Creighton has had 10 days to think about — or forget, depending on your point of view — a regrettable loss to Villanova on December 20. The Jays led by double digits in the second half only to lose in overtime. Over the last 10 minutes of regulation, the Jays scored four points on their last 16 possessions, shooting 2-of-11 from the field (0-of-5 from 3) and 0-of-3 from the foul line with five turnovers and zero second-chance points on their three offensive rebounds.
And now they head to Milwaukee to take on #10 Marquette, one of the three Big East favorites at the beginning of the season. The Golden Eagles lost their conference opener at Providence; UConn lost at Seton Hall, too, so combined with the Jays loss to Villanova all three began league play 0-1. Both Marquette and UConn rebounded to win over the weekend. Will CU respond in kind? Or will they fall to 0-2 in the league?
Last season, Creighton lost six times in Big East play. One-third of those losses were to Marquette, who beat them 69-58 in Milwaukee and 73-71 in Omaha. The second meeting saw the Jays blow a double-digit lead thanks to a prolonged scoreless spell and a slew of careless turnovers (sound familiar?) — seven giveaways in just 5-1/2 minutes, and 15 for the game. Leading 40-32 at the half, the Jays came out and committed a turnover on nine of their first 21 possessions. Marquette erased the lead with an 8-0 run in just under three minutes; they built a 10-point lead of their own with a 13-0 run over 4:00 a little bit later.
Though the Jays battled back and took the lead, the playmaking ability of big man Oso Ighodaro was too much — when he wasn’t scoring over Ryan Kalkbrenner, he was dishing it off to his guards for good shots. They sliced up the Bluejay defense so completely that Greg McDermott benched Arthur Kaluma for his repeated miscues and misreads, and then switched to a zone defense with Francisco Farabello in his place. It worked, as Marquette went five minutes without a point and seven minutes without a basket. But then Tyler Kolek went to work, scoring on drives repeatedly in the final 90 seconds.
All of the problems that plagued CU in that game are still a problem this time. Individually, Ighodaro is averaging 13.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game, while shooting 65.7% from the floor (65-of-98, all on twos). Kolek is averaging 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.2 assists while making 59.6% of his shots inside and 43.5% of his threes. And Kam Jones is averaging 14.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists while leading the team in three-point shooting (29-of-74).
“In my evaluation, I think they have, if not the best passing point guard in the country, (Kolek) is certainly in the conversation,” McDermott said on Thursday. “And I know they have the best passing center in the country in Ighodaro. So when you put those two together it’s a problem because they just don’t make mistakes with the basketball. Whatever defensive scheme you try to come up with to try to slow down their flow and their pace, they have two of the best in the country that are their decision-makers.”
Schematically, they force a turnover on 22.8% of opponent’s possessions, 12th most in D1. They rank first in the Big East and sixth in the country in turnover margin (+5.6 per game). They’ve forced 10 or more turnovers in each of the 13 outings this season and converted those miscues into an average of 19.7 points per game.
Inside, Ighodaro is an elite shot-blocker and erases a lot of opportunities at the rim. At the other spots, they’re interchangeable — meaning they can switch on screens and not get caught in a bad matchup, and pressure the ball everywhere. For a Creighton team prone to careless passes, this presents a problem.
“Their anticipation skills are off the charts and they have they have a lot of length,” McDermott said. “You’ve just got to be careful. Passes on the move and passes that are 50/50 passes, against Marquette they’re probably going the other way, so we have to be really disciplined with our decisions.”
Another problem? They guard the perimeter really well, allowing opponents to shoot just 31.2% from three (95th best), despite allowing opponents to take a lot of them — 43% of opponents’ total shots have been threes, 325th in D1 (well above the average of 37.4%). With Ighodaro at the rim and length and athleticism everywhere, they push you out to the perimeter and dare you to beat them with long contested jump shots. Again, for a CU team predicated on making threes, that’s an issue.
On the other side of the floor, Marquette does not take midrange jumpers at all — they have only nine attempts in 13 games — precisely the shots CU’s defense is built to force you into. While the Jays are able to force those mid-range shots against most opponents because of Kalkbrenner waiting at the rim and perimeter defenders schooled on running shooters off the line, Marquette simply took the ball right at the rim a year ago, running pick-and-rolls between Ighodaro and their guards repeatedly.
“It’s tricky because they take less mid-range shots — they’ll take some in the lane, some floaters maybe, but in terms of two-point shots outside the paint, they are as hard a team in the country to get them to take those shots, and that’s what our defense is designed to do,” McDermott said. “So our ability to try to protect the rim a little bit better than we did when we played them last year is going to be critical. We also have to understand personnel, like who can you not give a three-point shot to and who are the guys that maybe you could live with?”
Most had this one marked down as a loss coming into the season, but now a ‘L’ means an 0-2 start. If the Jays can’t escape Milwaukee with an upset win, how they lose will be the barometer many use to form their opinion on the Jays heading into January — a flat performance where they turn the ball over, miss a ton of threes, and get beat off the dribble defensively will not inspire confidence that this is a team that can hang with the top of the conference.
On the flip side, a win would begin to change that narrative. And with four games where they’re heavily favored to follow (Georgetown and DePaul on the road, Providence and St. John’s at home), they can get some momentum and confidence rolling before heading to UConn on January 17.
No game on December 30 — certainly not for a team ranked in the Top 25, and certainly not a road game where you’re the underdog — is a must-win. But this is a pivotal game, for sure.
- Tip: 1:00pm
- Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- TV: CBS (KMTV-3 in Omaha)
- Announcers: John Sadak and Bill Raftery
- In Omaha: Cox channel 3 (SD), 1003 (HD); DirecTV channel 3; Dish Network channel 3
- Outside Omaha: Your local CBS affiliate, either over-the-air with an antenna or on cable/satellite/streaming
- Streaming on CBS’ website
- Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcer: John Bishop
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
Marquette has won 19 straight Big East home games, one away from the second-longest streak in league history, set by Marquette, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. MU’s last league loss at Fiserv Forum came on Jan. 1, 2022, a 75-69 double-overtime setback against Creighton.
Oso Ighodaro entered the Dec. 9 game vs. Notre Dame shooting 50.0 percent from the charity stripe in 2023-24 and 58.0 percent from the line for his career. Over the course of the last four outings, however, Ighodaro has knocked down 25-of-31 (80.6 percent) from the line, including finishing 7-of-8 at Providence.
Forward David Joplin had 20 points and nine rebounds in their win over Georgetown last weekend. He was 6-of-11 from the floor and 4-of-7 from three-point range, with three offensive boards.
Saturday marks the fourth time in 11 seasons as league rivals that Creighton and Marquette will meet within on New Years’ weekend. Creighton’s won the first three battles (67-49 on 12/31/2013, 92-75 on 1/1/2020, and 75-69 in 2OT on 1/1/2022.)
Creighton will attempt to avoid its first 0-2 start in Big East play since 2014-15. In 2022-23, they lost the opener at Marquette and then won 11 of their next 14 including eight straight. In 2020-21, they also lost the league opener to Marquette but then ripped off six straight wins.
Creighton and Marquette are two of just seven schools nationally that are ranked in both the men’s and women’s basketball Associated Press polls this week. Joining the Bluejays and Golden Eagles in that elite company are Baylor, UConn, Gonzaga, North Carolina and Texas.
Marquette leads by a 58-39 margin, but Creighton leads the series 11-10 since the teams became Big East rivals, and is 6-4 in Milwaukee. Creighton is 4-1 all-time inside Fiserv Forum, while Marquette is 71-13 against all other teams.
Creighton has won seven of the past 10 meetings. Sixteen of the last 19 meetings have been decided by eight points or less.
CU hasn’t played on December 30 since 2006 — a 77-74 win over Missouri State in the MVC opener. Seniors Nate Funk and Anthony Tolliver combined for 13 points during a game-ending 18-4 run, leading the Bluejays to a 77-74 win in front of a national television audience on ESPN2.
The Bottom Line:
KenPom predicts a three-point Marquette win, and ESPN’s BPI gives the Golden Eagles 57.8% odds of victory. Vegas favors Marquette by four. Most Jays fans, myself included, had this one as a loss before the season. Nothing that has happened so far this season has changed my mind on that.
#10 Marquette 77, #22 Creighton 72
