Last year in Indianapolis, Creighton was done in by a slow start. They scored seven points in the first nine minutes, with more turnovers (4) and fouls (4) than field goals (3), and trailed 27-13. They never recovered. Avoiding a slow start on the road is always a good idea, but particularly in a venue like Hinkle Fieldhouse where the fans can (and do) make an impact on the outcome when the Bulldogs keep them engaged. It’s doubly important this year, because Butler is one of the best teams in America.
Led by Kamar Baldwin, the Bulldogs have had a tremendous start to the season despite low expectations coming in. Picked eighth by the league’s coaches, they’ve defied those predictions by starting 13-1 — with wins over seven power conference foes in Missouri, Stanford, St. John’s, Florida, Minnesota, Ole Miss and Purdue. Five of them were away from Hinkle. The only loss came to a Top 10 Baylor squad on the road, and was by one point. There might not be a better resume anywhere in D1 hoops. They’ve tested themselves, and they’ve passed the test.
It will be a clash of styles. Butler’s adjusted tempo is 337th out of 351 teams in D1, with games averaging just 65.1 possessions. Their average possession length is 19.9 seconds, ranking 344th. Creighton, of course, prefers to play much much faster than that. The Jays have had just four games this year with under 70 possessions; every single game Butler has played has been under 70, including a 57-possession rock fight against Mizzou.
The contrasts don’t stop at tempo. Butler’s defense has been downright stifling through 14 games; opponents have an effective field goal percentage of only 42.3%, ranking 11th best. And they’ve been equally good at defending the perimeter (27.0% opponent shooting percentage, 12th best) and the paint (43.4% opponent shooting percentage, 33rd best). Creighton’s been improved defensively, especially on the perimeter. They’ve held opponents to just 30.0% shooting, which would be the best mark of the McDermott Era if it holds up through the rest of the season. Their opponent effective field goal percentage is 48.0%; while not stellar, and ranked 137th, it’s the best since 2012-13. But they’re not in the same league as Butler defensively.
That sets up the classic strength versus strength battle — will Butler’s defense win out? Or will Creighton’s pace and shooting prowess be too much? It’s the same story it always is against Butler. Since the two teams joined the Big East, when the Jays score 72 or more points against the Bulldogs, they’re 6-1. When they score 71 or fewer, they’re 1-4.
A matchup is rarely encapsulated so clearly by one stat, but in this case, it truly is. If CU plays the pace and tempo they prefer, they’ll win. If Butler grinds the game into the dirt, they’ll win.
Baldwin averages 14.3 points and 4.4 rebounds a game, and is the Bulldogs’ top offensive weapon. He takes 35% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor (17th most in the country) and ends 29.9% of their offensive possessions with either a made shot, a missed shot or a turnover (55th in the country). In other words, when Baldwin is on the floor, he’s looking to score. And he’d been having a remarkably consistent senior season until mid-December.
He’d scored in double figures in eight straight games, and then went into a massive three-game skid — he shot 1-for-8 against 333rd ranked Southern to score two points, 2-for-9 for five points against Purdue, and 1-for-11 with three points against Louisiana Monroe. He busted out with 19 points on 7-for-13 shooting in the Big East opener against St. John’s…and then missed practice the next day with an ankle injury. It’s not believed to be serious, and he’s officially listed as day-to-day. LaVall Jordan says that Baldwin will be a gametime decision on Saturday morning. The smart bet is he’ll play and the Hinkle atmosphere will provide the needed adrenaline to push through. How effective he’ll be is another story.
A year ago, Baldwin scored 28 points in Indianapolis against the Bluejays. He made 8-of-11 shots inside the arc, 3-of-7 from three, and had 11 rebounds. He had 23 in the rematch in Omaha, making 6-of-8 inside and 2-of-4 from three-point range, though he did have five turnovers in that game. They had no answer for him in either game. If he can’t play, or if he’s limited by the ankle, that obviously changes the calculation on this game significantly.
Sean McDermott averages 11.4 and 5.1, and is their top three-point shooter (31-of-69, 44.9%). The 6’6″ senior had 11 total points in two games against CU a year ago, with 8 in Indianapolis (on 3-of-6 shooting) and 3 points in Omaha. That was fairly typical for McDermott last year, as it was an up-and-down season filled with games where he’d go off (10 games in double figures), and games where he barely scored (10 games with five or fewer points). This year he’s been much more consistent, scoring in double figures in all but three games. He’s coming off a double-double against St. John’s, with 12 points and 10 rebounds.
UW-Milwaukee transfer Bryce Nze is averaging 9.9 points and 7.1 boards in his first season of eligibility for Butler, and is incredibly efficient, making 60-of-96 shots this year (62.5%). He’s basically picked up exactly where he left off at Milwaukee; Nze was one of the most efficient shooters in the country both seasons there, making 62.6% of his shots as a sophomore (134-for-214) and 66.0% as a freshman (95-for-144). Part of the reason he’s so efficient? Nze rarely, if ever, shoots anything away from the rim. He’s attempted one 3-pointer all season. He’s attempted just 13 shots classified as two-point jumpers. His other 82 shots have been at or near the rim.
In his first full season at Butler after transferring from Duke and becoming eligible mid-season last year, Jordan Tucker is averaging 8.7 points and 3.2 rebounds a game. He comes off the bench, but typically plays starter-type minutes. Against the Jays, he was a black hole — he was 3-of-14 in the two games, including a 1-of-8 night from three-point range in Omaha. He’s primarily a threat from the perimeter, with 74.1% of his shot attempts coming from three-point range.
Bryce Golden is their fourth-leading scorer at 8.5 points per game, and also chips in 3.6 rebounds on average. The 6’9″, 245-pound Golden will be a tough matchup for the Bluejays; how they combat his physical presence inside will be an interesting subplot.
Starting point guard Aaron Thompson looks to set up his teammates instead of finding his own offense, which is why he averages just 6.9 points per game. He’s only attempted 68 shots despite playing the most minutes on the team (nearly 34 minutes a game). For the season, he has 5.5 assists per game and a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. Against St. John’s earlier this week he flipped that ratio — he had six turnovers to only two assists in 39 minutes.
- Tip: 11:00am
- Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Vince Welch and Dickey Simpkins
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- For Cord Cutters
- Butler allows just 53.9 points per game to rank fourth nationally. Their last four opponents have scored a combined 67 points in the first halves of the games, an average of just 16.8 points.
- Butler committed 24 turnovers in their win over St. John’s, but allowed the Red Storm to turn them into just 15 points.
- Against St. John’s, Butler led 37-16 at the half and was outscored 42-23 in the second — they were on the wrong side of a 29-4 run that saw them fall behind by five with three minutes left. They rallied to win 60-58 thanks to ending the game on a 7-0 run of their own.
- Creighton scored 92 points on Wednesday vs. Marquette after pouring in 91 points in its final Big East game of last season vs. DePaul. It’s the first time that Creighton has scored 90 points or more in consecutive league games since January of 1999, when the Bluejays scored 90 at Evansville on Jan. 20, followed by 95 points vs. Illinois State three days later. Creighton has never scored 90 points in three consecutive league games.
- Creighton enters Saturday with an eight-game winning streak, the program’s longest since starting the 2016-17 campaign with a 13-0 record. It is CU’s sixth different win streak of eight or longer under Greg McDermott.
- The 12:00 local time tip (11:00am central) ties the earliest game time of the McDermott Era. Creighton is 7-6 in 13 games played at that time under McDermott.
Creighton is 11-8 all-time vs. Butler and 3-6 in Indy. Greg McDermott is 7-7 in his career vs. Butler, including a 7-5 mark on the Creighton sideline. He is 2-2 against LaVall Jordan.
The last time they met, Creighton was determined to not have a repeat of the slow start that doomed them in Indianapolis, and flew all around the court for rebounds and loose balls like their hair was on fire. And they won.
WBR’s Matt DeMarinis sat down with Marcus Zegarowski for a 40-minute podcast interview Thursday. It’s a must-listen. My favorite quote?
“At the end of the day, we are tough, are going to out-dog you, whether we play at your place or at home. That is what I want for this team.”
On January 4, 2017 the Bluejays lived above the rim, literally, in a 85-72 win at St. John’s. Led by freshman phenom Justin Patton, the Jays had more dunks than made three-pointers. We wrote the next day:
“In front of NBA scouts, Patton had another monster game, scoring a career-high 25 points on 11-14 shooting, with nine rebounds, four assists, a block, and a steal in 30 minutes. Five of his 11 made baskets came on dunks, flying over, around, and occasionally straight past the smaller Red Storm frontcourt. It seems like his arsenal of weapons grows every game — from fadeaway jumpers, to up-and-under layups using the rim to shield the ball from a defender, to effortless dunks, to three-pointers…he has so many ways to score, it’s ridiculous.
Case in point: how many seven-footers have you seen that have the hand-eye coordination to catch a ball while moving toward the basket, and then have multiple ways to finish depending on how the rim is defended?
It’s one of the most memorable games of the decade, and was featured in our retrospective for good reason.
The Bottom Line:
The Jays have averaged 77.0 points in their seven victories over Butler in the Big East era, and 66.2 points in their five losses. That’s really what this comes down to.
I think Butler, at home, turns this into more of a rock fight than CU wants and pulls out a close one.
#11 Butler 65, Creighton 61
