Creighton opens Big East play Wednesday in Cincinnati with a 5-5 record, their worst record after 10 games in the Greg McDermott Era. Granted, the schedule wasn’t nearly as tough that year, but even the 2014-15 team — the last and so far only team of the McDermott Era to finish with a losing record and miss the postseason — had a better mark through 10 games. You have to go back to 2009-10 to find the last Bluejay team with a .500 or worse mark at this point of the season, as Dana Altman’s final Creighton team started 4-6.
But the start of Big East play gives them a chance to wipe the slate clean and start over to some extent. That process began over the weekend as three of the five starters were benched in Saturday’s loss to Kansas State. The post-Jackson McAndrew injury starting five had been Nik Graves, Josh Dix, Blake Harper, Jasen Green and Owen Freeman, but that group frequently got off to slow starts — Baylor, Iowa State and Nebraska all built sizable first half leads. But to most coaches, who starts a game is less important than who finishes it, and McDermott is no exception. He’s shown a willingness to tinker with the starting five over his 16 seasons, but second half minutes mostly go to players he can trust to do what’s expected of them.
If second-half minutes against K-State are any indication, the only player from the three former starters with much of a role beyond spot minutes in the immediate future is Owen Freeman. Blake Harper played seven minutes and zero after halftime. Nik Graves played nine minutes, and just three in the second half. McDermott rolled with six guys over the final ten minutes — Ty Davis, Austin Swartz, Isaac Traudt, Josh Dix, Jasen Green and Fedor Zugic. Add Freeman to that list, and that’s probably going to be the Bluejays’ seven-man rotation for the start of Big East play and perhaps longer, with Graves and Harper on the outside looking in.
Their opponent in the league opener is Xavier, a team still finding its footing under new coach Richard Pitino. Picked eighth in the preseason Big East poll, they got off to a 2-2 start that included concerningly close wins over bad teams (66-62 over Marist and 74-69 over Le Moyne) and 19-point losses to Santa Clara and Iowa. They’ve won six of seven, with the lone loss a one-point defeat to KenPom #23 Georgia. And a 79-74 win over Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout has Musketeer fans cautiously optimistic.
Through 11 games of the Pitino Era, there’s been a couple of certainties on offense: ball security and unselfishness. They’ve turned it over on just 12.0% of their possessions, the top mark in the country. Their assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.14 is also the top mark in the country. And they’ve had an assist on 70% of their made baskets, third-best in the country. Those qualities have masked what is otherwise a pedestrian shooting team, at least inside the arc; the Musketeers have shot 37.1% from three (60th) but just 47.0% from two (298th). They’ve also made just 67.6% from the free throw line.
While their efficiency from three is pretty good, their quantity of made threes has been really good — they rank second in the Big East and 36th in the country with 10.5 made threes per game, and have made 10 or more in six of their last seven games. They’ve made 16 twice this year already, against West Virginia and Old Dominion.
The assist rate, while outstanding, also masks another part of their offense. Without an assist from a teammate, Xavier often struggles to create scoring opportunities because of a lack of guys that can create their own shot.
Defensively, they’ve done a good job both of preventing opponents from taking threes (just 32.1% of opponent’s shots have been from behind the arc, 19th fewest in D1) and defending the ones they do take (opponents have shot 30.4% from three, 70th best). Interior defense is another story. Their opponents have shot 52.6% on two-pointers, and their low block percentage means teams have faced little resistance in scoring at the rim.
6’8” senior Tre Carroll leads them in scoring at 16.9 points per game (sixth in the Big East) and is their only player who has scored in double figures in every game, including a career-high 30 in the win over Cincinnati on Dec. 5. Carroll was 13-of-18 on two-pointers in that game, destroying the Bearcats in the paint. If not for going 1-of-5 from three and 1-of-6 from the free throw line, he might have hung 40 on them. He’s made 47.7% of his shots overall (fifth best in the Big East), and roughly 1/3 of his attempts have been threes (53 of 149), making 39.6% from deep. His size will make him a difficult matchup for Creighton.
6’10” Jovan Milicevic is second on the team in scoring at 12.9 points per game, but has been their leading scorer in six of the last eight. Milicevic played for Pitino at New Mexico a year ago, where he averaged 3.8 points and 2.0 rebounds in around 12 minutes a game — but the signs of what he’s become this year were apparent, as he made 27-of-59 from three (45.8%) and a solid 46-of-95 (48.4%) inside. Through 11 games, he’s already equalled that output on both fronts, making 27-of-63 (42.9%) from outside and 47-of-110 (42.7%) with similar efficiency.
6’9” forward Filip Borovicanin ranks in the top ten in the Big East in rebounds (7.4), assists (4.0) and steals (1.5), and nearly had a triple-double in their last game against Missouri State (13 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists). He’s had three double-doubles, and averages 8.9 points per game. His ability to pass out of the paint to open shooters has been a big part of Xavier’s offensive success.
In the backcourt, Malik Messina-Moore is their primary playmaker, and leads the Big East Conference and is 15th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio at 4.18. While he’s struggled scoring the ball this year, making just 30.6% overall and 24.3% from three (9-of-37) he’s shown the ability to shoot well both at Pepperdine and Montana. A year ago, he made 61-of-149 (40.9%) of his threes for the Grizzlies.
Roddie Anderson III (12.6 points per game) and All Wright (10.7 points) also average in double figures, getting there in different ways. Anderson is more of a slasher and 85 of his 139 points have either come via two-pointer or free throw, and while he’s attempted 56 threes, he’s made just 18 (32.1%). Wright, meanwhile, has scored 66 of his 118 points from the three-point line and is shooting 48.9% from deep. He’s made four or more of them in four separate games. Wright hit four free throws in the final 41 seconds of their five-point win over Cincinnati, and though they ultimately lost, he hit a go-ahead three with 1:38 to play against Georgia. The Missouri Valley Freshman of the Year at Valpo a year ago, Wright’s 526 points rank fourth in MVC history by a freshman and were the most since Doug McDermott had 581 in 2010-11.
Tip: 5:30pm
Venue: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
TV: FS1
Announcers: Jeff Levering and LaPhonso Ellis
In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
Announcer: John Bishop
Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 383 as well as on the SiriusXM App
Live Stats:
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6’10” sophomore Anthony Robinson had his best game of the season vs. Texas A&M-CC on Nov. 28 with season highs of 12 points and eight rebounds and followed that up with five points and five assists vs. Saint Francis on Dec. 1. He grabbed five rebounds in nine minutes in the Cincinnati win on Dec. 5.
7’0” Pape N’Diaye scored five points with two boards and a block in UNLV’s 83-65 loss to Creighton a year ago. He’s played sparingly so far for Xavier, but is coming off a game where he had four blocks in 13 minutes against Missouri State. N’Diaye also had three points, three rebounds and two blocks in five minutes vs. Cincinnati.
6’5” Isaiah Walker grabbed five rebounds in 11 minutes vs. Cincinnati, and scored in double figures for the first time as a Musketeer with 10 points vs. Saint Francis on Dec. 1. He’s averaging 4.1 points and 2.5 boards per game.
Creighton owns a 17-10 record in its last 27 conference openers, but has never opened league play against Xavier. Greg McDermott enters Wednesday 12-12 all-time in conference openers as a Division I head coach, including an 8-7 mark at Creighton (6-6 in the Big East).
Josh Dix has made a three-pointer in each of his first 10 games with Creighton, and also made a trey in his final 12 games with Iowa. His 22 game streak with a three-pointer is tied for the nation’s 14th-longest active streak through games of Dec. 15.
Austin Swartz has 39 points in CU’s last three games after just eight total points in Creighton’s initial seven contests. One game after a DNP-CD against Oregon to close out the Players Era Championship in Las Vegas, Swartz scored 11 points on Dec. 2 in 13 minutes vs. Nicholls, a career-high 16 points while also adding two steals at Nebraska, and 12 points in 25 minutes against Kansas State.
Xavier owns a 23-20 lead in the series with Creighton, including a 13-8 edge in Cincinnati. Twenty-five of the 43 all-time meetings have been within five points in the final minute, including 11 of the last 22 games. Greg McDermott is 14-14 against Xavier, but never faced Richard Pitino. Pitino has also never faced Creighton.
On December 17, 2019, Denzel Mahoney made his Bluejay debut in a home win over Oklahoma. He scored 14 points in 29 minutes by forcing the action — driving into the defense to draw fouls, absorbing contact to make tough layups, and hitting a couple of three-pointers to keep the defense honest.
Welcome to the 𝓅𝒶𝓇𝓉𝓎#GoJays pic.twitter.com/fxvaFczmr4
— Creighton Men’s Basketball (@BluejayMBB) December 18, 2019
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𝗥𝗢𝗖𝗞#GoJays pic.twitter.com/BkpNfmBxRO— Creighton Men’s Basketball (@BluejayMBB) December 18, 2019
Xavier opened as 2.5 point favorites and by midday on Wednesday, the line has moved to 3.5. KenPom predicts a two-point Xavier win. ESPN’s BPI predicts a Bluejay win with 54.4% odds. It’s not often I side with ESPN these days, but I like what their algorithm is thinking in this case.
Creighton 76, Xavier 72