Two teams coming off of road losses over the weekend are set to battle on Tuesday, as #16 Villanova continues their road trip in Omaha against the Bluejays. The Wildcats have three losses on the year, all away from home against Q1 opponents Ohio State, Baylor, and Marquette. They’ve also got an impressive home win over Kansas and another Q1 win at a neutral site over Mississippi State. Their 10-3 record has been well-earned.
They’re currently 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency — that’s very good, but for a team that has set the bar as high as Villanova has, it’s actually lower than usual. They were fourth in 2015, third in 2016, third in 2017, and first in 2018.
This is ‘Nova, though. Like always, they move the ball really well and take a ton of threes (43.0% of their total points have come via the three, a top ten ranking in the country). On straight shooting percentages, they’re making 35.2% from three, 53.7% inside the arc, and 72.8% from the line. Good, solid numbers, but a bit low by the incredibly high standards Jay Wright has set in recent seasons.
It’s an active roster with seven Top 100 recruits, and the only two players expected to see meaningful minutes who aren’t top-100 guys are Saddiq Bey and Collin Gillespie, the team’s two leading scorers. This roster is loaded with talent, in other words.
Collin Gillespie leads the team in scoring with 14.3 points, assists (4.8) and steals (1.4). He’s the glue for the team, the guy who changes the momentum in games through hustle and hard work. In two solid games versus Creighton a year ago, Gillespie did exactly that — he scored 14 points in Omaha with five assists, three steals and two turnovers, and 13 points in Philly (on 4-of-9 shooting) with six assists and zero turnovers.
6’4″ freshman Justin Moore averages 12.3 points. Depending on whether Jay Wright has opted for a small or a big starting lineup, Moore has split time starting with the much taller Cole Swider (9.0 points and 3.8 assists).
We might see that bigger lineup on Tuesday, because it’s the frontcourt where Villanova will have an advantage. Their main rotation boasts four players 6’7″ or taller: Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Swider.
Saddiq Bey is their second leading scorer at 14.7 points per game, and is also second on the team with 5.7 rebounds. He’s struggled at times with foul trouble this season, ending four of their 13 games with four fouls including Saturday at Marquette — he played a season-low 24 minutes because he was in early foul trouble. He’s been in a shooting slump, too; after scoring in double figures in six straight games including 27 against Penn and 22 against Saint Joseph’s, he had just seven against Kansas (3-of-8 shooting), six against Xavier (2-of-8) and nine against Marquette (4-of-9). He’s capable, as the Jays know full well from a year ago. He had seven points and six rebounds in the win in Omaha, and was tough to stop in Philly — he scored 17 of their 66 points in the rematch, with five rebounds and three steals.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, a freshman from outside KC, nearly averages a double-double, with 11.3 points and 9.2 rebounds. He scored 24 in his collegiate debut against Army, and as competition has stiffened, his numbers have dropped — but he’s still put together a lot of really impressive games. He had nine points and nine rebounds against Kansas, he grabbed 11 boards against Marquette, and 13 points with 12 boards against Penn.
Jermaine Samuels is the fifth to score in double figures at 10.3 points per game. Samuels scored 13 in Omaha a year ago, thanks to making 4-of-6 inside the arc and 5-of-6 from the line. He also had six rebounds, two blocks and a steal in that game. An extremely versatile 6’7″ forward, Samuels is both big enough to overpower smaller players who get rotated onto him, and quick enough to beat bigger players off the dribble. He’s made a ridiculous 67% of his two-point shots this season and can be a handful.
- Tip: 8:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Jeff Levering and Nick Bahe
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Brody Deren
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- For Cord Cutters
- Six players account for 93 percent of Villanova’s scoring and 86 percent of the minutes.
- The Wildcats are near the bottom of the Big East in several key defensive statistical categories, including Field Goal Percentage Defense (10th, .440); 3-Point Field Goal Percentage Defense (ninth, .324); and Scoring Defense (eighth, 67.8 ppg).
- On Saturday, 38 of its 68 attempts from the field at Marquette came from beyond the 3-point arc. They sank nine (.237). Of VU’s 783 field goal attempts thus far in 2019-20, 356 have come from beyond the 3-point arc (.455). Last season .535 of the Wildcats’ field goal attempts came from beyond the arc.
- This will mark the first time CU has played consecutive games against teams ranked in the top-20 since March of 2007, when it faced No. 11 Southern Illinois (in the MVC Tournament Championship) and No. 15 Nevada (in the NCAA Tournament).
- Creighton has won each of its last 15 home games. It’s the team’s eighth double-figure streak in CHI Health Center Omaha history, which opened in 2003. Creighton’s trailed for a total of 4:18 after half in those 15 games. There were two different 30 second segments in overtime vs. Providence, and the first 3:18 of the second half vs. North Florida.
- History suggests any team with league championship aspirations won’t want to be Tuesday’s loser to fall to 1-2 in Big East play. Since the reconfiguration of the league in the summer of 2013, none of the six regular-season conference champions have ever dropped below .500 at any point in league play.
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 13-3, including a 4-2 record in Omaha. Of note, two of the last three meetings have been overtime affairs.
The Wildcats swept the series a year ago, winning 90-78 in Omaha and 66-59 in an OT thriller in Philly.
In VUHoops.com’s preview of this game, they write:
“For a very long time Villanova was perennially crowned as having the best backcourt in the Big East. While Nova’s backcourt is still a key to their success, they no longer wear the crown. Despite National Player of the Year candidates at Marquette and Seton Hall, it’s Creighton that has the most potent backcourt. And that might be true for all of college basketball too.”
Meanwhile, Jay Wright sung the praises of Creighton’s home arena and fans in the Philadelphia Inquirer.
“It’s definitely one of the loudest places in the country and their style of play kind of plays to it,” he said. “When they get out running and hitting threes and throwing their lob dunks, that place gets wild. You’ve got to make sure you can keep it as quiet as you possibly can. It’s always a great challenge but you’ve got to be mentally tough in that building.”
On January 7, 2004, 23rd ranked Creighton rallied from a 12-point deficit in the final seven minutes to win at Illinois State 56-55. ISU tied the game at 55 on a three-pointer by Trey Guidry with 12 seconds left, and Johnny Mathies responded by driving the length of the floor. He wound up with a wide-open look under the basket, and with 1.4 seconds left, was fouled in desperation by ISU’s Vince Greene to prevent a sure-fire game winner. Mathies hit the first free throw, and then missed the second intentionally to rob the Redbirds of as much time as possible. They weren’t able to get off a shot, and the undefeated Jays escaped with the win.
“We knew what we wanted on that last possession,” Creighton Coach Dana Altman told the media after the game. “We were going with Johnny hitting or missing a shot there. We didn’t want to chance a turnover, and Johnny made a heck of a move. It was a good play on Johnny’s part, but you also have to be careful on that because unless you really get cracked, the officials are reluctant to call a foul there. But he went to the rim and got hammered pretty good.”
The 11-0 start was Creighton’s best since the 1942-43 squad began the season 16-0. They’d win one more to move to 12-0, then lose on the road to Greg McDermott’s Northern Iowa Panthers to end their undefeated streak.
The Bottom Line:
This has the feel of a shootout. And at home, Creighton doesn’t lose many shootouts. In fact, in a game of that nature at home, I’ll pick the Jays each and every time. Even against ‘Nova.
Bluejays 87, Wildcats 82