Two years ago, Creighton was upset at home by Nebraska and then immediately headed to Las Vegas without one of their top players. In 2022 it was Ryan Kalkbrenner, out with mono, and the Jays lost to both BYU and Arizona State. In 2024 it’s Steven Ashworth, who’s out with a badly sprained ankle. The timetable for his return is up in the air, but he’s not expected back in the lineup before the Jays return to Omaha at the earliest.
So that leaves them without their starting point guard and top assist man as they head into a tough stretch of games against big, physical opponents. Not ideal. Especially after a loss where Kalkbrenner was erased by a big, physical team — and the Jays proved unable to counter.
Against Nebraska, Kalkbrenner had his nation-leading streak of 62 straight game with eight or more points snapped, and his four points were his fewest since scoring four on Christmas Day 2022 against DePaul — his second game back after missing time due to mono. That game is also the last time he took fewer than five shots in a game, as he attempted just three shots.
The last time he took fewer than three? Against Ohio in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, when he was a freshman backing up Christian Bishop and playing around 10 minutes a game. That’s also the last time he didn’t make a shot in a game.
If teams are going to continue to front him and try to deny entry passes, and double team him when he gets the ball, Creighton is going to have to find creative ways to get him involved instead of just accepting that the defense is taking him away. Because it’s not clear that they can count on shooting teams out of that defensive scheme — especially without Ashworth, who has 17 of their 47 made threes this year.
Through five games, the Jays are making 30.7% of their threes, which if it holds would be Creighton’s lowest mark since the introduction of the shot clock in 1985. The previous low? A tie between the 2021-22 and 1993-94 Jays who both made 30.8% for the season. The former advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament because of a plethora of other ways to score, and a solid defense. The latter had neither of those traits, and marked an unceremonious end to the Rick Johnson Era.
Luckily, they have an immense weapon in the paint — if they can find a way to get him involved even when defenses are keyed on preventing that from happening. WBR’s Matt DeMarinis went back through the Jays’ first stretch of games and charted possessions when Kalkbrenner touches the ball inside the free throw line, and discussed the ridiculousness of those numbers on the latest “Bluejay Beat” podcast.
- UTRGV – 48 points on 28 possessions (scoring on 23 of 28 possessions)
- HCU – 22 points on 13 possessions (scoring on 10)
- FDU – 24 points on 13 possessions (scoring on 11)
- KC – 16 points on 12 possessions (scoring on 8)
On 66 possessions, CU scored on 52. That’s a 78.8% success rate, or 1.67 points per possession (110 total points)
Figuring out how to make him an integral weapon is imperative because the blueprint is out there now that Nebraska exposed it — and starting with San Diego State, the Jays’ upcoming opponents are even better equipped to execute it than the Huskers were.
The Aztecs come in at 2-1 after losing 80-67 to #3 Gonzaga. It’s only three games, so the sample size is low, but given their reputation it feels safe to say they’re once again trending as one of the nation’s best defensive squads. According to KenPom, the Aztecs are 2nd nationally in block percentage, 12th in 2-point percentage defense, 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 38th in effective field goal percentage defense.
They boast length and athleticism at multiple positions, as the Aztecs typically do, and they apply pressure out to the perimeter on every possession.
7’0” freshman Magoon Gwath has blocked 12 total shots so far, despite playing just 18.1 minutes per game. Against Gonzaga, he had five swats and changed at least that many more. He has a 7’4” wingspan and despite being just three games into his collegiate career, he’s already prolific — he ranks No. 1 in the nation in blocks per game and is No. 2 in KenPom’s block percentage (rejecting an absurd 24.0% of shot attempts). He’s comfortable enough handling the ball and quick enough to slide down to the ‘4’, allowing San Diego State to play a giant lineup at times.
Another freshman, Pharoah Compton, might be even better. Compton is 6’8” and 245 pounds, and boasts a 7’5” wingspan. He’s the preseason Mountain West Freshman of the Year, and the first Top 100 recruit to sign with SDSU since 2005. He’s still finding his role and has come off the bench so far, but has already shown the ability to be an elite finisher at the rim.
6’10” senior Jared Coleman-Jones starts in the middle, where he stretches defenses both with his shooting and passing. Over his last 13 games dating back to last year, he’s averaging 12.8 pts, 7.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Coleman-Jones hit 19-of-43 three pointers (44.2%) last year and was the only player 6’10” or taller to shoot at least 40% from distance in a min. 43 attempts.
San Diego State’s lineup also include four players that average in double figures: Nick Boyd (14.7 ppg.), BJ Davis (14.0 ppg.), Wayne McKinney III (10.7 ppg.) and Miles Byrd (10.0 ppg.;, 6.5 rpg.).
Boyd, a 6’3” senior, scored 23 points against Gonzaga and has made 62.5% of his shots the last two games (10-of-16) including 4-of-7 on threes. He’s a career 43.1% shooter (257-of-596) and a dangerous scorer from all three levels.
The 6’2” Davis made his first collegiate start in the season opener this year, and is one of two Aztecs to have scored 10 or more points in all three games. He’s been an incredibly efficient shooter, especially inside the arc — he’s made 7-of-10 two pointers through three games while also shooting 42% from three-point range.
McKinney stands just 6’0” but is a quick, shifty ball handler. He’s made 40% or better of his shots in all three seasons of his career so far, but is off to a slow start this year making just 4-of-14 inside the arc through three games.
Miles Byrd, a 6’7” stretch ‘3’, scored 20 points with eight rebounds, five steals and four blocks in the season opener versus UC-San Diego. But he injured his ankle in practice before their second game against Occidental, and sat out; when he returned against Gonzaga he lacked the explosiveness that makes him so tough, going scoreless with five rebounds and zero blocks.
And when preseason All-Mountain West guard Reese Waters returns in January from injury, the Aztecs will be even more formidable. He’s their leading returning scorer, rebounder and assists man, but suffered a stress fracture in his right foot during preseason workouts.
- Tip: 1:00pm
- Venue: MGM Grand Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV: TBS
- Announcers: JB Long, Candace Parker and Lauren Jbara
- In Omaha: Cox channel 27/1027
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 247, Dish Network channel 139
- Streaming on MAX
- Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcer: John Bishop
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 139 or 202 as well as on the SiriusXM App
Guard Taj Degourville was named the Mountain West Freshman of the Week for the week ending November 17. In their 100-49 victory over Occidental last Tuesday, the Las Vegas native had a stat line that included 14 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals without a turnover in just over 20 minutes of game action.
Brian Dutcher is in his eighth season as San Diego State’s head coach and his 26th season on the Aztec sidelines. In his seven-plus seasons as head coach, he has led the Aztecs to five conference titles, seven Mountain West championship game appearances, a 179-58 overall record and 92-32 mark in league games, has been named the national coach of the year, twice the Mountain West Conference Coach of the Year and led this team to back-to-back Sweet 16s as well as a run to the 2023 NCAA national championship game.
Creighton annually ranks among the national leaders in fewest fouls, which made it so unique last Friday when Nebraska attempted 30 free throws. It was just the 16th time in 490 games under Greg McDermott that CU allowed 30+ free throws, and first time it had happened in regulation since a 2017 loss to Seton Hall. It was just the third time in 244 home games under McDermott an opponent had attempted 30 or more free throws, and first time since North Texas attempted 32 shots from the charity stripe in 2015.
Not counting last year’s road game against UNLV that was technically played in Henderson, Nevada (at the Dollar Loan Center, since Thomas & Mack Center was booked), this is Creighton’s ninth trip ever to Las Vegas, and fifth since 2012. The Bluejays are 9-5 all-time in Las Vegas, and 5-3 under Greg McDermott. Creighton’s only previous games inside MGM Grand Arena came in November of 2015 at the Men Who Speak Up Main Event, where the Bluejays beat Rutgers (85-75) and UMass (97-76) to win the title. That UMass team was coached by current Bluejay assistant coach Derek Kellogg.
Among the Jays with Las Vegas ties are redshirt freshmen Shane Thomas and Sterling Knox, who are both from Las Vegas and attended Durango High School as well as Red Rock Academy. Pop Isaacs is from Las Vegas and attended Coronado High School. And Isaac Traudt’s sister, Tia Traudt, has signed to play volleyball at UNLV beginning in the fall of 2025.
Creighton is 5-4 all-time against San Diego State, but the Aztecs have won 3-of-4 battles on a neutral floor. Each of the last four match-ups have taken place on a neutral court, including a 2023 Elite Eight battle in Louisville that was decided on a free throw with 1.2 seconds left.
The 2023 game came one year after Creighton erased a nine-point deficit in the final 2:30 of regulation to rally past the Aztecs in overtime in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. SDSU also won an 83-52 game in Las Vegas in 2019, but that game took place at The Orleans.
Greg McDermott is 2-4 all-time against San Diego State, and 2-3 as Creighton head coach, as his first game as a Division I head coach came while with Northern Iowa and was against SDSU.
On November 26, 2016, the Jays defeated Longwood 82-52 in the most recent game played on this date. They outrebounded Longwood 47-29, forced 19 turnovers (12 of them on steals), outscored them 49-28 in the paint and 25-7 on points off turnovers, and 15-4 on fastbreak points. In the first half alone, Creighton shot 9-14 from three-point range and 22-32 overall, scoring a then-CenturyLink Center record 62 points.
Mo Watson finished with a double-double (10 points, 11 assists) thanks to a first half that was almost unfair, as he sliced and diced through a hapless Longwood defense to the tune of 10 points and 8 assists against just one turnover. Two other Bluejays were one rebound short of joining him in the double-double club. Toby Hegner had 10 points with 9 boards — four of them offensive, while Khyri Thomas had 16 points with 9 boards.
The Bottom Line:
Vegas oddsmakers favor Creighton by 3.5, and KenPom predicts a three-point CU win. ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton 72.9% odds of victory.
It’ll be tough, but if they can establish Kalkbrenner at the rim, Creighton should win a close one.
Creighton 68, San Diego State 63