Creighton is in the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in three years, and after all of their frustrating trips to the NCAA Tournament over the last 25 years, that’s a sentence that is deeply satisfying to type (and read). Standing between the Jays and the South Regional Final is the 2023 tourney’s Cinderella story — 15-seed Princeton, who upset both 2-seed Arizona and 7-seed Missouri to earn their way here. The Jays are heavy favorites according to Vegas oddsmakers, analytical predictions and national pundits…but then again, so were Arizona and Missouri.
How can CU avoid meeting a similar fate?
One common thread in Princeton’s first two wins in this tourney was controlling the tempo; they played a 67-possession game against Arizona (five possessions slower than Arizona’s adjusted tempo of 72.0, which was 10th fastest in D1), and a 63-possession rock fight against Mizzou (six possessions slower than their average of 68.7). Then they magnified that by seizing extra possessions for themselves through offensive boards and forcing turnovers.
Of the 16 teams seeded 13th or lower to pull a first-round upset in the last 10 NCAA tournaments, eight ranked in the top 10 of at least one of KenPom’s “Four Factors” and all 16 ranked in the top 25 of at least one. For Princeton, rebounds are that outlier.
Princeton was and is objectively worse than both Arizona and Missouri, but they were much, much better than both teams at one specific thing — rebounding the ball — and in a 40-minute game, being significantly better than your opponent at one thing can be the difference. Especially in March.
For the season, the Tigers have secured an astounding 77.3% of their opponent’s missed shots, seventh-best in all of D1. It’s the best percentage of any team in the Sweet 16 — and it’s not because they dominated teams on a schedule that ranked 186th. They were better than that average in both NCAA wins so far, grabbing 80.4% of Arizona’s missed shots and 77.8% of Missouri’s misses. They were really good on the offensive glass in those two games, too, grabbing nine against Arizona that they turned into an 11-2 advantage in second-chance points. They had 16 offensive boards against Missouri and outscored them 19-2 on second-chance points.
And it’s not one or two guys. Princeton has zero players who rank in the top 250 in individual defensive rebound rate; everyone understands angles, block-outs, and fights for rebounds like they’re the most important thing in the world. Because to Princeton’s chances of victory, they are.
Combine that with the fact that Princeton’s style and schemes are different than any team CU has seen this season, and there’s a lot to be concerned about. They don’t run the “Princeton Offense” that legendary coach Pete Carrill made famous, but their offense shares a lot of things in common — namely, that they employ a lot of actions away from the ball like backdoor cuts and flares to get shooters open, rather than ball screens.
“Their spacing is great, their cutting is elite, their ball security is really good and they spread you out with their ability to shoot the basketball,” McDermott said of the Tigers. “I’ve coached against it before. John Thompson Jr when he was at Georgetown ran a version of it. What they’re doing is a little bit different than true Princeton, but they’re a very efficient offensive team.”
6’8″ Tosan Evbuomwan initiates their offense as a point-forward, leading the team (and the Ivy League) in assists at 4.8 per game. The Ivy League Player of the Year a year ago, Evbuomwan averages 14.8 points and 6.3 rebounds a game. He does almost all of his work in the paint — just 26 of his 333 shot attempts were three-pointers this season. And he’s a crafty player with the ball, using a variety of spin moves, reverses, and pivots to get to the rim. Once there, he either scores himself, or passes to one of the Tigers’ guards who’ve gotten open with a backdoor cut or a flare from the Princeton Offense. He’s dangerous. Opposing guards have had trouble switching onto him, and opposing centers have hard trouble staying in front of him. He’s at the top of the scouting report for good reason.
6’9″ center Keeshawn Kellman starts in the middle for the Tigers, but is the odd man out in their small lineup. He played just 15 minutes against Missouri and 14 against Arizona, scoring eight points in each game (on 8-of-9 shooting all in the paint).
When Kellman comes out, it’s usually either 6’1″ Blake Peters or 6’7″ Zach Martini who come in, depending on how small they’re decide to play. Peters went scorched-Earth against Missouri, making 5-of-8 from three point range for 17 points in just 15 minutes.
6’4″ guard Ryan Langbord had 22 points against Missouri, but took 17 shots to get there — he was 4-of-12 from three-point range. It was just the third time he’s scored 20 or more in a game this season. He had eight against Arizona, missing all six 3-pointers he attempted, and was 4-of-11 with 26 total points in two games of the Ivy League tournament. When both Langbord and Peters are feeling confident from outside, as they were against Missouri, Princeton is a more much dangerous team.
6’6″, 210-pound wing Caden Pierce was the Freshman of the year in the Ivy League. 111 of his 200 shot attempts have been three-pointers this year, making just 35 (31.5%); he’s better when he gets the ball in the paint, where he shoots 49-of-89. He’s also a scrappy rebounder. Pierce had 16 rebounds against Missouri — seven of them offensive! — and eight against Arizona. Boxing him out when shots go up will be paramount.
Matt Alloco is their best three-point shooter by percentage (44-of-111, 39.6%), though he’s struggled in the NCAA Tourney so far. He made just 1-of-6 against Missouri and 0-of-3 against Arizona. If there’s a potential breakout player in this game, it’s him.
Defensively, they’re a bit undersized especially in the post. One way they compensate for it is by trapping the opponent’s post player when the ball goes inside. Ryan Kalkbrenner hasn’t dealt with traps very often this year, because he shoots the ball so quickly after he catches it typically. He’ll need to make quick decisions with the ball when he gets it.
They also compensate by trying to create mismatches with a small lineup, surrounding Evbuomwan with four guards. When they’re hitting shots, it reminds you a bit of Creighton’s 2019-20 “Death Lineup” that often forced opponents to bench their center and go small to combat it — when opposing post players couldn’t stay in front of their guards, or were constantly a half-step slow on closeouts around the perimeter, the only answer was to bring in a smaller, quicker player. Who does Kalkbrenner guard when that lineup is on the floor? Whoever it is, they’ll drag him away from the rim — exposing seams in CU’s defense, making them more susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds, and generally making their defense much less effective. We’ve seen it happen with opposing big men who have the ability to shoot threes, and seen the unfavorable results for the Jays. How CU combats that small lineup could go a long way toward deciding the game.
One way could simply be to do everything you can to take advantage of the mismatch a small lineup creates for Princeton defensively — think lobs to the rim when you get transition opportunities, or pick-and-rolls to get Kalkbrenner the ball right at the rim where he can score before Princeton can react. A small lineup can cut both ways if the team playing “bigger” has an elite big man, and Kalkbrenner is that. If he’s consistently making easy baskets at the rim, or getting Princeton’s defenders in foul trouble as they attempt to stop him, they could be forced to abandon their small lineup.
The other way is to simply try to outscore them, and the Tigers aren’t very good — even when their small lineup is on the floor — at stopping dribble drives into the paint. They don’t have elite shot blockers at the rim once you get there, either. They could be susceptible to the kinds of drives that Ryan Nembhard used against Baylor’s defense. They’re also likely to give the Jays open looks on the perimeter, simply because of the traps and extra attention they’ll pay to Kalkbrenner. CU will need to shoot closer to their 11-of-24 line from three-point range against Baylor than the 3-of-20 line they had against NC State.
With that said, the small lineup works best when Princeton is hitting their threes. 41% of their shots this season came from behind the arc, and they made 33.4%. They were 4-of-25 on threes against Arizona, and 12-of-33 against Missouri. The difference between those two performances? Missouri’s undisciplined defense left them wide open an awful lot, and Princeton’s shooters didn’t miss. Arizona made their shots tougher, and they missed.
That’s where having five days of preparation could be key for the Jays. With a full week to watch film, Arizona had a plan, executed it, built a double-digit lead and if not for a series of mistakes down the stretch, might well have advanced. With one day to prepare, Missouri looked they rolled the ball out and tried to let talent win the day.
That won’t be the case for the Jays.
“We couldn’t hold Arizona under 80 points in Maui, and they held them to 55,” McDermott said. “That’s all we need to know, because we know how good and talented Arizona is on the offensive end of the floor.”
If you give McDermott and his staff a week to break down film and prepare a gameplan, they’re as good as anyone in college basketball at devising and implementing ways to beat you. Can the players execute? And can they pivot to whatever adjustments Princeton makes in-game?
If they do, the Final Four will be just one win away. If not, they’ll be on an early Saturday morning flight back to Omaha to begin the offseason.
- Tip: Approx. 8:00pm
- Venue: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
- TV: TBS
- Announcers: Ian Eagle, Jim Spanarkel and Evan Washburn
- In Omaha: Cox channel 27/1027
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 247, Dish Network channel 139
- Streaming here
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- Streaming on The Varsity Network app, Powered by Learfield
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Tom McCarthy and Jordan Cornette
- Simulcast on SiriusXM Sirius channel 133 or 201
- The Tigers are just the fourth 15-seed to advance this far into the tourney, and their 15-point win over Missouri is the largest margin of victory for a 15-seed in NCAA Tournament history.
- The Tigers’ win over Missouri was the first win by an Ivy school over an SEC school in the men’s NCAA Tournament since 1942. Since the round began in 1975, Princeton is the fourth Ivy school to advance to the Sweet 16. The other schools are Cornell in 2010, along with Pennsylvania in 1979 and 1978.
- Mitch Henderson has been either the point guard or head coach for all four Princeton men’s NCAA Tournament wins since 1985. Along with coaching the Tigers to a pair of NCAA Tournament wins in 2023, he played on teams that beat UNLV in 1998 and UCLA in 1996.
- In 36 NCAA or NIT appearances, Creighton has won consecutive games in the same event just four times, with that happening in the 2016 and 2019 NIT’s, as well as the 2021 and 2023 NCAA Tournaments. The Jays have never won three straight NCAA Tournament games.
- Creighton is one of just eight teams to have reached at least two of the last three Sweet 16s. Gonzaga, Houston and UCLA have done it each of the last three seasons, while Alabama, Creighton, Michigan and Villanova have done it twice each.
- This year’s bid to the NCAA Tournament is the 11th postseason bid for Greg McDermott at Creighton. Only Dana Altman (13) has taken the Bluejays to more postseason appearances in men’s basketball. McDermott’s eight NCAA Tournament wins are a school record, more than double second-place John J. “Red” McManus (3). McDermott’s eight NCAA Tournament trips are the most in program history as well, one more than what Altman did. McDermott’s 16 postseason wins at Creighton are the most in school history, more than doubling Altman’s seven.
Creighton is 1-0 all-time against Princeton, defeating the Tigers 63-54 in Omaha on Dec. 29, 1961.
On that night, in front of the second-largest CU home crowd ever at the time (6,117), Paul Silas had 17 points and 18 rebounds but fouled out with 9:37 left, while teammate Ed Hubbard added 16 points and nine rebounds. Princeton was paced by 21 points form Al Kaemmerlen.
Greg McDermott has never faced Princeton but is 2-0 against teams from the Ivy League, having defeated Yale (2017) and Brown (2021).
Turner Sports and CBS Sports’ joint coverage of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship will include the return of NCAA March Madness Confidential, providing exclusive, behind-the-scenes access to six NCAA Tournament teams, including Creighton. Production crews began embedding with the Bluejays on Selection Sunday and will chronicle their NCAA Tournament journeys. Here’s the segments so far:
The Bottom Line:
ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton an 89.2% chance of victory, and Las Vegas oddsmakers peg CU as 9.5 point favorites. KenPom predicts a 75-66 Bluejay win.
