[dropcap]Saturday[/dropcap] night, Creighton travels down I-80 to renew the annual series with Nebraska. It’s the first road game of the season for the Jays, which always brings with it a unique set of challenges that you can’t really gameplan for as a coaching staff — and those are magnified for a team that leans so heavily on freshmen and sophomores. How will your players respond to a hostile crowd? When adversity strikes and their home fans aren’t there to provide a spark, who steps up to lead? If the home teams gets on a roll and the arena gets rocking, can they get a tough shot to quiet things down?
Nebraska enters the game with a 7-2 record and a #24 ranking, but has question marks of their own. They’re coming off of a brutal loss on the road at Minnesota where they blew a double-digit lead in the second half. They’re riding a seven-game losing streak to Creighton (and their coach is 0-14 against Greg McDermott), which is clearly chafing at them more and more with each season that passes without a win.
Normally all of those factors might be secondary, more fodder for writers like me than for the players and coaches. But these teams are fairly equal in terms of talent, so those intangible question marks could very likely play a role in deciding the outcome. How you feel about that probably depends on which of these teams you root for.
The Cornhuskers return three starters from a team that finished 22-11 last year, tied for fourth in the Big Ten, and lost in the first round of the NIT after being left out of the Big Dance. Their starting five is among the most talented in the Big Ten, but there’s very little quality depth. All five starters average over 26 minutes a game and have logged a combined 72.7% of the team’s total minutes played; their top three play nearly 31 minutes each. Their five primary reserves play between nine and 13 minutes a game each, but are the very definition of role players — they’ve taken just 17.5% of the team’s shots, contributed 18.3% of their points, and grabbed 33% of their rebounds.
There’s something to be said for riding your best horses and not relying on role players to make meaningful contributions, and plenty of teams have won big without being very deep. The danger with that style of coaching is you’re more susceptible to foul trouble, or to injuries, and if you allow an opponent who wants to play as fast as possible — like, say, Creighton — to do that, your horses might be worn out before the final horn sounds.
The Cornhuskers’ leading scorer is All-Big Ten guard James Palmer, Jr., who averages 17.4 points a game. Palmer is a terrific player, but he’s not without weaknesses. In the first nine games of his senior campaign, he’s made just 38% of his shots (46-120) and 13-of-56 from three-point range (23.2%). That latter number is a problem, because he’s taken the most shots on the team by a fair amount, over half of those shots have been three-pointers, and he’s made less than a quarter of them. Take away two games where he shot well (3-of-6 against Illinois, and 2-of-5 against Clemson) and he’s been downright horrible — 8-for-45 against everyone else, which is 17.7%.
That’s basically in line with his career numbers (albeit a bit lower), which makes it a bit of a mystery why he continues to shoot so many of them. Especially because he’s SO GOOD when he puts his head down and drives — he’s an excellent shooter in the paint, and he gets to the line a ton where he makes 80% of his free throws. In fact, a deeper dive shows his overall shooting percentage is weighed down by his atrocious three-point shooting; he’s 38% from the floor, but 51.6% when you chart just two-point shots (33-of-64). Roughly one-third of his shot attempts have been within four feet of the rim; he’s a 70% shooter from that distance (29-of-41). But for whatever reason, once he gets further out from there, he’s been bad. Just under one-fifth of his shots have been mid-range jumpers, and he’s made — no joke — 17.4% of them (4-of-23). And as we noted above, he’s 13-of-56 from the perimeter.
Palmer is a physical 6’6″, 200 pound player who’s difficult to stop if he decides to attack the basket, which is part of why he draws as many fouls as he does. But if you can cut off his dribble and force him to shoot a jumper, regardless of the distance, the film and the scouting report both indicate you’re pretty likely to be happy with the result. And if you can do that, and not foul? He’s going to have a hard time scoring. That’s easier said than done, obviously.
Isaac Copeland, now in his second year in Lincoln after transferring from Georgetown, is second on the team with 15.3 points per game. The 6’9″, 225-pound senior might very well be the key player in this game for Nebraska; he’s arguably been their best player through nine games, and is the toughest matchup for the Jays defensively. He had a big game a year ago, logging a double-double with 20 points and 11 rebounds, including five offensive boards, with two blocks and two steals. Part of what makes him difficult to defend is his versatility; You have to respect his shot from anywhere on the floor, and his shot attempts are pretty equally distributed. 28% of his shots have come at or near the rim; he’s an 80% shooter from that range. About 40% of his shot attempts have been mid-range jumpers, and he’s made 57% of them. The rest of his shots have been three-pointers, and he’s made 35% of them.
Inside the arc, his shots are split about 60/40 between attempts he creates for himself either off of rebounds/putbacks or iso plays, and shots where a teammate gets credited with an assist. Outside the arc, every single one of his shots has been off an assist. CU’s big men have to be aware of what Copeland is up to at all times.
6’0″ guard Glynn Watson is their third starter averaging in double digits at 14.6 points per game, and as you’d expect with a senior point guard, is a really good table setter. He has an excellent 3:1 assist to turnover ratio (33 to 11), and has been their most deadly three-point shooter so far this year (22-of-47, 46%). As with Palmer, over half of his shots have come from behind the perimeter; he’s capable of being an effective slasher, but doesn’t draw fouls the way Palmer does, and isn’t as good of a finisher.
And he’s yet to play a full game against the Bluejays, fouling out in all three previous meetings. He scored zero points in 13 minutes as a freshman and fouled out. He had nine points in 29 minutes as a sophomore, and also fouled out. And last year he had eight points (though he was 0-for-5 from three point range) and fouled out after 30 minutes. It’s an odd stat for a player who’s hovered around 2.5-to-3.0 fouls per 40 minutes over his career, but an amusing one for Bluejay fans.
Isaiah Roby, a 6’8″, 230-pound junior, is an interesting player and a tough matchup for the Jays. At times he looks like the best player on the floor, an All-Big Ten talent capable of carrying the team. Other times, he’s nowhere close to that. He doesn’t score the way Palmer does. He’s not the physical specimen Copeland is. But he’s begun showing up high on NBA prospect lists because his overall range of skills is so versatile — he averaged 8.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, two blocks and 1.7 assists per game a year ago, and is doing roughly the same thing this year.
Their fifth starter is Thomas Allen, a 6’1″ sophomore. Allen is a bit of a sneaky performer because of all the attention his four fellow starters get from opposing defenses; he’s 24-of-55 from the floor (43%), 9-of-27 from three (33%), and averages around two rebounds, two steals, and two assists a game.
Those five are a formidable group. There’s not much of note behind them, so watch for how the game is officiated. If it’s called tightly with a lot of fouls, that favors the deeper Bluejays. If it’s called looser, that favors the bigger, more physical Huskers who would be able to push out on shooters and cut off driving lanes more effectively in that kind of game.
- Tip: 5:00pm
- Venue: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
- TV: BTN
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Robbie Hummel
- In Omaha: Cox channel 80 (SD), 1080 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 650 (SD), 1650 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: BTN Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 610, Dish Network channel 410
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Josh Dotzler
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite Radio: SiriusXM channel 195 (Internet channel 957)
- Nebraska broadcast with announcers Kent Pavelka and Matt Davison
- For Cord Cutters:
- In Nebraska’s 85-78 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday, the Gophers outscored Nebraska 29-11 over the game’s final 10 minutes. During that stretch, Nebraska was just 3-of-12 from the field, while Minnesota was 9-of-16. Nebraska shot 45.9 percent on the game, but the Huskers hit only 38 percent of their shots in the second half. Isaac Copeland had 17 points and Isaiah Roby added 15 points, but both players fouled out down the stretch. Glynn Watson Jr. had 14 points and James Palmer Jr. rounded out Nebraska’s double-figure scorers with 11 points, but he was held scoreless in the second half while missing all seven of his shots.
- Nebraska entered Wednesday’s game at Minnesota ranked among the top two in the Big Ten in scoring defense (2), field goal percentage defense (2), scoring margin (1), 3-point percentage defense (1), blocked shots (2), steals (2) and turnover margin (1).
- Nebraska’s 7-1 start prior to losing to Minnesota was their best start since 2003, and their #24 ranking in the AP poll is the first time in four years they’ve appeared in the poll.
- As Creighton head coach, Greg McDermott owns a 7-1 record against Nebraska. He is the only Creighton men’s basketball coach to win seven straight games over the Cornhuskers, and those seven victories trail only Dana Altman (who was 10-7 against NU) among Bluejay head coaches all-time. McDermott’s seven-game win streak over Nebraska (all by double-digits) are one shy of his longest win streak against any other team since moving to the Creighton sideline, as he’s won eight straight games over DePaul (seven by double-figures). That’s the sort of company NU keeps when it comes to Creighton — the perennial doormat of the Big East, DePaul.
- Creighton has led at halftime in 15 of the past 19 regular-season meetings (including 11 of the last 13 meetings) against Nebraska, with seven double-digit leads at intermission in that span. The four times that Creighton trailed it half, it came back to win the game anyway. Nebraska has not led at halftime and beaten Creighton in the regular-season since Jan. 8, 1997. Also of note, Creighton has held Nebraska to 30 first half points or less in 14 of the last 15 regular-season meetings at all sites.
- Creighton Men’s Basketball has won seven in a row over the Huskers, its longest win streak ever over NU. Creighton Baseball has won three in a row over the Huskers for the first time since a five-game streak from 1991-93. And last Sunday, Creighton Women’s Basketball won its third straight game over Nebraska, also a program best.
Creighton has won 16 of the past 19 regular-season match-ups to take a 26-25 lead in the all-time series. The Bluejays have won seven straight in the series, all by 10 or more points.
CU is 8-16 all-time in Lincoln against the Huskers, but are undefeated at Pinnacle Bank Arena. And Greg McDermott is 13-3 all-time vs. Nebraska (7-1 as Creighton head coach) and 14-0 against Tim Miles all-time. Miles is 0-6 against Creighton.
Last year, Mitch Ballock was forced into service when Khyri Thomas picked up two quick fouls, and did a great job defensively on Glynn Watson. Keep that in mind as the Jays prepare to take on the Huskers without Khyri tomorrow…oh, and this:
In the Jays’ 75-65 win, Ronnie Harrell (12 points, 11 rebounds) and Martin Krampelj (10 points, 11 rebounds) both had double-doubles. And Mitch Ballock scored 13 points with six rebounds and four assists, becoming just the fifth Creighton true freshman to score in double figures against Nebraska since 1981 — and the first since Terrell Taylor. But Marcus Foster’s second half was something else. 17 points on 6-10 shooting, eight of them coming in the decisive final four minutes. Both teams hit big shots down the stretch, but Foster hit more of them, and that was a big reason — perhaps the biggest reason — Creighton won.
On December 8, 2013, Creighton defeated Nebraska 82-67. From our recap the next day:
“At the 18:36 mark of the first half, Ethan Wragge nailed a three to put the Jays up 3-0, and that would be the closest the Huskers would be the rest of the night. In fact, over the first eight minutes of action, spanning two media timeouts and two team timeouts, the Huskers managed just one field goal, throwing up brick after brick after brick. Meanwhile, Creighton was as efficient as ever, and at the end of those first eight minutes, they had a 22-3 lead thanks to a trio of three pointers from Doug McDermott and a dunk from Grant Gibbs, who took advantage of the defensive focus on the perimeter to drive a wide-open lane for the slam.
Rather than ease off the gas, Creighton kept rolling, while Nebraska kept doing masonry work. The lead swelled to 38-8 with seven minutes to play, a score that looks even more improbable Monday morning than it did at the time. With 6:47 to go, Nebraska’s Leslee Smith rattled home a jumper to give them ten points — as a team, mind you — and the CU student section serenaded them with chants of “Double-Digits! Double-Digits!” Holding a 51-25 lead at the break, the only drama remaining was how many points Creighton would win by, not whether or not they’d win.”
Someone once said — I forget who, it’s not important — that you know when you’re dancing with the devil, but that’s none of their business and they don’t operate that way.
Someone else — a much wiser someone, whose name also escapes me at the moment — once countered that bit of “wisdom” by noting that life would be so much better if we actually knew when we were dancing with the devil.
David Lee Roth, fronting the Van Halen brothers 40 years ago, sang about just that sort of conundrum.
The Bottom Line:
Creighton fans have reason to worry about this one — the Jays are a young team in their first true road game, which will happen in a hostile environment. Nebraska’s favored, and rightfully so. And this is the first time in the Coach Mac era that Darian “D-Rock” DeVries isn’t preparing the scouting report for the Huskers; he proved to be a master at scouting for, and preparing the team, to beat the Red Menace. On the other hand, they’ve had a full week to improve themselves and to prepare while Nebraska has played two conference games.
For Nebraska, the worry is simply this — if they don’t beat CU this year, when will they? The Huskers are a senior-led group full of expectations, and the Jays are a young team not expected to really break through until next year. If this group can’t end the losing streak to Creighton, it’s going to be a while before they do. That’s a lot of pressure. Tim Miles knows it. Their fans know it. And if things start going sideways, you know damn well they’ll feel it.
It’s not a must-win for Nebraska. It is very much a must-win for Tim Miles. For that reason, although KenPom gives the edge to Nebraska by five, I respectfully disagree.
Creighton 82, Nebraska 73
