Last Saturday, Creighton and Missouri scrimmaged behind closed doors in one of those ridiculous “only in college basketball” things — it’s supposed to be secret, but it’s generally the worst kept secret you’ve ever heard. Some schools (looking at you Villanova) tape the scrimmage and release long-form highlight reels on social media, making it more of an open book than a secret.
Some schools (looking at you Mizzou) prefer to take the secret part literally. That’s customary under the Tigers’ secretive coach Cuonzo Martin, who also asked that no details be shared from these two teams’ scrimmage in October 2019. No stats, no score, no game recap. Just a group photo at midcourt posted to social media, to appease the “pics or it didn’t happen” corner of the internet.
The same is true of their 2021 scrimmage. But just as in 2019, we found out a whole lot of general ideas about how it went regardless of Martin’s wishes to keep things mysterious. Reportedly, the teams tied 61-61 in a game where Mizzou took a big early lead. One source told us it was 12 points; a second said 14. The Jays took most of the first half to settle in and start to force the tempo. They shot poorly overall from the floor, but found a rhythm as the game wore on — thanks to getting to the rim consistently, crashing the glass, their big men drawing fouls, and hitting just enough jump shots to keep the defense honest. That sounds absolutely nothing like the “Let it Fly” Bluejays we’ve come to know and love, but with the makeup of this roster that’s not surprising. They eventually took the lead, then went back-and-forth with the Tigers the rest of the way. Their leading scorer? Alex O’Connell.
Combine a secret scrimmage where we have only general ideas, not details, with a roster almost completely turned over from a year ago and there’s a whole heckuva lot of mystery entering Saturday’s public exhibition against Upper Iowa.
Speaking of mysteries, the Jays were picked eighth in the Big East preseason poll, but received enough votes (seven) in the preseason coaches poll to rank 35th. Those are two pretty wildly different opinions by peers in the coaching profession. Ken Pomeroy’s advanced metrics seem to split the difference, with the Jays sitting at #53 in his preseason rankings, good for sixth in the Big East with a projected record of 17-12 (and 10-10 in the league). Using a very general rule of thumb that a team in the top 50 is in the NCAA Tournament conversation, that’s a good place for the young Bluejays to be.
Whether or not you agree with how KenPom’s data projects the Bluejays (Bart Torvik’s database pegs the Jays at #72 according to his projections, for example), looking at the bigger picture within his data explains what might be going on in the Big East coaches’ preseason poll (and the national poll for that matter). He has Seton Hall at #50, St. John’s at #51, Creighton at #53, and Butler at #55. In other words, the teams pegged fourth through seventh in the league are so close that the order almost doesn’t matter. The preseason Big East poll reflects those same trends — St. John’s and Seton Hall are flip-flopped from KenPom’s projections, but had nearly the same number of points (73 and 68, respectively). Butler, Providence and Creighton are separated by just 22 points.
You’ve heard the phrase “anyone can beat anyone else on a given night”? Welcome to the middle of the Big East in 2021. Coaches in the Big East seem to think the young Bluejays will struggle and will wind up at the bottom of that group. Coaches around the country think they’re a fringe Top 25 team who will rise to the top of that group. The biggest name in computer metrics thinks they’ll be an up-and-down team with slightly more ups than downs, and finish in the middle of that group.
KenPom’s predictive metrics sound the most likely to me. 17 or 18 wins, in the discussion for an at-large berth in the season’s final week, and going to the NCAA or the NIT depending on how they fare in the Big East Tourney. The journey to get there will be bumpy — there will be ugly losses as a team largely comprised of newcomers figures out who their closers are. And a year from now, we’ll be talking about this group as a contender for the top of the league.
***
The starting five against Mizzou were reportedly freshmen Ryan Nembhard and Arthur Kaluma, grad transfer Ryan Hawkins, and two of the three returnees — O’Connell and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Shereef Mitchell is still working his way back from an injury or he might well have started in Nembhard’s place. Regardless, we’re likely to see a lot of mixing and matching, especially in this exhibition, and the starting five in November will probably not be the same starting five in March.
It’ll be a work in progress, and starting Saturday we won’t have to rely on general details of a secret scrimmage leaked anymore — it’ll happen on the court for all to see. Here’s what I’ll be watching for on Saturday night:
Can freshman sharpshooter John Christofolis drain three’s in a game like he did in last weekend’s shooting contest at Bluejay Fan Fest?
Given that he shot better than 40% from three-point range his final two seasons of high school, it would seem like it’s just a matter of time before Christofolis becomes the next great Bluejay gunslinger.
Is Arthur Kaluma a superstar in waiting?
It sure seemed that way over the summer when he tore up the AfroBasket 2021 tournament for Uganda, averaging 13.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. And he was everywhere at Fan Fest — winning the dunk contest with this slam:
And winning the scrimmage for the Blue Team with this three-pointer on the final play:
Is the hype around Ryan Nembhard for real?
Observers have already compared his slashing ability to former point guard Maurice Watson, and his playmaking ability to Marcus Zegarowski. Those are big shoes to fill. If his performance in the FIBA U19 World Cup this summer is any indication — two double-doubles, averaging 15.1 points, 6.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.4 steals for Team Canada — the next great Bluejay point guard is here.
Can Ryan Hawkins’ DII success translate to the Big East?
Hawkins scored 2,098 points in four years at Northwest Missouri State, was a member of the MIAA’s All-Defensive team as a senior and the Defensive Player of the Year each of the two years prior, and — oh yeah — was the best player on a team that won two national championships. He scored 31 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in the 2021 national title game.
What about Trey Alexander and Mason Miller?
Not much has been said about these two highly-touted freshmen during the first month of practice, but both figure to play key roles at some point this year. At least right now, both Top 75 recruits seem to be stuck behind other players in their position groups.
And finally, is KeyShawn Feazell for real?
The grad transfer from McNeese State was regarded as a role player by many when he signed with the Jays, a Manny Suarez/Kelvin Jones type who could provide 8-10 minutes and five fouls a game off the bench. Instead the 6’9” big man with a 7’1-1/2” wingspan has turned heads inside the Championship Center this fall, leading many to speculate his role may wind up being more significant. His shooting has improved from his McNeese State days after working with CU’s coaches. His monster rebound totals in the Southland Conference appear to be more than just a product of the level of competition he faced. And his defense has been better than advertised. If you’re looking for a wild card, it’s Feazell.
- Tip: 7:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: None
- Streaming on FloSports.comAnnouncers: Simulcast of the Creighton radio broadcast
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Upper Iowa’s roster is the polar opposite of Creighton — they return all five starters and virtually their entire roster (including their top 12 scorers) from last year’s team. In going 10-7 a year ago, Upper Iowa averaged 87.5 points per game but were torched defensively to the tune of 86.1 points per game.
- Guard Jareese Williams led the Peacocks in scoring (17.5 ppg.), rebounding (6.2 ppg.) and three-pointers (60) last season. Not far behind with 16.8 points per game was guard Joe Smoldt, Lucas Duaz (15.2 ppg., 6.1 rpg.) and Jake Hilmer (14.8 ppg., 4.3 apg.).
- The Peacocks are coached by Brooks McKowen, who played for McDermott at Northern Iowa. McKowen was part of three NCAA Tournament teams at UNI, scoring 856 points in his career and still ranks second in school history in assists and fourth in games played. Fun fact: the Panthers won McKowen’s first game against Creighton — the Jays entered that 2004 game 12-0 and ranked #24 — thanks to him shooting 7-of-8 from three-point range. The Panthers then lost the other seven meetings in his career.
- Greg McDermott is 28-0 in fall exhibition games as a Division I head coach, including an 10-0 mark at UNI, a 7-0 record at Iowa State, and a 11-0 mark at Creighton. All but one of his triumphs have been by double-digits.
- Creighton is 52-6 since 1981 in fall exhibition games thanks to 20 straight victories. The only team since 1994 to beat Creighton in an exhibition setting has been Global Sports, which eventually merged and changed their name to EA Sports and had three victories.
- Only five men who played for Creighton last season are back this winter, and none of them averaged more than 15 minutes per game. Creighton’s 18.0 percent of minutes returning ranks third-lowest among all teams nationally, and is the least among all teams from power conferences.
Creighton and Upper Iowa have never met in the regular season, though the Bluejays posted a 113-77 exhibition win over the Peacocks on Nov. 6, 2015.
In the Morning After recap of that one, I wrote this of another point guard’s debut:
“Maurice Watson filled the stat sheet like few Bluejay point guards in recent memory. Despite by his own admission playing a bit sped up in his first action at the CenturyLink Center, he had 19 points, six assists, and three steals, while shooting 7-12 from the floor and 5-6 at the line in 24 minutes. And in the deciding run of the game — a 20-6 run that turned a 28-25 Creighton lead into a 48-31 advantage — he was in some way responsible for 15 of the 20 points, scoring six of his own and assisting on a trio of three pointers from Isaiah Zierden.
He was the best player on the floor, and it wasn’t particularly close.”
That would not be the last time we said that about Watson.
The Bottom Line:
The final score is almost immaterial; CU’s only semi-competitive exhibition game during McDermott’s tenure was his very first one (a 79-67 win over Northern State in 2010). Every other win has come by at least 19 points with seven by 25 or more. Mix and match lineups, see what might work when the regular season begins, get the new players’ feet wet in front of a large CHI Health Center crowd, and stay healthy. Those are the goals, in no particular order.
Jays 95, Upper Iowa 75