On the list of opponents you don’t want to play, a good team coming off an absolute body-blow of a loss at home ranks near the bottom. And yet that’s exactly what Creighton is walking into on Saturday — with the added wrinkle of one of the toughest home court advantages in the league on top of it. Xavier lost fairly convincingly, 83-71, to Seton Hall on Wednesday night to fall to 1-2 in the league. The Musketeers were on the wrong side of a 21-5 run in the first half, rallied to make it a game, and then made multiple self-inflicted mistakes down the stretch as the Pirates pulled away. And it led to coach Travis Steele saying this:
Though they’re still 12-4 overall, X has no marquee win to speak of and tumbled from 38 to 52 in the updated NET ranking. They’re on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tourney if the season ended today. They’ve been wildly inconsistent, often within the same game. They lost to Villanova largely because they surrendered a 17-0 run; they lost to Seton Hall because of the aforementioned 21-5 run; they beat St. John’s in spite of an 11-0 run. And that has a lot of Musketeer fans feeling angsty.
They have company in the Creighton Bluejays. CU led most of the night at home against Villanova, and seemed on the verge of blowing the game open more than once in the first half, only to lose in the final moments. Like Xavier, that loss dropped the Jays to 1-2 in the Big East and sends them — and their fans — into Saturday’s game in a bad mood. The Bluejays have been in a mostly unparalleled shooting slump, making four or fewer 3-pointers in two consecutive games for the first time in the Greg McDermott Era.
The Jays’ big picture outlook is better, at this point, with a NET of 32 thanks to a tougher non-conference slate and several marquee wins. But neither of these proud programs wants to drop to 1-3 in the league. And so if it’s not quite a must-win, it’s a really-need-to-win for both sides.
Xavier is full of names you’ll recognize from past seasons’ battles with the Jays, including four starters with lots of experience against CU — seniors Quentin Goodin and Tyrique Jones, and juniors Naji Marshall and Paul Scruggs. They’re surrounded, mostly, by transfers (Jason Carter from Ohio and Bryce Moore from Western Michigan) and freshmen (Zach Freemantle and KyKy Tandy), and the Musketeers have leaned heavily on their big four. That’s even more true after four-star recruit Dahmir Bishop left the program last week and transferred to Saint Joseph’s.
Marshall leads the team in scoring at 16.5 points per game. As always, he’s a handful at 6’7″, 220 pounds because he can put the ball on the floor and drive, he can pull up for jumpers, and he’ll even shoot the three if you give him the opportunity. Seton Hall came up with a solid gameplan to slow him down on Wednesday — they took away his left hand, challenged him at the rim, and held him to just 1-of-5 shooting on two-point shots. But he still had 15 points because he made two 3-pointers and he went 7-of-7 from the line. Marshall is a vet who knows how to score, regardless of what you scheme for him. Villanova took away his jumper, so he went 9-of-15 at the rim and scored 19. St. John’s stopped him at the rim and he made three 3’s and five free throws to get 20 points.
In three meetings a year ago, Marshall was all over the place against CU. He had his worst game of the year in Omaha, scoring six points with six turnovers and making just 2-of-6 from the floor. He put up big numbers in Cincinnati, scoring 23 points on 22 shots (4-of-11 on twos, 5-of-11 on threes) with six boards and five assists — and hitting a pair of threes down the stretch that sent the game to overtime. And in NYC, he was somewhere in between, scoring 11 on 4-of-12 shooting with eight boards.
Scruggs leads the team in three-pointers (25) and steals (21), and averages 14.7 points per game. He’s their best jump shooter by far, and takes roughly two-thirds of his shots from 15 feet and out — converting 55.3% of his two-point jumpers, and 36.8% of his threes. A 6’4″ guard with a 6’11” wingspan, Scruggs is a key piece of their perimeter defense, as well. He struggled mightily against the Jays a year ago, shooting a combined 1-for-11 from three-point range and scoring 17 total points in three games. And he turned it over twice in the final minute of their loss to Seton Hall on Wednesday, keying an 8-0 Pirate run that iced the game.
Jones, at 13.6 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, is attempting to become the first Xavier player to average a double-double since David West in 2002-03. He’s a beast in the paint, and is a legitimate problem for CU because at 6’9″, 240 pounds he has size and skill they simply cannot match straight-up. That’s compounded by the fact that the senior is in the midst of perhaps his best sustained stretch of play of an outstanding career. He has grabbed an offensive rebound on 17.9% of chances, which is the fifth best rate in the entire country. He’s grabbed a defensive board 25.8% of the time, which ranks among the top 50. He’s scored in double figures in all but two games, and in Big East play he’s 16-for-29 from the field and 11-for-16 from the line. And he’s attempted the second most free throws in the league behind only Markus Howard. There’s a lot to be worried about with Tyrique Jones, but his ability to draw fouls is perhaps the most worrisome against a Bluejay team that is already thin on depth.
And Goodin averages 7.6 points and 4.1 assists per game, setting up their offense with crisp passing and by creating space for their big men with his outside shooting. Xavier blog Banners On The Parkway ran a feature earlier this week explaining his importance to their offense, essentially positing that when he’s a threat to score from three, it leaves more room inside for Jones and Marshall to operate.
In a game between two teams who perhaps aren’t desperate, but are urgent for a win, it could come down to which team is able to assert their strength more than their opponent. Will Xavier’s rebounding and ability to draw fouls in the paint prove too much for CU to overcome? Or will Creighton’s pace, quickness and ability to score from three-point range turn this into a game Xavier can’t keep up in? Xavier can certainly turn this into a knock-down, drag-out fight and if they do, they likely win. Xavier is also prone to turnovers, coughing it up on a whopping 20.1% of their possessions — one out of every five Musketeer possessions ends in a turnover. That means Creighton will have chances to run in transition and score before XU can set their defense. And Xavier is a pretty bad three-point shooting team, making just 30.5% collectively. CU can absolutely turn this into a higher-possession shootout, and if they do, they likely win.
Tip: 1:00pm
Venue: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
- TV: Network FOX
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Nick Bahe
- Sideline Reporter: Andy Katz
- In Omaha: Cox channel 10 (SD), 1010 (HD);
- CenturyLink Prism channel 42 (SD), 1042 (HD); DirecTV 42; Dish Network 42 or 5203
- Outside Omaha: Your local FOX affiliate
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- For Cord Cutters
- Freshman KyKy Tandy made 4-of-6 threes in their win over St. John’s, and is 6-for-13 in Big East play. He’s played a bigger and bigger role as he’s adjusted to college and is expected to give them a scoring lift off the bench as conference play rolls along.
- Jason Carter, in his first year at Xavier after transferring from Ohio, scored 14 points against Seton Hall thanks to making 6-of-10 shots and a pair of threes. The 6’8″, 230-pound junior can stretch the defense by dragging opposing bigs outside to guard him, and is also not afraid to bang in the paint.
- Freshman Zach Freemantle was named Big East Conference Freshman of the Week after averaging 11.0 points and 3.0 rebounds in 16.5 minutes per game in XU’s games vs. Western Carolina on Dec. 18 and at TCU on Dec. 22. Freemantle shot 58.3 percent (7-of-12) from the field and 87.5 percent (7-of-8) from the free throw line in those two wins.
- Senior Bryce Moore, a grad transfer who has logged 17.8 minutes per game, made his first XU start in the win over Western Carolina on Dec. 18, contributing seven rebounds, four assists and a career-high six steals. He’s made at least one 3-pointer in 10 of the first 16 games.
- Creighton made just 3-of-14 three-pointers in Tuesday’s game vs. Villanova. The three trifectas were the least by a Creighton team since making only one at Georgetown on Jan. 25, 2017, and the 14 three-point tries were CU’s fewest since also launching 14 long-range shots vs. Alabama on March 15, 2016. Combined with four trifectas at Butler on Jan. 4th, Creighton has now made four or fewer three-pointers in consecutive games for the first time since January of 2010.
- Greg McDermott owns 499 career victories as a head coach entering Saturday’s tilt at Xavier. He’s won 50 or more games at four different schools, and owns a .618 career winning percentage in 26 seasons and 807 games as a head coach. Only 26 active Division I men’s coaches, and only 53 active men’s coaches across all levels, own 500 or more career victories.
- Mitch Ballock has made a three-pointer in each of CU’s last 15 games. The only Big East player with a longer active streak is Villanova’s Collin Gillespie (17).
Xavier owns a 17-13 lead in the series with Creighton, including a 9-6 advantage in Cincinnati. After becoming the first visiting team to ever beat Xavier three times at Cintas Center in 2017, Creighton can become the second team (joining Villanova) with four victories over the Musketeers at Cintas Center with a triumph on Saturday.
Since both teams officially joined the Big East in the summer of 2013, 12 of the 15 meetings (including the Big East Tournament) between Creighton and Xavier have been decided by eight points or less, with two games going to overtime.
Creighton is 2-1 this season in games decided by eight points or less.
Creighton has had a ton of success on January 11th over the years, winning each of its last eight games on 1/11. The Bluejays have also won six straight true road games played on January 11th, with four of those by three points or less.
The most recent one came in 2017, when Creighton knocked off #12 Butler 75-64. But the most recent road game on January 11 was the “Showcase in Springfield”, as WBR’s Creighton Otter dubbed it — Doug McDermott’s 39-point barrage at Missouri State in 2013 where he made 14 consecutive shots, outscored the entire Bears team in the second half, and illustrated the dictionary definition of “single handedly beating an opponent” in real time. From his recap:
“Don’t poke the bear. In essence, that’s what Action 3 News television sports director Chase Williams and broadcaster extraordinaire (and WBR contributor) Nick Bahe warned no one in particular Friday night. With the early minutes of Creighton’s road game at Missouri State proving a bit chippy and very physical, the gentlemen bringing the TV broadcast back to the living rooms and sports bars in Omaha proved prophetic. Be careful how physical you get with Doug McDermott, Bears; most of the time he excels in the face of such confrontation.
And so began what for our current purposes we’ll call The Showcase in Springfield.
McDermott scored 39 points in 33 minutes, setting the JQH Arena record and single-handedly pulling the Jays away from a game Bears team in the second half. McDermott missed just one shot in the second half, going 10-11 from the field, 3-3 from three-point range, and 5-5 from the free throw line. His 28 points in the second half were more than the entire Missouri State team combined (25). He also doubled up his own teammates during the second stanza, 28 to 14.”
In the WBR Highlight Reel afterward, I cracked a smile reading the note alongside of it.
“39 points, 15-19 field goals, 14 consecutive made field goals, (McDermott) did it all in this one. A reader of ours made a comment to me recently that he watched a highlight reel with his granddaughter and she noted that Creighton never misses. Usually, that’s because of the way they’re edited; in this case, Doug actually NEVER MISSES. Enjoy.”
The Bottom Line:
Creighton’s had a tough time scoring in two straight games. I don’t think it will stretch to three — Xavier’s defense in the halfcourt is one of the best in the country, but their tendency to turn it over will allow Creighton to score before that vaunted halfcorut defense can get set. And when one of the best transition offenses in the country gets loose, good luck.
Bluejays 73, Musketeers 68