A year ago, Xavier was one of the worst-shooting teams in the country, and opponents repeatedly packed the paint defensively and dared the Musketeers to beat them from the perimeter. Creighton did it and had a lot of success — in Cincinnati, they were 5-of-26 on threes, and in Omaha they were 6-of-20. Creighton won both games by nearly identical scores (77-65 and 77-66).
Recognizable names Tyrique Jones, Quentin Goodin and Naji Marshall are gone from that team. And in their place, a completely different Xavier team has emerged, as they rebuilt their offense on the fly thanks to a pair of transfers who would have normally had to sit out a year.
Through eight games, the Musketeers have had a high-octane offense that averages 84.1 points per game on 51.2 percent shooting from the floor and 41.5 percent marksmanship from three-point range. But it’s still a small sample size, and the transformation is so total that it’s only natural for there to be doubters. Last week’s results showed that this new Xavier might be for real; they hung 99 points on a good Oklahoma team (making 19 of 32 from three-point range in the process), and 91 on Marquette (13 of 24 on threes).
It still feels like your eyes are deceiving you, though. The plodding X of the last couple of years, the one who took nearly 18 seconds to shoot every time they had the ball (227th slowest in D1)? Basically overnight they’re pushing tempo, running the floor, and have shaved over two seconds off their average possession length to rank 70th. Their effective field goal percentage is 59.1%, ranking 9th. They’re making 41.5% of their threes, 10th best in D1. They’re shooting 57.2% on two-pointers, 29th best in D1. They’ve had an assist on 67.2% of their made shots, 8th best.
And now they come to Omaha to take on a team built for that type of game, a team who welcomes opponents to turn games into track meets on their home floor and who rarely gets outscored in those types of games. What happens will be fascinating to watch.
6’4″ junior Adam Kunkel, a transfer from Belmont who got a waiver granting immediate eligibility just two weeks ago, inserted himself into Musketeer lore in his third game for the school on Sunday. He scored 22 points in 17 minutes, hitting 7-9 from the field — including the buzzer-beating three-pointer in the 91-88 win. How the heck does he follow that up?
He averaged 16.5 points a year ago for Belmont with 83 made three-pointers, but Xavier was not anticipating him being on the active roster this year. They’re thrilled he is, to state the obvious.
Similarly, Nate Johnson transferred from Gardner-Webb where he scored 13.5 points a game as a junior, made 84.5% from the line (71-of-84) and 41.1% from three-point range (74-of-180). He’s probably shooting at an unsustainable rate at the moment — he’s made 59.1% of his threes so far in a Xavier uniform (26-of-44) — but a forthcoming regression to the mean is no consolation to the teams he’s already lit on fire. Johnson made 7-of-9 three-pointers against Oklahoma, 4-of-6 against Marquette, and both attempts against Cincinnati, all in the last two weeks. Yikes.
Sophomore Zach Freemantle leads the team in scoring at 17.5 points per game, and is tied for the team lead in rebounds with 7.9. At 6’9″, 225 pounds he’s big enough to score on the block, but he can shoot, too — he’s made 42.9% of his threes and 60.5% of his midrange jumpers this year. Creighton got a taste of that versatility a year ago when he scored 18 points with 9 rebounds in the game in Omaha.
Senior guard Paul Scruggs was named the Big East Player of the Week after scoring 29 in the win over Marquette. He leads the conference with 7.0 assists per game, and is second on the team in scoring at 16.4 points per game. Given a bigger role and more attention from opposing defenses, he’s blossomed. Scruggs can get to the rim and finish — he’s shooting 76.0% on shots at the rim — and draw fouls, taking a team-high 31 free throws so far (and making 25). For a Creighton team that has struggled to stop dribble penetration this year, Scruggs is a big concern. CU no doubt remembers his effort in Cincinnati a year ago quite well: he made 9-of-13 shots in that game, scoring 19 points with 9 rebounds. With Ty-Shon Alexander guarding him in the rematch, he was just 2-of-8 for 7 points, but did grab 10 boards and dish out 6 assists.
Does Xavier really want to run-and-gun with the Bluejays in Omaha, and if they do, can they out-gun them? Does Creighton have an answer for their shooters if the Musketeers stay hot? Like I said, it’s a fascinating matchup.
- Tip: 2:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Adam Alexander and Bill Raftery
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite Radio:
- Creighton broadcast on channel 207
- Xavier broadcast on channel 384
- For Cord Cutters
- Xavier has hit 32 3-pointers over its last two games, including a school record 19 3-pointers in the Oklahoma win on Dec. 9 and 13 in the Marquette win on Dec. 20
- KyKy Tandy also averages in double figures at 10.5 points per game, and has made 41% of his shots so far overall and 40% (14-of-35) of his threes. He’s their sixth man and has come off the bench in all eight games so far.
- 6’8″ senior Jason Carter averages 7.1 points and 7.9 rebounds a game, and more than that seems to make one or two little plays every game that help the team win. The World-Herald’s Jon Nyatawa compared him to Damien Jefferson in that respect, and I love that comp — they’re both unsung heroes of their team’s success who do whatever it takes, big or small, to win. Whatever happens in this game, Carter’s fingerprints will be on it.
- Freshman guard Dwon Odom had started the first seven games, averaging 6.4 points and 4.5 assists, but tested positive for COVID and missed the Marquette game. While he’s out, they’re patching the starting lineup together; Colby Jones (4.7 points, 3.0 rebounds) started Sunday.
- Creighton will start allowing fans into CHI Health Center starting with this game, available to season ticket holders on a rotating basis. The plan approved by the Douglas County Health Department allows CU to sell up to 10% of capacity which is 1,800 seats. It will be interesting to see what effect on energy and momentum this will have.
- Creighton has started exactly 6-2 after eight games for the fourth season in a row. It’s the ninth time in the past 10 seasons that CU has won at least six of its first eight games. Notably this year’s team is scoring more, shooting better and has more assists through eight games than last year’s eventual Big East championship club, which is astonishing given the narrative surrounding the team that they’re struggling. This year’s team has scored six more points per game, is shooting 50.4% (compared to 47.3% a year ago), and has 150 assists (to 121 a year ago) through the same point.
- Creighton has played 299 regular and postseason contests at CHI Health Center Omaha all-time in the 18-year-old facility, which means that Wednesday will be the 300th game. The Bluejays own a 247-52 (.826) record all-time at the facility.
Xavier owns a 17-15 lead in the series with Creighton, but Creighton owns a 6-5 edge in Omaha. Last season Creighton secured its first regular-season sweep of the Musketeers since both teams joined the Big East in 2013, winning 77-65 in Cincinnati for Greg McDermott’s 500th career win and then triumphing in FS1’s All-Access game, 77-66 in Omaha.
Twenty-one of the 32 all-time meetings have been within five points in the final minute, including seven of the last 11 games.
On December 23, 2008, Creighton defeated DePaul 83-75 in the final of the Las Vegas Classic. Booker Woodfox scored 26 points on 5-of-9 shooting from three point range to earn MVP honors, and the Jays led for all but 90 seconds. Back in those days, playing (and beating) DePaul was one of the schedule highlights of the year!
When the Primer started, it was on a standalone blog, Creighton was in the Valley and this column was read by 25 people on a good day, and far less on others. That made inside jokes like sticking Wham!’s “Last Christmas” at the bottom of the final Primer before Christmas a funny yearly tradition. It’s continued to be a tradition through all the years on WBR; every time I think about breaking the tradition I re-watch the video and realize, yeah, this is a tradition for a reason. Especially now that they’ve remastered the video into 4K HD.
Enjoy!
The Bottom Line:
KenPom predicts the Jays winning 79-73, while ESPN’s BPI gives CU a roughly 73% chance of victory. I think the score sounds too low, but the outcome sounds right.
#13 Creighton 85, #22 Xavier 79
