One month ago, Creighton beat Providence 73-67 despite blowing a 16-point lead. They weathered a 25-9 Friar run in the second half and foul trouble to Baylor Scheierman (who ultimately fouled out), Ryan Kalkbrenner and Arthur Kaluma. They won in spite of Providence grabbing an offensive rebound on 15 of their 40 missed shots, in spite of Ryan Nembhard having a brutal game while playing through an illness (no points on 0-of-7 shooting, three assists), and in spite of shooting 3-of-16 from three point range. Oh, and in a game where three starters missed significant time due to fouls and a fourth was a shadow of himself, they got next to nothing from the bench.
Arguably, it was a game CU shouldn’t have won. Rewatching it this week, it’s kind of remarkable that they did. Add in the fact that the Friars played that game without preseason first team All-Big East guard Jared Bynum — since his return he’s been terrific — and it’s tempting to let pessimism rule the day as the rematch approaches. Especially when that rematch is at a hostile arena where the Friars have won 34 of their last 35, with the lone loss coming to Villanova a year ago.
So why are the Jays favored to win by Las Vegas oddsmakers, with the line opening at minus-2.5?
In the 19 minutes and 19 seconds that Creighton’s starting five were on the floor together in the first meeting, CU boat raced Providence 40-21 even with the poor three-point shooting. Ed Cooley’s defensive plan in that game was to spread out and run the Jays’ shooters off the line. It made their three-point looks tough. But the Jays shredded them in the paint, outscoring Providence 46-32 and making more free throws (18) than the Friars attempted (15). The Jays’ keys to that victory — defending without putting Providence on the line, scoring on high-percentage looks in the paint, and not turning it over — should travel well even in a tough environment.
And with Nembhard now feeling better and playing well, an optimistic take on the rematch seems more realistic. Plus there’s this: Baylor Scheierman had 19 points and seven rebounds in the first game, and against Providence in the NCAA Tourney a year ago when he was at South Dakota State, Scheierman had 18 and 10.
If foul trouble once again comes for the Bluejay backcourt, the re-emergence of Shereef Mitchell could come into play as it did last week against UConn and Seton Hall. He looked like the Shereef of 2019 and 2020, using his quickness to be a pest and frustrate opponents, and providing a change of pace off the bench.
“I was telling Coach, I truly think I’m one of the better defenders in the country,” Mitchell said on the postgame radio show after Saturday’s game. “I truly have full confidence in that. My quickness allows me to beat them to spots, and allows me to be there at the right time. Trey bothers people with length, and I do it with quickness. It throws people him off to have those two styles guarding them.”
His teammates were the happiest people to see it. To a man, every one of them cited Mitchell as the X-Factor in the win over UConn.
“He’s been great for this program for like three or four years. This was the definition of getting an opportunity and taking control of it,” Alexander said. “Shereef has been positive every single step of the way. I’ve never heard him say anything negative about playing time or anything like that. When guys are like that, their opportunity is going to come. I’m so happy for him as a teammate and as a friend. He’s been working so hard and mentors all of us.”
“We had a conversation a couple of weeks ago where he really shared his frustration with me. And I don’t disagree with him. I know it’s hard,” Greg McDermott added. “My message to him was that he can’t do anything about the decision I make on who I’m going to play and how much. What he can control is whether he’s ready if his number is called, and making sure he’s done everything he can to prepare himself. To his credit, he has. When we’ve needed him this week, he’s given us great minutes. It’s a great example of internal fortitude, to stick with things. I’m so proud of him.”
Since the last meeting, Providence has gone 4-3 with losses to Marquette, Xavier and St. John’s by a combined 15 points. Bynum’s return has been huge; he scored 17 points in the final 10 minutes of their win over Villanova, making all six shots he attempted in that stretch. He had 10 assists against St. John’s and six against Xavier.
Bryce Hopkins, who had 20 points in Omaha on 6-of-13 shooting and 7-of-8 from the line with 10 rebounds, has continued to excel. He had 29 points and nine rebounds on Saturday in the loss to St. John’s on 10-of-20 from the floor, including 3-of-3 from outside and 6-of-7 from the line. He had 20 points and 11 rebounds against DePaul, 13 points and nine rebounds against Villanova, 19 points and 10 rebounds against Marquette and 10 points, 13 rebounds and five assists in the overtime loss to Xavier. Arthur Kaluma did an admirable job of staying in front of him and containing him in the first game — the problem was, Kaluma couldn’t stay out of foul trouble long enough to do it all night, and no one the Jays inserted in his place could slow Hopkins down.
Ed Croswell is a crafty big man and had 10 points and 10 rebounds — seven offensive — in the first meeting. Those offensive boards were glaring, to be sure. But most of them were the result of plays where Kalkbrenner blocked or altered the shot of a driving Friar. Devin Carter, who makes his living off the bounce, was just 4-of-14 from the floor and got stuffed at the rim on multiple occasions. When that happened, Croswell came in on the backside of the shot and against a smaller Bluejay guard fighting for a rebound, proved too much to handle.
This game is likely to be won in the trenches again. For the Jays to be the team who wins, they’ll need to defend without fouling, avoid live ball turnovers that lead to transition buckets and extra possessions — because the Friars are likely to get a lot of those on offensive rebounds, so compounding the issue with turnovers could prove insurmountable — and keep Hopkins from getting hot.
- Tip: 6:00pm
- Venue: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, R.I.
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Jason Benetti and Bill Raftery
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Creighton radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 387 and on SXM app channel 977
- Providence radio: WPRO-99.7 FM/630 AM
- Announcers: John Rooke and Joe Hassett
- Streaming on 630wpro.com and the TuneIn app
- Providence is 13-0 at home this year and 6-0 in Big East play; on the road they’re 5-5 overall and 4-4 in league games. They’re 34-1 in their last 35 games at the AMP and 617-236 (.722) all-time.
- Bryce Hopkins leads the team in scoring (16.6) and rebounding (9.2), and has posted double-doubles in four of the the last seven games. He has nine on the season, including in Omaha where he had 20 and 10.
- With 10 league wins already this year, the Friars have now won 10 or more Big East games in eight of Ed Cooley’s 12 seasons as head coach.
- Creighton is 4-0 this February. In the past four seasons, Creighton owns a 21-5 mark in Big East games during the month of February, including a 7-1 record against top-25 competition. That overall record ranks as the best in the Big East, through games of Feb. 13, just ahead of Providence’s 16-8 mark.
- Creighton is the only school in the Big East with 12 or more league wins each of the previous three seasons. Among power conference schools, only Baylor (currently 8-4 in league play), Illinois (8-5), Kansas (8-4), UCLA (12-2) and Virginia (11-3) have had 12 or more more league wins the past three seasons entering this year.
- Creighton has never swept Providence in the season series since joining the Big East a decade ago.
Providence leads the all-time series 18-14 and is 10-4 in Friartown. Since Creighton joined PC in the Big East in 2013, the Friars have won 12-of-22 contests at all sites.
Creighton took a 73-67 decision in Omaha on Jan. 14th.
Creighton is 20-8 all-time when playing on Valentine’s Day, including four straight wins. Eleven years ago on Feb. 14, 2012, Creighton shot a Missouri Valley Conference record 77.5 percent (31-of-40) in a road win at Southern Illinois not to mention a school-record 85.7 percent shooting (12-for-14) from three-point range.
Enjoy the blurry, decidedly-non-high-def highlights of that game as televised by KM3!
The Bottom Line:
Providence has a 53.6% chance of victory according to ESPN’s BPI. But the Jays are slight favorites in both Las Vegas (either -1.5 or -2.5 depending on where you look) and KenPom (-1).
Given their lack of success at Providence over the years, including a 21-point blowout loss last February and a 17-point loss two years ago, it feels like the Jays’ eight game winning streak will end here.
Providence 74, Creighton 72
