inside the arc this season. Not coincidentally, Korver has attempted just four free throws. He’s made one.
Casey Harriman is another player whose shooting has been off this year, hitting just 33% of his shots (9-27) this season. He made 39% (39-99) of his shots last year, and 44% (36-81) his freshman year. From three-point range, he’s connecting on 23% of his attempts (5-21). This from a guy who hit 40% last year (29-72) and 43% two years ago (24-56). His health has probably played a factor in his struggles, but his numbers are definitely down. From the stripe, Harriman is making 75% of his throws, a marked improvement over his first two seasons (65% and 68%, respectively).
Antoine Young is shooting worse, too, though his 37% shooting is not markedly different from his 38% last year. He is hitting threes at a much lower percentage, however, connecting on just 21% after making 28% last season. And he’s been a disaster at the line, making a Shaq-tastic 48% of his free throws (20-41). That’s a shock, because he was 49-70 last year, a respectable 70% rate.
Finally, we have Kenny Lawson, who based on where he shoots from, you would figure to be both consistent and proficient. And he is, hitting 54% (83-152) as a freshman, 52% (124-235) as a sophomore, and back to 54% (75-137) this season. He has never attempted a three-pointer in his career. Lawson from the line has been outstanding, knocking down 79% of his throws (49-62). He made just 58% of his free throws as a freshman, and improved that to 76% last year.
These are surprising numbers, but based on what I thought at the beginning of the season — that the Jays would need to outscore teams to win — its not surprising that they’ve struggled to win games.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Southern Illinois enters Wednesday’s game on a three-game losing streak, falling to 9-5 on the season, and is 2-3 in the MVC. Perusing their message boards, it looks like their fans are more concerned about Chris Lowery leaving for DePaul than tonight’s game. Is that a sign that this once-great rivalry is no more, or that the Salukis season is going so poorly that they’re already looking ahead to next year? … Point guard Kevin Dillard leads the team, scoring 15 points a night and dishing out a league-leading 78 assists. He’s followed by Iowa transfer Tony Freeman, who’s averaging 13 points a night and has 41 three-pointers, hitting them at a 45% clip … The Salukis have gotten somewhat away from their Floorburn U style, allowing 67 points a game. They also are scoring at a higher rate, however, with 72 a game … Tonight’s game will mark the first time since Jan. 29, 1996 that Creighton and Southern Illinois will meet with both teams owning losing league marks … Southern Illinois is the only team other than Creighton to have played at least three games at Qwest Center and have a winning record. The Salukis are 4-2 in the building.
The Last Time They Played: The Jays won 73-72 in OT on January 14 last year in Omaha, a game in which Cavel Witter hit three free throws in the waning seconds to send the game into overtime. The return game is known colloquially as The Valentine’s Day Massacre, an 82-60 shellacking on ESPN that had most of SIU Arena leaving early.
The Series: The Jays are 45-36 all-time against Southern Illinois, and are 24-14 in games played in Omaha. The Salukis however, have won nine of the past 14 meetings. Fifteen of the last 19 meetings have been decided by nine points or less, including CU’s 73-72 overtime win in Omaha last year on Jan. 14, 2009. Dana Altman is 17-16 against Southern Illinois and 4-7 against Chris Lowery.
Gratuitous Linkage: Samuel Jackson is pretty much the coolest guy ever, so of course he needs an iPhone App. “iAmSamJackson” plays an array of soundbytes sure to come in handy at a bar…or at a Creighton-SIU game. Hey-ey, that doesn’t suck!
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ: School’s back in this week in the classroom, if not on the court. Time for a little Van Halen. You bet.
The Pick: Creighton 64, Southern Illinois 61. Its going to be ugly, and FSN is probably going to wish they’d televised another game instead, but it will be a win.