After four buy games that Creighton won by an average of 24.25 points, the non-conference schedule shifts into another gear Friday night when Nebraska visits. Though they were picked in the bottom-third of the preseason Big Ten poll — tied for 12th out of 18 teams — in-state rivalry games are always hotly contested, and Nebraska’s a talented team that could be NCAA Tournament-quality by March.
Dynamic scoring guard Keisei Tominaga is gone. And star big man Rienk Mast (12.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game with six double-doubles) is out after season-ending knee surgery. Those key losses are what’s driving the 12th place prediction — despite returning six key rotational pieces including Brice Williams and Juwan Gary, they’re sort of reloading on the fly around them (much like Creighton is doing around Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth). But there’s pieces to be a competitive team.
Greg McDermott said Nebraska’s physicality is what stands out to him from watching film. “Their scoring at the rim has been a challenge for the teams that have played against them, and they’ve really done a good job of getting to the free throw line,” McDermott said this week. “Guarding without fouling is going to be really important to us.”
Fortunately, that plays right into one of Creighton’s biggest strengths: the presence of the three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner. Through four games, their opponents have scored just 9.8% of their points at the line — second fewest in all of D1. A year ago, it was 12.0% and third-fewest in D1. Two years ago, it was 13.2%, the fifth-fewest. Teams who try to make a living off of drawing fouls and hitting free throws generally struggle to do either of those things against CU — and often struggle to score as a result.
Contrast that to Nebraska’s offense, which has gotten 30.3% of their total points on free throws this year (6th most in D1). Last year’s matchup saw Nebraska make 10-of-14 from the line — they had just six games where they attempted fewer free throws, and seven where they made fewer of them.
Berke Büyüktuncel has 10 at the line and 29 from the floor. Andrew Morgan has scored 13 points at the line in four games…and 15 from everywhere else. Brice Williams has 31 points at the line and 44 from the field. Juwan Gary has scored 15 on free throws and 27 from the field. It’s a significant part of their offense. If Creighton is able to defend as they typically do without fouling, can Nebraska make enough shots to compensate?
On the other end, how Nebraska opts to defend Ryan Kalkbrenner will drive a lot of other decisions in this game, for both teams. Defending him one-on-one with players who are 3-4 inches shorter is a tough way to live, so will Nebraska try to defend him straight up, let him score 25, and hope to hold everyone else in check? Do they go big and make up for the lack of a dominant post player by throwing, say, 6’10” Berke Büyüktuncel and 7’1” Braxton Meah on the floor together? Or bring double-teams and help-side defenders to limit his shot attempts, knowing it will lead to open shots on the perimeter for someone else?
The latter is (mostly) how Nebraska defended him the last two years. In 2022, it succeeded — Creighton shot 10-of-40 from three and lost by 10. In 2023, they made 14-of-40 and won by 29.
What changed is CU’s efficiency at the rim. In 2022, the Jays made 10-of-25 on two-pointers and 8-of-15 at the rim. In ’23, they were 18-of-29 on twos and 15-of-19 at the rim. But with Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander off to the NBA, someone else is going to need to get into the paint and hit shots for that strategy to succeed — or they’re going to need to be more efficient from three than they were the last two years in this matchup.
The downside to going big, if you’re Nebraska, is the prospect of their taller guys chasing smaller, speedier Bluejays around the perimeter and in transition. Who can better exploit the mismatch has an advantage.
McDermott joked that he’s not entirely sure the height discrepancy is accurate.
“I don’t know if they measure those guys on stilts or what, but (Steven) Ashworth played with Rollie Worster at Utah State and, uh, I don’t think he’s 6’5”,” he said laughing. (For the record, Worster was listed as 6’3” at Utah State and 6’4” at Utah; Nebraska lists him at 6’5”.)
“But you know, most teams we play are going to be bigger than us across across the guard court, so we have to use our speed,” McDermott said. “That’s a deciding factor for us…we have to be able to attack quick and put pressure on the defense as quickly as we possibly can.”
To that end, Nebraska has been loose with the ball through four games, turning it over 54 times. Against Saint Mary’s, they committed a turnover on 23.1% of their possessions; against Bethune Cookman, they turned it over on 24.3% of their possessions. Neither team is especially active at creating turnovers or steals — much like Creighton. It was more a case of the Huskers making poor decisions or being sloppy with the ball. Creighton needs to turn those kind of mistakes into transition baskets.
It’s strange that over four games, Creighton and Nebraska already have two shared opponents, but it’s true — both squads have played, and beaten, UTRGV and FDU. If you’re into margin of victory, Nebraska beat UTRGV 87-67 while CU won 99-86; both teams beat FDU by 26, with Nebraska winning 86-60 and CU winning 96-70.
Individually, Brice Williams leads the Huskers in scoring at 18.8 points per game. He scored 27 against Saint Mary’s (on 8-of-12 shooting and 11-of-11 from the line) and 28 against UTRGV (on 8-of-18 shooting and 10-of-11 from the line) — and had 10 each against FDU and Bethune Cookman, making 4-of-15 combined in the two games. He scored six a year ago against Creighton, making 3-of-7 from the floor. Notably, he attempted zero free throws.
Juwan Gary is second in scoring at 10.5 points per game, and also averages 2.5 steals. He battled foul trouble against Saint Mary’s, finishing with three points, four boards and two steals. But against FDU, he scored 19 and had a career-high five assists. And in the game against Bethune Cookman, he led the team in points (11), rebounds (nine) and steals (five). Gary had 16 double-figure games in 2023-24, including a trio of 20-point efforts, and had five double-doubles highlighted by a 13-point, 18-board effort at Kansas State. The game against CU was not one of them. He scored eight points with one rebound and one assist in 24 minutes, making 4-of-7 from the floor but — stop me if you’ve heard this before — attempting zero free throws.
Point guard Rollie Worster is also averaging in double figures at 10.3 points per game. He’s scored in double figures twice this season, including 10 points and three boards vs. Saint Mary’s. Worster nearly had a double-double vs. UTRGV with 18 points, nine rebounds and four steals. Prior to a season-ending injury last year at Utah, Worster had been averaging 9.9 points, 5.5 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game, and was third in the Pac-12 in assists and leading conf. in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.93-to-1).
Berke Büyüktuncel, a 6’10” transfer from UCLA, is averaging 9.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. He scored 13 second half points against Saint Mary’s, nearly helping Nebraska escape with the win.
7’1” Braxton Meah has struggled so far in four games since transferring from Washington, and missed the FDU game with an injury. He started and played 21 minutes earlier this week against Saint Mary’s, though he did not score and took only one shot — and had just three rebounds with three turnovers. He averaged 5.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game at UW a year ago, leading them in field goal percentage (.770) and blocked shots (27). But his struggles this year have led to a platoon of sorts in the middle, with Büyüktuncel and Andrew Morgan splitting time equally with Meah. (Literally: KenPom says Morgan has played 33% of the minutes at the ‘5’, Meah has played 32%, and Büyüktuncel 31%.)
It’s a great early-season measuring stick to see how much the Jays have improved since they took down the Big Ten preseason favorite, Purdue, 93-87, in an exhibition game a month ago — and an important one, because from here, things get real in a hurry. The next three weeks feature games against #1 Kansas, at #8 Alabama, and #23 Texas A&M. And depending on how the first two games in Las Vegas go next week (versus A&M and perennial power San Diego State), they could play #7 Houston, #24 Rutgers — or an additional game against Alabama — in the third game of that tourney.
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Junior transfer Connor Essegian has given the Huskers a spark off the bench. The 6-foot-4 junior is averaging 9.3 ppg while shooting 35 percent from 3-point range. Essegian leads NU with seven 3-pointers and is now four 3-pointers away from reaching 100 for his career.
Nebraska is averaging 9.0 steals per game to rank fourth in the Big Ten as of Nov. 19. Juwan Gary (2.50, fourth), Rollie Worster (1.75, 15th) and Sam Hoiberg (1.75, 15th) all rank among the Big Ten leaders in that category. Gary had a career-best five steals against Bethune Cookman on Nov. 9, marking the ninth time a Husker has had at least five steals in a game under Fred Hoiberg.
In their 77-74 loss to Saint Mary’s, NU outshot the Gaels from the floor and enjoyed a 34-31 advantage on the glass, but 15 Husker turnovers led to 21 Gael points.
Creighton is allowing teams to shoot just 33.4 percent from the field and 63.8 points per game. In the last two games, CU has held Houston Christian to 43 points and 25.4 percent shooting before limiting Kansas City to 56 points on 29.3 percent marksmanship last Saturday. It’s the first time since 2014 that Creighton has allowed fewer than 100 combined points in consecutive games, and the first time since March of 2016 that CU has held back-to-back foes below 30 percent shooting from the floor.
Creighton has finished with more wins than Nebraska in 25 of the last 26 seasons since the 1998-99 campaign. Since the start of the 1998-99 season (including this winter), Creighton is 602-276 (.686), while Nebraska is 403-421 (.489) on the hardwood.
Creighton was ranked 14th in the Nov. 18 Associated Press Top 25 poll. It’s the 15th straight week the Bluejays have been ranked, the fourth-longest streak in program history and the nation’s 13th-longest active streak.
Creighton has won 20 of the past 25 regular-season match-ups, and leads the all-time series (including postseason) 30-27. Creighton has won 11 of the last 13 meetings, with 10 of those wins coming by double-digits.
Creighton’s 52-37 lead at the break last year was the ninth time in the last 25 regular-season meetings that they have had a double-digit halftime lead. Greg McDermott is 11-3 against Nebraska since taking the CU job, and his 11 wins are the most ever, breaking Dana Altman’s previous record of 10 wins. And McDermott’s 17 total wins over Nebraska (including six at Iowa State) are second only to DePaul, who he’s beaten 21 times.
Last year, they tied the largest margin of victory in the 57 game history of the series, winning 89-60 in Lincoln. Baylor Scheierman (24 points, 10 rebounds) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (13 points, 12 boards, 3 blocks) both had double-doubles in the win.
Two years ago on November 22, #10 Creighton defeated #9 Arkansas 90-87 in the semifinal of the Maui Invitational, an all-time thriller of a game where seemingly every play in the final 10 minutes was a momentum shifter.
The Bottom Line:
Vegas oddsmakers have Creighton as a 10.5 point favorites, and ESPN’s BPI gives the Jays 79.5% odds of victory. KenPom predicts an 11-point Bluejay win.
I think the Jays will pull away for a 15-point victory in this one.
Creighton 85, Nebraska 70