For the third time in five years, Creighton has lost their starting point guard to a season-ending injury late in the season. It’s an epidemic at this point; the only full-time starting point guards in the last 20 years to leave CU without a season-ending injury are Austin Chatman and Antoine Young. Everyone else has seen at least one season end prematurely.
Tyler McKinney’s eye injury ended his 2003-04 season 18 games early. Josh Doztler’s knee injury ended his 2006-07 season in February. Then they had eight years of Young and Chatman miraculously staying healthy. Maurice Watson’s knee ended his 2016-17 season in January. Marcus Zegarowski’s knee injury ended his 2019-20 season in the final minute of the regular season. And it continued on Wednesday night when likely Big East freshman of the year Ryan Nembhard broke his wrist in a collision with St. John’s guard Posh Alexander.
CU seems better suited to regroup after this one than they typically have in the past, though. When Maurice Watson’s season ended in January of 2017, his replacement was Davion Mintz — a freshman who had averaged 4.9 minutes in his career to that point. Between his inexperience and his differing skillset, the Jays had to change how they played; with Mintz at the helm they played at a slower pace, they scored fewer points, and they finished 7-9 after starting 18-2.
Had COVID not canceled the 2020 NCAA Tournament, their point guard (or at least, their primary ball handler) was slated to be Ty-Shon Alexander. One half of a lineup sans Marcus Zegarowski in the Big East Tourney against St. John’s showed there were a lot of wrinkles to iron out, with not much time to do it.
Nembhard is a vitally important part of Creighton’s success, but that success isn’t entirely dependent on anything specific that only he can provide. Over the final 12 minutes of Wednesday’s game, the 2021-22 Bluejays mostly looked like they have all year — tough defensively, running their offense through Ryan Hawkins, making sure Ryan Kalkbrenner gets touches in the paint.
They’ll miss Nembhard’s ability to get clutch baskets, his speed in the open floor, and his ability to create shots for teammates off the pick and roll. They’ll have severe depth issues with just eight scholarship players active, one of which (Arthur Kaluma) is still on a minutes restriction after his own injury. They may benefit somewhat from Trey Alexander’s size — he’s four inches taller — as it will make it tougher for opponents to trap the ball with taller defenders. They will definitely benefit from the coaching staff’s decision to put Alexander at the backup point guard spot in mid-January in an effort to give Nembhard a break from being the primary ball handler without having to go the bench. For 12 games against Big East foes, he’s run the offense, handled the ball against pressure, gotten the team into their sets, and experienced success. In other words, all of the things he’s now tasked with doing full-time.
It showed in the second half Wednesday, when a confident Alexander had his fingerprints all over the victory.
After he debuted in that role in the first St. John’s game on January 19, he told John Bishop on the postgame radio show that he hadn’t played point since his last year of EYBL basketball. Imagine if that was still true now.
Thankfully, it isn’t. That decision by the coaching staff accelerated his growth, and it could very well be the decision that keeps Creighton’s season from derailing the way the 2016-17 campaign did.
You couldn’t pick a tougher spot for your first full-game test, though.
Picked seventh in the preseason Big East coaches’ poll, one spot ahead of Creighton, Providence has wildly outperformed expectations. They sit at 23-3, and the three losses are to Virginia, Marquette, and Villanova. And with a win on Saturday, they can clinch their first-ever regular season Big East title.
The Dunkin’ Donuts Center is generally one of the loudest venues in the league; with that backdrop and an 8:30 local time Saturday tip, the place is likely to be deafening. Don’t judge the rest of the season by what happens Saturday, is what I’m saying.
Kind of like Creighton, the metrics aren’t kind to Providence. A major conference team with a 23-3 record would typically be toward the top of every ranking you could find; Providence is not. They’re 44 in KenPom, 28 in the NET, and have been dismissed for the better part of four months as a fluke.
They’re the luckiest team in D1 according to KenPom, with a winning percentage .208 above where they’re projected to be based on their analytics — they’ve won 20.8% more games than expected based on their numbers. The only team in his database with a higher deviation? 2008 Wagner, a team who somehow went 8-1 in games decided by four points or fewer despite ranking 339th in free throw percentage.
What gives with the Friars? Basically, analytics frown on them because they’ve won what mathematical models would suggest is an unsustainable number of close games. They’re 7-0 in games decided by four points or fewer. They’re 13-2 in the Big East but nine of the wins have been by single digits. Three of their last four games have gone overtime, and they won all three.
Is it really unsustainable though? Or is it just that the Friars are an old (by college standards), strong group of dudes who fit their system and know their roles, and are comfortable in uncomfortable game situations?
Providence is the ninth oldest team in D1 according to KenPom, starting four seniors and a junior. Their top six players have played in nearly 700 combined games. Seven hundred.
They’re the same big, bruising Friar team they’ve been throughout Ed Cooley’s tenure as head coach. They play slow, with an average possession lasting 18.6 seconds (295th in D1). Their adjusted tempo is 65.2, ranking 292nd. Both of those stats magnify mistakes like live-ball turnovers and make offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities doubly important.
The Friars’ bruising attack is led by 6’10”, 260-pound Nate Watson. Just about everything they do offensively runs through Watson, as they’re committed to getting him as many post touches as they can. Defensively, he’s an elite shot blocker and rim protector who also cleans up the glass. He leads the team in scoring (14.1 ppg), leads the conference in shooting percentage at 57.0%, and he is second on the squad in rebounding (5.6 rpg).
And he’s coming off a huge week. Watson scored 20 points and grabbed six rebounds in the Friars’ 89-84 loss to No. 10 Villanova on February 15. On February 20, he scored a game-high 22 points on 10-15 shooting in the Friars’ 71-70 overtime win at Butler, scoring 12 points in the final 25 minutes of the game to help the Friars overcome a 19-point deficit.
Jared Bynum is third on the team in scoring (12.9 points per game) and leads them in assists with 3.5 per game in a super-sub / sixth-man role. The 5’10”, 180-pound junior is a change of pace from Providence’s typical player profile, and in the month of February has been sensational. In six games this month he’s averaging 23.1 points, four rebounds and four assists — and he’s done it consistently, as his lowest scoring game saw him get 18.
Al Durham, a graduate transfer from Indiana, is second on the team in assists (3.19 per game) and is second in points at 13.4 per game. Playing 82.4% of the possible minutes through 26 games — Durham rarely leaves the floor — he’s been a consistent, huge addition to Cooley’s team. Where Durham has really affected the game is at the line; he’s attempted more free throws (178) than two-point shots (159) this year. Six times he’s attempted double-digit free throws this season, including making 12-of-12 against DePaul and 12-of-13 against St. John’s earlier in February. 45.2% (151 of 334) of the senior’s points have come at the line. He’s a difficult player to stop once he gets a head of steam, and will put pressure on the Bluejay defense.
Had the first game in Omaha taken place, it would have been without A.J. Reeves, who averages 9.6 points per game and has the second-most made three pointers on the team. He’s back, and heating up — Reeves made 5-of-8 from three point range in the 3OT win over Xavier earlier this week, and 2-of-6 against Butler last weekend.
Alyn Breed, a 6’3” second-year freshman, started in Reeves’ place when he missed five games in January. Breed averages 3.4 points and 0.9 assists per game, but Bluejay fans remember him for hanging 15 points on them in a 74-70 win in Omaha last January — he made 2-of-3 in the paint, 2-of-2 from three-point range, and 5-of-8 at the line with six boards and three assists. It’s the best game of his career so far, by a fair margin.
Noah Horchler is their top rebounder and biggest threat from three-point range, averaging 10.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Well over half of his shot attempts have been threes, and he’s hit at a 41.2% clip (47-of-114).
- Tip: 7:30pm
- Venue: Dunkin’ Donuts Center, Providence, RI
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: John Fanta and Donny Marshall
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Ross Ferrarini
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
This is the first time Providence has ever won 13 Big East games in a season, and with a win Saturday they will win their first-ever regular season title.
Jared Bynum is the 1st Big East player in 25 years with 3 games of 25+ points off the bench in the same season — and all three have come this month. He had 27 last week against Xavier, 25 on February 12 against DePaul, and 32 on February 6 against Georgetown.
The Friars are ranked #11/#10 this week, their 10th week being ranked. The highest the Friars have been ranked this season was #8/#9 the week of Feb. 14. Prior to entering the poll on Dec. 20, 2021, the last time the Friars had been ranked was Feb. 22, 2016.
Creighton has won six games in a row, and can grow that total with a seventh straight win on Saturday. This is the second time that the Bluejays have won six straight Big East games in the same season, having also done so last year. Creighton last won seven conference games in a row during the same season in 2011-12, when it won 11 games in a row in the Missouri Valley Conference.
In Wednesday’s win at St. John’s, Arthur Kaluma returned from a knee injury that sidelined him for four games. He had 12 points in 19 minutes, the latest in a string of good performances by the Bluejay freshman: In the last eight games he’s played, Kaluma has averaged 11.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game.
Ryan Hawkins has averaged 15.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in seven contests against ranked teams, shooting 50.6 percent from the field, 45.9 percent from three-point range and 94.1 percent at the line.
Providence leads the all-time series, 17-12. Since Creighton joined PC in the Big East in 2013, the Friars have won 11-of-19 contests, including 2-of-3 Big East Tournament contests.
Creighton hasn’t played a game on February 26 in over a decade — the last one came in the regular season finale in 2011, a 63-55 win over Northern Iowa in Greg McDermott’s first season as head coach.
Here’s some of what Ott wrote the next day:
Creighton’s most important player, Antoine Young, picked up 2 fouls within the first 5 minutes of the game, and the junior point guard went to the bench for the final 25 minutes of the half. Echenique joined him shortly thereafter, as the starting center logged only 7 minutes during the first half.
Without the team’s court general and enforcer on the floor, the Jays struggled. CU turned the ball over 7 times, lost the rebounding battle at half 16-11, and looked generally uninspired in what amounted to a tune-up game against a team the Jays will play again in less than a week. But is that really an excuse for missing free throws, throwing the ball away, and not guarding the paint? The Panthers outscored the Bluejays 18-8 in the low post in the first half, without Lucas O’Rear on the court.
I’m not privy to what was said at halftime, but I’m sure Greg McDermott reminded his guys they were playing for their seniors, and playing for numerous streaks the program is proud of. But maybe it was simpler than that. Perhaps it is as easy as telling his guys that Northern Iowa has no one who can consistently defend Creighton’s post players, nor score consistently against them. The Jays came out of halftime, immediately fed Echenique the ball in the paint, and he scored and was fouled. Sure, he missed the free throw — I’m honestly surprised the Jays shot 45% from the free throw line for the game, as it seemed so much worse than that sitting in the stands — but during the next trip for UNI the big Venezuelan blocked a shot attempt by Kwadzo Ahelegbe and the Jays turned it into a 3-pointer by Young on the other end thanks to the rebound, the push, and the assist by Jahenns Manigat.
The Bottom Line:
It’s Senior Night for seven Providence seniors, four of them starters, all of them looking to clinch the school’s first ever Big East regular season title. That’s a tough hill for any team to climb; it’s a mountain for Creighton after the week they’ve had.
#11 Providence 65, Creighton 60
