As the 2025-26 season nears its conclusion, it’s clear that Creighton’s margin for error is razor thin. How thin? Nine of their 29 games have been decided by five points or less — fully one-third of their games. Six of them have been won or lost by one possession. And four have been by a single point.
They’re 5-4 in those games, 3-3 in the ones decided by a single possession, and 2-2 in the games decided by a single point.
And when the pendulum swings the other way? They’re 5-5 in games decided by 20 or more points. Everywhere you look, they’re equally likely to win or lose. And so it is that they enter the regular season’s final week at 14-15, basically a .500 team.
Speaking of margin for error, the Jays’ 72-71 loss to DePaul on Wednesday has left them needing to sweep the final two games to ensure a top-five seed and first round bye in the Big East Tournament. There’s other scenarios where it can still happen if they split the final two games, but not many realistic ones.
Greg McDermott said after Wednesday’s loss that the team had to show up to practice as hungry and ready to work as they’ve been all season. They’ve left themselves no alternative. Their only path to the postseason is winning the Big East Tournament, and as unlikely as that is, it becomes just about impossible if the task requires winning four games instead of three.
Since beating Creighton 93-88 on January 16, Providence is 4-6 and the Jays are 3-7. But while the Jays have lost two straight, the Friars have won two in a row — including a 94-84 win over Xavier.
In that January win, foul trouble and long scoring droughts played a role in CU’s loss, with the former fueling the latter. Creighton outscored Providence by seven in the 33 minutes Josh Dix played. The Friars made the most of the other seven minutes, outscoring CU by 12 without the Jays’ best defender on the floor.
The scoring droughts — 10-2 with the only two points on free throws to end the first half with Nik Graves and Dix on the bench, and 10-0 midway through the second half with Dix on the bench — sealed their loss. And when they switched to a 2-3 zone to slow Providence down, it led to being out of position for offensive boards, which Providence took advantage of.
Providence had a 15 point edge in extra possession points, 41-26. The Friars turned 10 Bluejay turnovers into 17 points, and rebounded 44.2% of their missed shots, converting 19 offensive rebounds into 24 points. Providence’s Oswin Erhunmwunse had nine offensive boards by himself.
So while it goes without saying, it’s worth reiterating anyway: Dix has to stay on the floor in this one for CU to win. In 29 games (and counting) he’s proven himself to be their best defender and most indispensable player.
Jaylin Sellers leads the Friars in scoring at 17.7 points per game, second in the league. He’s coming off dropping 27 against Xavier, making 6-of-8 from two and 4-of-6 from three. But he had just four points in the first meeting, missing all seven of his shot attempts and making 4-of-4 from the line.
Jason Edwards is second in scoring at 17.6 points per game. After missing eight games with a foot injury, including the first meeting this year, he immediately made an impact and put up 24 points in their last outing.
Oswin Erhunmwunse (7.5 points, 8.4 rebounds) is one of the most imposing big men in the league. He leads the Big East in blocked shots (2.3 BPG) and just posted a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double. And he had 14 points and 13 rebounds (nine offensive) in the first meeting.
Also averaging in double figures are Jamier James (12.3 points, 4.6 rebounds) and Stefan Vaaks (15.7 points, 3.2 assists per game).
The key to this one will be whose strength wins out: Providence’s explosive perimeter scoring (Sellers/Edwards) against Creighton’s ability to execute their half-court offense and get stops at home. If the Bluejays get cold from beyond the arc like they did against St. John’s, Providence has the firepower to run away with it.
Senior Day 2026 is a bit different from most years, as both seniors are transfers that will play just one season at Creighton.
“We’ve had a lot of good point guards come in here,” McDermott said. “Most of them came in to teams that were already established. Nik had to try to lead a team of a bunch of new guys. And everything Josh has been through has been well documented. It’s been a hard year for him, but he keeps showing up and keeps playing and takes tremendous pride in wearing that jersey. So I want senior day to be special for them. You make it super special by making sure you get a victory and, you know, we’re also fighting to try to stay out of that Wednesday game and, you know, we got some teams right on our heels now — and one of them is coming here on Saturday.”
It could also be the final home game for McDermott, depending on whether he decides to retire this summer or next. There’s no real indication which way he’s leaning, but the distinct possibility exists that Saturday will be Mac’s final game at CHI.
Tip: 4:30pm
Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
TV: TNT
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Grant Hill and Andy Katz
In Omaha: Cox channel 36
Satellite: DirecTV channel 246, Dish Network channel 138
Streaming on HBO Max
Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
Announcers: John Bishop and Tyler Clement
Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 390 as well as on the SiriusXM App
Live Stats:
Follow along on Stat Broadcast
6’8” backup forward Duncan Powell is serving the third of a three game suspension for his role in last weekend’s brawl with St. John’s.
Providence ranks 355th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 84.7 points per game. That includes the 88 it allowed at home to Creighton on January 16th. PC’s 84.7 points allowed per game would be the most ever by a Big East team, passing the 83.0 allowed by Pittsburgh in 1989-90
Providence has scored 87.1 points per game, which ranks 14th-most nationally. The Friars are on pace to score the second-most points per game ever by any Big East team, trailing only the 89.7 points per game by a 30-8 Syracuse team in 1988-89.
Creighton is 27-3 in the last 30 years in its final home game of the regular-season, losing only in 2002 to Drake (when it had no seniors), in 2015 in the final seconds to Xavier, and in 2022 to Seton Hall by five points
Creighton has finished with a .500 mark or better in league play 29 times in the previous 30 seasons, one of six schools nationally that can say that. They’ll need to win out to keep that stat alive.
In addition to managers Billy Brezonik and Patrick Gorman, Creighton will honor Nik Graves and Josh Dix, following Saturday’s game as part of Senior Day festivities
Providence leads the all-time series 22-17, but Creighton owns a 9-6 advantage in Omaha. Since the Jays joined PC in the Big East in 2013, the Friars have won 16-of-29 contests at all sites, which includes a 93-88 victory in Rhode Island last month. Last season Creighton beat PC twice in the regular-season for just the second time, and first time since 2018-19.
On February 28, 2009, Creighton beat Illinois State 74-70 on the final day of the regular season to clinch a share of the MVC regular season title. The Redbirds, led by Osiris Eldridge, had beaten the Bluejays four straight times, including an 86-64 thumping in Normal on January 3 of that season. Booker Woodfox and P’Allen Stinnett both scored 20 points in the game, and Woodfox went a perfect 4-4 from the free throw line in the final 17 seconds to secure the win.
It was their tenth straight win, moving them to 14-4 in the league and 25-6 overall, and sent them to Arch Madness as the #2 seed after losing the tiebreaker to co-champion Northern Iowa. They’d blow a huge lead to Wichita State in the quarterfinals only to be saved by Woodfox on a buzzer-beater, and then be blown out by the Redbirds in the semis 73-49 to banish them to the NIT despite their regular season accomplishments.
Creighton is favored by 2.5 in Vegas, and has 60.2% odds of victory according to ESPN’s BPI. KenPom predicts a two-point Jays win with 57% probability.
Jays 79, Friars 76