Creighton’s first round opponent in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos, have become a popular upset pick from prognosticators across the college basketball landscape in the days since Selection Sunday. It’s eerily reminiscent of 2017 when Rhode Island was a fashionable upset choice over the Bluejays…and though Jays fans spent that week telling anyone who would listen that the experts were wrong, we all remember how that ended up.
It’s worth noting that the prognosticators with real skin in the game — Las Vegas sports books — also favored URI in 2017. This year, the sports books do not agree with the experts who have fallen in love with UCSB. Creighton opened as 10 point favorites, and has settled in at 6.5 point favorites as the week has progressed.
So there’s a disconnect: almost everyone who writes about college basketball is picking a UCSB upset, while the people who stand to lose money if UCSB wins see it the other way. What gives? Part of the equation is the first group is in the entertainment business, while the second group is in the business of being correct.
The other part of the equation is the havoc COVID wreaked on scheduling. Without holiday tournaments, and with non-conference games limited, it’s almost impossible to know how good teams like UCSB are — and how they’ll handle the massive upgrade in opponent quality. 10 of their 24 games were Q4 opponents, 18 of the 24 were Q3/Q4, and zero were against Q1 opponents. In their six Q2 games — a road game at Loyola Marymount (99 NET), two road games at UC Irvine (104 NET), two road games at UC Riverside (109 NET) and a road game at Pepperdine (110 NET) — the Gauchos were just 2-4. You’ll notice all four of their losses on the season came against that group. Their average margin of loss in those four games was 11 points.
You certainly can’t hold that against UCSB. Creighton was in the same boat many times during their Missouri Valley days, and knows as well as anyone that the best you can do as a mid-major is to beat the teams on your schedule and try not to worry about things you can’t control. And while the scheduling realities of a Big West team in a normal year are brutal, in a pandemic year it left them with all six of their toughest games on the road.
So how good is UCSB? No one has any idea. The Gauchos haven’t played a team ranked as high as Creighton in KenPom, NET, or RPI since 2017, under a different coaching staff with a completely different roster. They haven’t beaten a team in the Top 75 of any of those metrics since a 73-71 win over San Francisco (67 at the time) in 2018.
So without the unbiased reliability of experience or advanced statistical data, you’re left to the (much maligned) eye test — and UCSB looks every bit the part of the typical March Madness Cinderella. That’s what analysts have latched onto. The Gauchos have two Top 100 recruits, an elite point guard surrounded by good shooters and a big front line, plus a deep, veteran bench. They have length that allows them to be disruptive defensively. You can see why experts who have watched this team believe in them. And when you combine that with what appears to be a Creighton team in disarray — an off-the-court scandal followed by a boat-racing in their most recent game tend to have that effect — it makes sense why UCSB is the sexy choice in this game among professional pundits.
JaQuori McLaughlin, a 6’4″ senior, is their starting point guard and leading all-around player. The Big West Player of the Year and an Honorable Mention AP All-American, McLaughlin leads the Gauchos in points (16.2 per game), assists (5.2 per game), three-point shooting percentage (40-of-99, 40.4%), and free throw shooting percentage (96-of-114, 84.3%). His 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio is excellent, especially for a player who handles the ball as often as he does.
A transfer from Oregon State, McLaughlin is an elite distributor that runs the Gauchos’ inside-out offense well not only because of his passing ability, but because he’s an elite shooter from all three levels and he can create his own shot off the dribble. He’s also a really good perimeter defender. It’s no wonder he’s starting to move up NBA draft boards.
His effective field goal percentage of 56.2% is good on its own, but what’s really impressive is that his numbers are consistent across the board. He takes 27.7% of his shot attempts at or near the rim; 1/3 of them come off an assist from a teammate and 2/3 are shots he creates himself, and he makes 63.2% of them. 36.1% of his shot attempts are two-point jumpers, and he makes those 46.5% of the time. The other 36.1% of his shots are three-pointers, and he connects on those 40.4% of the time. Those are just absurd numbers.
Joining McLaughlin in the starting backcourt are Devearl Ramsey, a 6’0″ senior who averages 7.6 points, 3.6 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game, and 6’5″ senior Brandon Cyrus. Ramsey is the perfect compliment to McLaughlin’s highlight-reel-style — he does all the little things that tend to go unnoticed. He’s their best on-ball defender, typically drawing the defensive assignment against an opponent’s top perimeter threat, and averages nearly two steals per game to lead the Gauchos with 44 of them this year.
As for Cyrus, his name might be familiar to Bluejay fans as he began his career at DePaul; in four games against Creighton in 2017 and 2018, Cyrus averaged 7.2 points and 4.7 rebounds.
6’3″ sophomore Ajare Sanni, the Big West Sixth Man of the Year, averages 11.2 points per game on 41.7% shooting. He’s their top three-point threat off the ball, shooting 39.8% (41-of-103) — and likes to drain threes from the logo just like the Jays’ Mitch Ballock.
But he suffered a gruesome looking injury to his ankle in the Big West title game, and his status for Saturday is TBD. If he can’t go, the Gauchos lose a key piece of their rotation and a player who can stretch opposing defenses like no one else on the roster.
Another backcourt bench player who plays a big role is Josh Pierre-Louis, a 6’4″ sophomore who went from averaging 6.4 points per game during the season to scoring 24 on 6-of-6 shooting inside the arc and 3-of-4 outside in the Big West Quarterfinals against Long Beach State. If you’re looking for the “unsung hero” that Creighton’s defense gets burned by — because that never happens, right? — Pierre-Louis is a good bet.
Their front line is pretty atypical for a Big West squad. Led by Amadou Sow, a 6’9″, 235-pound junior who averages 13.7 points and 7.6 rebounds, the Gauchos have a lot of size to throw at opponents. Sow is their second-leading scorer, and was superb down the stretch. In the Big West Tourney, he averaged 18.6 points and 9.0 rebounds over three games while shooting 18-for-30 from the field (60.0%) and 20-of-22 from the line (90.9%). He spends almost all of his time inside the arc, with just 5.8% of his shot attempts coming on three-pointers. Sow was just about unstoppable at the rim, making 72.7% of his shots there this year (88-of-121). But we mention the time spent inside the arc because especially defensively, Creighton is likely to try to pull him away from the basket with big-to-guard handoffs and ball screens designed to put him in uncomfortable situations. They’ve done it time and again the last two years against opposing bigs, and Sow’s lateral defense — or lack thereof — is an intriguing subplot.
Starting alongside Sow has typically been 6’10”, 220 pound junior Miles Norris. Originally signed by Dana Altman at Oregon, Norris averaged 9.6 points and 4.5 rebounds in his first year at UCSB. He’s their best rim protector and shot blocker, but compared to other players his size he’s below average in both categories, as he had just 23 blocks in 26 games this year. But he does stretch defenses on offense with his ability to shoot both two-point jumpers (40.0%) and three-pointers (38.5%).
That lack of rim protection stands out, as the Gauchos’ bigs blocked just 7.0% of shot attempts at the rim — eight teams in the Big East were better than that, including five at 10%+. One was UConn at 14.1%. Their closest comp in that stat in the Big East would be Butler, hardly known as a team opponents worry about blocking their shots. For comparison, Creighton blocked 9.4% of opponent’s shots this year, and as Jays fans know they’re not exactly known as great rim protectors either. And yet they’re still quite a bit better at it than UCSB is.
That lack of rim protection effects the game in other ways, too. UCSB’s opponents shoot 53.6% on shots at the rim (and 58.8% on unblocked shots), which tells you that not only do they not block a ton of shots, they’re also not altering the shots they don’t block. Their big men also don’t grab a ton of offensive rebounds. Their OR% is 28.2%, ranking 163rd in Division 1, a number that would be middle of the pack in the Big East. Only 9.4% of their shot attempts at the rim were the result of an offensive rebound.
Contrasting that, their length on the perimeter is a little concerning. UCSB’s steal rate of 11.1% is good, and they only allow an assist on 44.4% of opponent’s possessions (32nd best in D1). That means they do a good job of getting into passing lanes and either disrupting the pass, intercepting it, or making opponents alter plans. Their perimeter defense rates highly, as they allow opponents to shoot just 33.4% from three-point range and just 26.4% of their opponent’s total points come via the three (only 52 teams in D1 give up fewer). As you’d expect, then, 55.2% of opponent’s points have been two-pointers — only 37 teams in D1 give up more. This is one area national pundits have pointed to as a reason for picking UCSB in an upset, albeit without using statistical data to back up the assertion. Creighton has shot better on two-point shots this year, 56.3%, than all but 11 teams in D1. They’ve had 10.8% of their shots at the rim blocked, which isn’t great, but against a UCSB team who doesn’t block many shots this next number is interesting: Creighton’s unblocked field goal percentage is 65.0% at the rim.
If Creighton has to be more reliant on scoring inside in this game, the 2020-21 Bluejays are better equipped to do that than other teams of the “Let it Fly” Era.
Tempo wise, UCSB grinds games to a halt; their adjusted tempo of 66.1 possessions per game ranks 295th in D1. Their average possession length is 18.0 seconds, ranking 315th. They do that the way most slow tempo teams do — by drawing fouls. 20% of their points on the year have come on free throws.
Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 56.7% in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and 54.1% on shots classified as coming in transition. That percentage drops to the low-to-mid 40s when they can stop the fastbreak and make you run offense in the half court. The Jays must run every chance they get and take the first good shot — which also just so happens to be Creighton’s MO.
Remember what we said about UCSB not being a great offensive rebounding team? The Jays should have lots of chances to run if they can clear the glass. Making the most of those opportunities could very well be the key to the game.
The other key? Getting off to a good start — or at a minimum, not getting off to a disastrous start. In 2018 against Kansas State, they fell behind 10-2 and had just 12 points after 12 minutes. In 2017 against Rhode Island, they trailed 11-4 and had only eight points after 11 minutes. In 2014 against Baylor, the Bears blasted out to a 26-9 lead and CU had only nine points after 11 minutes.
The Omaha World-Herald’s Dirk Chatelain pointed out this week that in the first 10 minutes of Creighton’s last four NCAA losses, the equivalent of a 40 minute game, they have a combined 38 points.
Simply put, they’ve repeatedly dug themselves an early hole that proved too deep to get out of, no matter how well they played once they settled in. If history repeats itself early in this game, CU is likely to be staring at another depressing postmortem following another depressing March loss.
- Tip: Approx. 2:30pm Central
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (“Unity” court on the south end of the facility)
- TV: TruTV
- Announcers: Lisa Byington, Steve Smith and Lauren Shehadi
- In Omaha: Cox channel 203, CenturyLink Prism channel 1164/1165
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 246, Dish Network channel 242
- Streaming at http://ncaa.com/marchmadnesslive
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- No streaming or webcast allowed per NCAA regulations
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Jason Benetti and Robbie Hummel
- Westwood One affiliates: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations
- Streaming at http://ncaa.com/marchmadnesslive
- Satellite radio: Westwood One feed on Sirius channel 135 and XM channel 202
- For Cord Cutters:
- TruTV is available on all major streaming services including Hulu, Sling, AT&T TV, YouTube TV, and Fubo
- Wikipedia says “A gaucho is a skilled horseman, reputed to be brave and unruly. The gaucho is a symbol in Argentina, Uruguay, Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil, Aysén Region and Magallanes Region in Southern Chile. Gauchos became greatly admired and renowned in legends, folklore and literature and became an important part of their regional cultural tradition. Beginning late in the 19th century, after the heyday of the gauchos, they were celebrated by South American writers. The gaucho in some respects resembled members of other nineteenth century rural, horse-based cultures such as the North American cowboy.”
- UCSB earned the program’s sixth NCAA Division I Tournament berth and its first since 2011. It is the third automatic bid that the Gauchos have received, having also won the league tournament in 2011, 2010 and 2002. Santa Barbara received at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 1990, and picked up their only tourney win in ’90 against Houston.
- The Gauchos are a perfect 19-0 when they outrebound their opponents and a very pedestrian 3-4 when they are outrebounded by their opponent. The three times the team has won despite being outrebounded this season came vs. Loyola Marymount (46-27 on Dec. 7), vs. Cal State Fullerton (33-32 on Jan. 2) and in overtime at UC Davis (36-31 on Jan. 30). UCSB outrebounded all three opponents at the Big West Tournament, including a 34-30 margin over the league’s top rebounding team, UC Irvine, in the championship game.
- This is Creighton’s second NCAA Tournament trip to a domed facility, as CU’s 2000 squad played at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis. They lost 72-69 to Auburn in that game. Their most recent game inside a domed facility came on Jan. 11, 2006, when Creighton beat Northern Iowa — coached by Greg McDermott — 55-52 at the UNI-Dome.
- Creighton went 5-4 against teams that made the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The Jays were 3-0 against UConn, 1-1 vs. Villanova, 1-2 vs. Georgetown and 0-1 against Kansas. All five Creighton starers averaged in double-figures during those games, a group led by Marcus Zegarowski (14.4 ppg., 3.9 apg.). Mitch Ballock made 27 three-pointers in those nine games, and Christian Bishop hauled in a team-leading 7.0 rebounds per game.
- Creighton is making its 22nd NCAA Tournament appearance, and 13th in the last 23 years. The Bluejays are 12-22 all-time in NCAA action, including a 9-12 record in its first game. Creighton is a No. 5 seed for the first time. It is Creighton’s second-best seed slot since the NCAA began seeding all the teams in 1979, trailing only CU’s No. 3 seed in 2014. This is also the sixth straight NCAA berth that will see the Bluejays as a better seed and in its “home whites” for its initial NCAA Tournament game.
UCSB and Creighton have played twice in their respective histories. On Feb. 9, 1975, the Gauchos defeated the Bluejays 72-61 in Omaha. The following season, on Jan. 2, 1976, the Bluejays returned the favor with an 83-81 win in Santa Barbara.
Creighton has never won on March 20, and in fact, the only two games contested on this date rank among the worst losses in program history: Central Michigan’s 79-73 upset victory in the 2003 NCAA Tournament, and Miami’s controversial 53-52 win in the 2006 NIT.
Here’s hoping the next time Creighton plays on March 20, this section of the Primer has a better memory to look back on so that those two games can continue to wither and die in the annals of Bluejay history where they belong.
The Bottom Line:
The “us against the world”, “no one believes in us” cliches are just that — cliches — but holy smokes, almost no one who covers college basketball nationally thinks Creighton will win this game. In this case, those aren’t just motivational cries from a coach to his team. They’re facts.
But Vegas thinks the Jays win. And so do I.
Creighton 73, UCSB 64