The 4/5 game in this year’s Big East Tournament features the league’s two hottest teams over the last month — four seed Xavier has won six of their last seven games, and five seed Creighton has won five straight. It’s a cruel twist of fate that these two teams meet in the quarterfinals; one of them will win and move closer to a possible NCAA Tournament berth, and the other will be headed to the NIT.
It’s essentially a toss-up, with KenPom favoring Creighton by three and Vegas favoring the Jays by 2.5, and the rare conference tourney game where the two previous meetings don’t tell us a heckuva lot about the third matchup.
When they met in Omaha on February 3, Xavier was reeling and losers of four straight. Then their plane got re-routed to Grand Island and they had to bus it to Omaha, arriving less than 12 hours before gametime; they appeared a step slow defensively, unable to stop dribble penetration and were consistently bad on their rotations, and were blown out 76-54.
By the time they played again two weeks later, it was Creighton who was reeling — the third game of a three-game road trip where they lost all three games after leading in the final minutes — and the Bluejays were without starting point guard Marcus Zegarowski. Up 59-57 with 25 seconds left, Mitch Ballock’s inbounds pass was intercepted and turned into an uncontested layup to tie the game. They’d eventually lose in OT.
That loss was unquestionably the low point of the season, and re-reading the Morning After, it’s striking how justifiably negative the vibes were — it really did feel like the season ended that night in Cincinnati, that there was no way to salvage what remained of the season after that loss. Obviously, things have turned around and it’s almost guaranteed that Creighton’s season will continue after this weekend in NYC, either in the NCAA Tournament or in the NIT. They’re a different team today than they were then — much improved defensively, much more confident down the stretch of close games.
Over the past 10 games, Creighton’s opponent points per possession is 0.968, which would rank inside the Top 40 nationally if it was extrapolated out to the entire season. Their defensive turnover rate is even better, and would rank in the top 25 for the full season. And they’ve kept opponents off the line, with an opponent free throw rate ranking among the top 10 over the last 10 games. CU has created extra possessions through steals and turnovers, winning games with defense when their shots aren’t falling. Their defensive improvement has been real, and it’s been spectacular.
Xavier can say the same thing. But rather than creating extra possessions through turnovers, they’ve done it with stifling half court defense — their effective field goal percentage over the last seven games would be good enough to rank in the Top 25 if they maintained it over the full season — and then grabbing a rebound almost every time an opponent misses.
Naji Marshall has led the team in scoring throughout the season, and averages 14.9 points for the season. He averaged far more than that during their five-game winning streak, though — 22.6 points on 46.0% shooting — and his emergence was the catalyst for the Musketeers’ season-saving run. He suffered an ankle injury last week and missed their final regular season game; while he returned to practice on Wednesday, can he be as effective as he was in February in a high-tempo game? I’d expect Creighton to run him through ball screens as often as they can, make him defend Martin Krampelj on pick-and-rolls, and just generally make him RUN. Test that ankle early and often, and make him prove he can do the things defensively that he did before the injury.
Of bigger concern is probably 6-foot-9, 235-pound Tyrique Jones — he’s the Musketeer’s enforcer and someone the Jays struggled to find an answer for in the two previous meetings, even if his overall numbers aren’t huge. He’s made nearly 70% of his shots during their winning streak, and ranks second in all of Division 1 in individual offensive rebound percentage — grabbing 17.3% of possible offensive boards.
Xavier likes to mix things up defensively, so Creighton will need to be ready to combat varying ball screen coverages, as well as both a zone look and a man-to-man. And they’ve been terrific defending in the half court. The more often that Creighton can turn them over, and take shots in transition when they have advantageous numbers — before X gets settled in and organized — the better off they’ll be. Xavier’s turnover rate in conference games ranks ninth (19.8% of possessions end in a turnover) so it’s probably more of a question of IF Creighton can score in transition than whether they’ll get the opportunity to do so. Xavier is really bad at ball control. Creighton is really good (lately) at coming up with steals and turnovers. That’s something CU can exploit.
Rebounding will be critical. Xavier has grabbed an offensive rebound on a staggering 31% of their missed shots, and have taken advantage of defensive mismatches after those boards to score second-chance points. Jones and Zach Hankins, in particular, have been elite offensive rebounders, but the entire team does a great job of being in position for rebounds and then fighting for them. Creighton has to match that intensity, and box out on every missed shot, every possession — because this game is likely to be decided late, and by only a basket or two, so giving up easy second-chance points could very well be curtains.
It should be a very close, very competitive game. But you’d expect nothing less from March at MSG, right?
- Tip: 1:30pm (approx.)
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, NYCNY
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Justin Kutcher and Jim Jackson; Evan Daniels will serve as the sideline reporter
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite Radio:
- Sirius 133/XM 201 (also on SiriusXM app., channel 964.)
- For Cord Cutters:
- Xavier has five players averaging in double figures in scoring.
- Naji Marshall leads the team in scoring (12th in the Big East at 14.9 ppg.) and is second in rebounding (ninth in the Big East at 6.7 rpg.) and assists (10th in Big East at 3.3 apg.)
- Paul Scruggs, who earned a spot on the Big East Conference Weekly Honor Roll on March 10 after his game-high 22-point effort vs. St. John’s on Saturday, is XU’s second-leading scorer at 12.2 ppg. (20th in the Big East)
- Quentin Goodin, who leads the team in assists (third in Big East at 4.7 apg.), has 429 career assists and is ninth on XU’s all-time career assist leader list. He has 127 assists this season in 27 games, his third straight 100+ assist season
- Tyrique Jones leads XU in rebounding (third in the Big East at 7.8 rpg.) and offensive rebounding (first in Big East and 17th in the nation at 3.4 rpg.)
- Graduate transfer Zach Hankins leads the Big East Conference in field goal percentage (.673) and is second in the Big East in blocks (1.6 bpg.).
- Xavier’s win over St. John’s on Saturday clinched its 37th straight season at .500 or better in regular season conference play (MCC, Atlantic 10 and Big East). No other school in NCAA Division I has an active streak of more than 32 years. Murray State, who is second on the active list, has clinched its 32nd straight season at .500 or better in league play, while Kansas, Kentucky and Gonzaga have also clinched extensions of their streaks. KU and UK are now at 30, while GU is at 28.
- Xavier has reached at least the semifinals in five previous BIG EAST Tournament appearances, and is 7-5 in BIG EAST Championship play, including 1-1 last year.
- The No. 5 seed is 2-5 at the Big East Tournament since the league’s 2013-14 reconfiguration, and 17-15 since 2004. The only No. 5 seed to win a Big East Tournament was Syracuse in 1992. Creighton is 2-4 all-time in four previous appearances as a fifth seed at a conference tournament, going 1-1 in 1988 and 2011, and 0-1 in 1985 and 1996 (all in the MVC). Thirteen of the last 15 teams to be the fifth seed in the Big East Tournament would play in the NCAA Tournament, with three of those teams making the Sweet 16 and one advancing to the Final Four (Syracuse in 2013, featuring Marcus Zegarowski’s brother, Michael Carter-Williams.)
- Marcus Zegarowski dished a season-high 10 assists in last Saturday’s win over DePaul. It was the most assists by any Bluejay since Maurice Watson Jr. had 14 helpers at Providence on Jan. 7, 2017, as well as the most by any Creighton freshman since Josh Dotzler had 10 dimes at Drake on Feb. 4, 2006. Creighton has not had a player with double-figure assists in consecutive games since Maurice Watson Jr. on Dec. 9 and 17, 2016.
- Martin Krampelj had six double-doubles in Big East play, tying him for the league lead in conference action with DePaul’s Paul Reed as well as Xavier’s Tyrique Jones in that category, one more than Providence’s Alpha Diallo and Georgetown’s Jessie Govan.
Xavier owns a 16-13 lead in the series with Creighton, including this year’s season split. Creighton is 2-0 against Xavier in the Big East Tournament, including a 75-72 semifinal win on March 10, 2017 on Marcus Foster’s game-winning three-pointer with 6.6 seconds left. Thursday is the five-year anniversary of their first Big East Tournament meeting, which was won by Creighton 86-78.
Creighton hasn’t played on March 14 very often; that date usually fell during the quiet week in between the end of the MVC Tournament and the start of the NCAAs/NIT. There was the heartbreaking 55-54 loss to Kansas in the 1974 Midwest Regional (the equivalent of the Sweet 16 back in the pre-expansion days of the NCAA Tourney).
There was their 64-56 win in the NCAA Tournament over #15 New Mexico State in 1991, their first tourney win since that ’74 tourney referenced above. The win came thanks to complete domination on the glass — they outrebounded the Aggies by 10 in the second half, and Bob Harstad and Chad Gallagher combined for 30 (THIRTY!) rebounds. Their guards also handled New Mexico State’s vaunted full-court press and quickness with little trouble, turning it over just 13 times. As Gallagher described to the media, “Coach Barone told us what we needed to do to win. For Bob and I, it was to rebound. For Duan and Latrell, it was to handle their press. Everybody on the team handled what our goals were really well.”
The win set up a matchup with Seton Hall, a game the Jays would lose to a Pirates team that was en route to the Elite 8.
The most recent game on March 14? A 86-78 win in the 2014 Big East Semifinals over none other than Xavier.
The Bottom Line:
Creighton and Xavier are both playing their best basketball entering the Big East Tournament, peaking at the exact right time. But after Thursday, one of them will move on, and one will go home.
My prediction: Creighton wins a tight one, and sets up a Friday night showdown with Villanova where a win could very well clinch an at-large berth to the big dance.
Bluejays 74, Musketeers 70