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Pregame Primer: Creighton Looks to Keep Their Winning Streak Alive, Set to Battle Providence

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Creighton has won nine of ten, and seven in a row, to insert themselves back into the hunt for the Big East regular season title. And over an eight-day period starting on Saturday, they will play the three teams in that hunt with them — Marquette, UConn, and St. John’s. But for those games to be as meaningful as possible, the Jays will need to avoid stubbing their toe against Providence tonight. Easier said than done: they’ve won less often at the AMP than any other venue in the Big East.

The Friars enter Wednesday’s game at 11-11 overall and 5-6 in the Big East. Four of the six losses were by a single possession — they’ve lost in the final seconds *twice* to first-place St. John’s, by two at Villanova, and by three at UConn. Add in a two-point loss to Oklahoma at the Battle 4 Atlantis, and a picture of a team that can’t quite finish starts to emerge.

But there’s a litany of issues combining to make the Friars a .500 team entering February. They commit too many turnovers. They’re wildly inconsistent. They can’t settle on a lineup or a rotation, using 11 different starting 5’s in 22 games. And they’re still trying to find a go-to scorer in the absence of Bryce Hopkins, who’s out for the year with a knee injury.

All of those issues were on display Saturday against the Red Storm. The Friars committed 20 turnovers, leading to 22 St. John’s points. They had three shot clock violations in the first half alone. They started the game 13-of-41 from the field and fell behind by 19 points.

But then miraculously, they made 11-of-15 shots over the final eight minutes, including six three-pointers in the final six minutes, to tie the game at 66. They were one defensive stop away from forcing overtime, but couldn’t get it as Kadary Richmond hit the game-winner.

Unlike Ed Cooley’s Providence teams, the Friars have taken significantly more three-pointers. Cooley’s last three PC teams took around 33% of their shots from three (33.6% in 2021, 38.0% in 2022, 31.9% in 2023). Last year under Kim English they took 44.3% of their shots from the perimeter, and this year even more — 45.9% of their attempts have been threes.

They have four players shooting 34% or better from outside with high usage. Jayden Pierre leads the team in scoring at 12.8 points and 2.9 assists per game. Last year he shot 36% from three and made 52 of them all season. This year he’s already made 46, and is hitting them at a 34.3% clip. He’s also become more efficient inside the arc, improving his two-point shooting from 45% last year to 53.6% this year.

Pierre scored 35 points with 15 assists in three games against the Jays a year ago — 10 points each in the two regular season meetings (3-of-8 on twos, 4-of-10 on threes) and 15 in the Big East Tourney. In that NYC matchup, he was 5-of-10 inside the arc and 1-of-6 outside with seven assists and zero turnovers. And he scored seven straight points in the decisive stretch of the game, leading the Friars to a 78-73 win. But in Omaha a month ago, he scored seven on 2-of-9 shooting (and 1-of-4 from three).

Bensley Joseph is their other player averaging in double figures at 11.9 points per game. He’s made 45-of-114 (39.5%) from three this year, but like Pierre, was shut down by the Jays in Omaha. He scored two points on 1-of-10 shooting, including 0-of-3 from outside. To hold the Friars’ top two perimeter threats to nine points on 3-of-19 shooting goes a long way toward explaining the Jays’ 20 point win.

The problem is that it’s not just Pierre and Joseph to worry about on the perimeter anymore. Georgia transfer Jabri Abdur-Rahim, a 35.6% career three-point shooter, struggled to adapt early in the season. But over the last four games, he’s made 15-of-22 from three — including an absurd 8-of-11 from three against St. John’s on Saturday. It’s just the third time ever a Friar had eight or more threes in a Big East game and the first time since Donta Wade made 10 threes at Notre Dame on Feb. 23, 2000.

In the previous game against Seton Hall, he hit two corner threes late in the game, the second one breaking a 55-55 tie. A one-leg fadeaway jumper then gave them a 60-55 lead. He hit a huge three late in the win over Georgetown to seal that win, too.

Third-leading scorer Wesley Cardet, who averages 9.8 points per game and scored 10 in Omaha, is a game-time decision for tonight’s game with a knee injury. He’s missed two of the last four games and been ineffective when he has played; if there’s a silver lining, it’s that his absence has created playing time for Abdur-Rahim, who’s thrived.

44 of Providence’s 64 points came in the paint in the first meeting. 6’10” freshman center Oswin Erhunmwunse was 4-of-5 with eight points; 6’6” freshman Ryan Mela was 4-of-6 on two-pointers with 10 points; and 6’4” junior Corey Floyd was 5-of-10 inside the arc with 10 points. Here’s the shot chart from that game, showing some success at the rim — and a whole lot of misses the further away they shot.

  • Tip: 7:30pm
    • Venue: Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, R.I.
  • TV: FS1
    • Announcers: Dave Sims and Donny Marshall
    • In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
    • Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
    • Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
    • Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
    • Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
  • Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM

Oswin Erhunmwunse ranks third in the Big East in blocked shots (1.8) and second in league play (2.8); with five blocks vs. Seton Hall on 1/11 it just the sixth time ever a Friar freshman
had five or more blocks in a game and just the second time in a Big East game. He also ranks third in the league in offensive rebounds (2.36) and third in league play (2.64).

44 of the Friars’ 66 points came from the bench on Saturday against St. John’s. Abdur-Rahim had 27 of them, and 7’0” sophomore center Christ Essandoko added nine on 4-of-5 shooting.

Creighton and Providence have played an overtime game each of the past two seasons, with both of those games taking place in Friartown. Creighton has played an overtime game against the same opponent three straight seasons just once previously, beating Southern Illinois on Jan. 14, 2009 (73-72), Feb. 23, 2010 (83-78) and Jan. 7, 2011 (72-66), though one of those were in Omaha and the other two in Carbondale. Creighton has played five overtime games all-time against Providence. The only teams its played more overtime games against have been Drake (9 times), Wichita State (7) and Southern Illinois (6).

Creighton has won each of its last four Big East road games, the first time it’s done that since Jan. 27 – Feb. 9, 2021, when it defeated Seton Hall, DePaul, Marquette and Georgetown on the road during the COVID-19 season with minimal crowds. Creighton last won five straight conference road games when it won its five road games in a row from Dec. 31, 2011 – Jan. 25, 2012 as a member of the Missouri Valley Conference.

Creighton is 16-3 in its last 19 regular-season Big East games, the best mark in the league in that time. St. John’s and UConn are both 15-4 over that span.

Providence leads the all-time series 21-16, including a 12-4 mark in Rhode Island. Since the Jays joined PC in the Big East in 2013, the Friars have won 15-of-27 contests at all sites.

They’ve won just three times at Providence since joining the league; the only other Big East team they’ve struggled that much against on the road is UConn, though they’ve only played the Huskies five times (winning three). This will be the Jays’ 12th trip to Providence since becoming a Big East member.

On February 5, 2011, the Jays beat the Evansville Purple Aces 75-69 in Omaha. It was a struggle, though. From the Morning After:

The score was 23-15 Evansville as the under-eight media timeout approached, with the visitors making ten of their first 14 attempts from the floor.

With 8:37 to play in the half, his team struggling to find a rhythm and his fans struggling for anything to cheer about, Gregory Echenique swatted a Colt Ryan jump shot into the second row behind the Creighton bench, at once signaling that the paint was no longer open for business to the Purple Aces and that the Jays intended to play.

Coming out of the media timeout that followed, the Jays rattled off an 8-0 run to tie the game in the span of just over two minutes. Or rather, to be more specific, Kenny Lawson rattled off an 8-0 run; the MVC’s much-maligned Preseason Player of the Year began the run by scrapping for a rebound under the rim, missing the tip in, fighting for his own rebound, then making a layup. He then made three pointers on each of the next two possessions, and both the Jays and the home crowd were alive.

Moments later, Lawson picked up his second foul; he joined Doug McDermott on the bench, both players having picked up a pair of first half fouls. Evansville immediately took the lead back, and at the final media timeout of the half, it was 32-28 Aces. They would not score again in the first stanza, as the Jays, minus Lawson and McDermott, ran off a 9-0 run to close the half. Improbably, impossibly, given the way the game had begun, it was 37-32 Creighton at the intermission.

…

Would another halftime lead be blown? When Colt Ryan made a jumper with 17:24 to play cutting the lead to 42-38, the prevailing feeling in the arena — seriously, it was palpable — was one of “Here we go again.” The Purple Aces would not score another point for over six minutes, as the Bluejays scored 13 unanswered points. The crowd appreciated the effort, as Jays players went diving all over the court for loose balls, played stifling defense, got looks for each other on offense, and put the game out of reach. When Evansville called timeout to try and stop the avalanche, it was 55-38 Creighton; since the Aces had that 23-15 lead prior to Kenny Lawson’s three-possession takeover, it had been a — seriously, this is no misprint — 40-15 run for the Jays. That’s perhaps the best sustained stretch of hoops they’ve had all season long, and it came against a pretty good opponent in a huge game.

The Bottom Line:

Creighton is favored by 3.5 in Vegas, and has 66.2% odds of winning according to ESPN’s BPI. KenPom predicts a three-point win with 61% odds of winning.

I think it’ll be much closer than it was in Omaha a month ago, but the Jays will pull it off late.

Creighton 72, Providence 65

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