Believe it or not, just five games remain on Creighton’s regular season schedule. We’re officially in the home stretch, which has Jays fans a bit concerned because their resume is not what they’d hoped it would be at this point. There’s a handful of “bad” losses and no top-line marquee win. Well, not yet anyway.
Villanova and their 13-2 (8-1 Big East) record are next up, and the Wildcats are coming in on the coattails of a 32-point destruction of Marquette. A win here would absolutely headline the Jays’ resume and help overcome the losses to Georgetown, Butler, and Marquette.
The Wildcats rank #5 in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and first in the Big East this season by nearly six points per 100 possessions over Creighton. The teams above ‘Nova? Iowa, Gonzaga, Baylor and Ohio State — three popular Final Four picks and a fourth team with the nation’s leading scorer.
They’re an offensive juggernaut no matter what metric you look at. 14th best in three-point shooting (38.7%). 15th best in free throw shooting (78.8%). Third-best in turnover percentage (just 13.6% of their possessions). Second-best in assist-to-turnover ratio (+1.70). 22nd best in effective field goal percentage (55.3%). 40th in assist-to-field goals made ratio (59.1% of their made baskets are assisted). And they have balance — 38.7% of their points come by the three, 43.8% by two-point shots, and the rest at the line.
Defensively, they’re a work in progress. Their defensive efficiency ranks 60th, a full 35.6 points per 100 possessions lower than their offensive efficiency (which quite simply is absurd).
But they do have weaknesses that Creighton might be able to exploit. Villanova’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 37.1% from three-point range this year, which ranks 299th and means their opponents shoot almost as well as they do from behind the arc. They don’t have great rim protection, with a block percentage of 4.3% (338th in D1). And because they shoot so many threes, their games tend to have a lot of long 50/50 rebounds that can become transition opportunities if you can corral them.
In Big East games, the Wildcats rank dead last in Field Goal Percentage Defense (.463) and 10th in 3-Point Field Goal Percentage Defense (.396).
Their offensive attack is led the terrific, versatile big man Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. He does everything and does it all well — post-ups, dribble drives, mid-range jumpers, three-pointers. His midrange game is particularly deadly; Robinson-Earl sinks 47.0% of his two-point jumpers. He’s a 34.7% shooter from behind the arc. He draws fouls and makes 78% of his free throws. And he’s their leading rebounder — 7.3 boards per game overall, with 2.5 offensive boards.
Against Marquette earlier this week, Robinson-Earl was one shy of a career high with 27 points on 10-of-11 shooting from the field, including 5-of-5 from beyond the 3-point arc. He had 14 points, six rebounds and five assists in the game before that against Georgetown. Versus St. John’s on February 3, he had 17 rebounds and 14 points.
Point guard Collin Gillespie is second in scoring at 14.5 points per game. He’s the prototypical Villanova point man — he doesn’t stand out with flash or style, flies a bit under the radar statistically, but is a stone-cold assassin. The method varies from night to night, but he always finds a way to change the game positively and is often the one making the momentum-shifting play. He leads the league in both assist-to-turnover rate (3.6) and free-throw shooting percentage (89.5%). Jays fans are all too familiar with that — in Omaha last season, CU led for most of the game before Gillespie made play after play to help the Wildcats steal the win.
Sophomore Justin Moore is third on the team in scoring at 12.9 points per game. He’s been really consistent all year, scoring in double figures in 12 of their 15 games, and often putting up standout numbers in multiple categories. For example: he had 10 points, five rebounds and four assists against Georgetown last week, nine points, five rebounds, three steals and three assists against St. John’s, and 16 points, five rebounds, two assists against Seton Hall. And while he’s the worst three-point shooter of their five primary players (32.5%) that says more about the other four guys than it does about Moore.
Caleb Daniels averages 11.2 points per game, and is their top marksman from long range. Daniels has made 31-of-70 (44.0%) from three-point range, and 7-of-14 (50.0%) in his last three games.
Jermaine Samuels is their fifth player in double figures at 11.1 points per game. He missed all 11 of his 3-point tries against the Jays a year ago, but counting on that happening again is a fools errand: Samuels is shooting 42.9% from 3-point range this year, and he’s 11-of-18 since the Wildcats returned from their COVID pause. He lit up the Hoyas last week, making 6-of-7 from three point range.
Notably, this will be just the second time Villanova has played in front of fans this year. At his Friday media availability, head coach Jay Wright said, “I never thought I’d be excited about playing in front of Creighton fans. But it’ll just be nice to have fans there.”
- Tip: 4:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FOX
- Announcers: Tim Brando and Nick Bahe
- In Omaha: Cox channel 10 (SD), 1010 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 42 (SD), 1042 (HD); DirecTV 42; Dish Network 42 or 5203
- Outside Omaha: Your local FOX affiliate
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Brody Deren
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite Radio:
- Creighton broadcast: SiriusXM channel 84
- Villanova broadcast: SiriusXM channel 201
- National Radio (syndicated):
- Westwood One radio network announcers: Kevin Kugler, P.J. Carlisimo
- Villanova has scored 40 or more points in the second half in 11 of their 15 games.
- In their 96-64 win over Marquette on Wednesday, Villanova set single-game season highs for points (96); made field goals (34); assists (25); field goal percentage (.630) and 3-point field goal percentage (.591).
- Villanova has been through three pauses since practice formally began. The first got started on Sept. 23, the second on Dec. 27 and the third on Jan. 4 after only one day of practice following the second pause. Villanova went 27 days between games from Dec. 23-Jan. 19 and played only three games in the month of January.
- Creighton is 0-11 all-time when making eight three-pointers or less against Villanova, but 4-3 when making nine or more trifectas. CU has hit 53-of-101 treys (52.5%) in the four wins, but 78-of-250 triples (31.2%) in the 11 losses.
- Creighton is 5-4 all-time against top-10 teams inside CHI Health Center Omaha. That includes a 3-2 mark when Creighton is also ranked in the top-25, and a 2-2 mark vs. Villanova.
- Creighton lost its first seven appearances and was 2-10 on FOX in its first six seasons as a Big East member. But over the past two seasons, Creighton is a perfect 5-0 on the network, going 2-0 in 2019-20 and 3-0 so far in 2020-21. CU currently owns a six-game winning streak on the channel, having also won its final appearance in 2018-19.
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 14-4, including a 5-2 record in Omaha. The teams last met on Feb. 1, 2020 at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, a 76-61 Bluejay victory.
On February 13, 2014, Doug McDermott scored 10 of Creighton’s first 13 points, and 8 of their final 14. And with his team down by two with less than a minute to go, in front of a loud, hostile Hinkle Fieldhouse crowd, McDermott sank a three-pointer to silence them. Then Will Artino blocked not one but two shots on a final defensive stand, and the Jays defeated Butler.
The Bottom Line:
The bottom line here is that Villanova is going to score — they’re one of the nation’s best offenses and even teams with much better defenses than the Jays have not stopped them. So to win, CU is going to have to execute their own offense, run when they can (because Villanova will try to grind the game into the mud; they rank 330th in tempo), and hit the open looks they’re certain to get from outside.
I think CU will be fired up for this one. They need the win badly. And they’ll get it.
#19 Creighton 77, #5 Villanova 75
