Entering the Big East opener on Wednesday night, Villanova and Creighton both have key players on the injury report. For the Jays, Ryan Kalkbrenner has been held out of practice after his ankle injury against Alabama; he’s officially listed as questionable, though most expect he’ll play. For Villanova, Justin Moore has missed time with a knee injury and was not a full participant in practice in the days leading up to this game either. And though Villanova’s 7-4 record looks pedestrian, their computer numbers are excellent by virtue of some huge wins.
“Their metrics are really good,” Greg McDermott said at his weekly press conference. “They’re a top 40 offensive and defensive team. People think we shoot a lot of 3s, but they shoot more 3s than we do.”
It’s true, though it’s a bit like splitting hairs; 49.8% of Creighton’s shots have been threes (6th most nationally) compared to 51.0% for Villanova (4th most). The big difference is Creighton has been much, much better at making those shots: the Jays are shooting 38.7% on threes (24th best in D1) and Villanova is 32.1% (217th).
It’s perhaps the biggest reason why they have losses to teams they have no business losing to, including to all three crosstown rivals (to Penn, 76-72; to Drexel, 57-55; and most galling, 78-65 to Saint Joseph’s.) It’s also perhaps the biggest reason they won the Battle 4 Atlantis with wins over three likely NCAA Tournament teams in Texas Tech, North Carolina and Memphis.
“We’re going to take our shots and live with it,” head coach Kyle Neptune said recently, a succinct, almost stubborn summation of their offensive strategy.
“When they haven’t shot it well, they’ve struggled; when they’ve shot it well, they built a 25-point lead against Memphis, they beat North Carolina, beat UCLA,” McDermott noted. “We have to get to their 3-point shooters but you also have to defend the rim. That sounds easy, but they grind you every possession. We’re going to defend for 25 seconds most every possession. They really try to control tempo, especially in this building, so we anticipate that as well.”
Last season, the Jays took two of three from Villanova. Both regular season games were among the slowest CU played all year — a 63-possession grinder in Omaha and a 62-possession rematch in Philadelphia were only eclipsed in slowness by the 60-possession rock fight with UConn on February 11.
As McDermott said, that’s the style of game we’re likely to see on Wednesday, too. Ratcheting up the tempo is tough against a team who turns it over as little as Villanova does — just 15.0% of their possessions end in a turnover so far this year, 45th best in the country. They had 18 total turnovers in those first two meetings a year ago. There just aren’t many opportunities to run in the open floor against them; in Omaha neither team had a single point in transition, a great illustration of just how slow the pace was.
CU managed to get the tempo a bit faster in the Big East Tourney, playing a comparatively-quick 70 possession game. But it wasn’t because they forced turnovers — VU had just seven in that one. It was because Creighton got stops defensively, and then grabbed 32 defensive rebounds. That will loom large again in this one.
“Across the board, they’ve got a lot of guys 6’3″ to 6’6″ that are physical guards with length and strength. They pound it on the offensive glass. It’s hard to get offensive rebounds. They don’t foul a lot. You really have to earn your baskets against Villanova because they’re not going to give you any,” McDermott said. “When you play Villanova, you have to beat them because they’re not they’re not going to beat themselves. They just don’t do that.”
Another opposing coach, Mick Cronin of UCLA, offered his own variation on that theme in an excellent deep-dive on Villanova published over the weekend in The Athletic. “One thing that doesn’t change with Villanova is their competitive fire, their toughness and their spirit. They teach you lessons. You better come to play.”
Eric Dixon leads the Wildcats in scoring with 13.6 points per game, and would be at the top of the scouting report regardless — but after the sustained success he had against the Jays’ drop coverage defense a year ago, he’ll get even more focus. The 6’8″ senior scored 71 points in three games against Creighton a year ago, and in Villanova’s win in Philadelphia he was red hot — he had a then-career high 31 points on 11-of-15 shooting, including 6-of-8 from three-point range. It only feels like he was that hot in the other two, though he was pretty good.
- 2/4/23 in Omaha: 20 pts, 7-of-18 overall (1-of-6 3FG), 5-of-6 FT
- 2/25/23 in Philadelphia: 31 pts, 11-of-15 overall (6-of-8 3FG), 3-of-3 FT
- 3/9/23 in NYC: 20 pts, 7-16 overall (3-of-7 3FG), 3-of-4 FT
On Dixon’s first three attempts (all makes) in the game in Philly, Ryan Kalkbrenner was nearly under the rim when he launched them. Once Kalkbrenner started paying more respect to Dixon’s shot when he roamed out to the perimeter, it took him away from the rim — and then the Jays’ guards were abused on the pick-and-roll by Justin Moore and on back-cuts by Cam Whitmore. The myriad of easy layups the Wildcats got were the direct result of Kalkbrenner being pulled away from the rim, and their guards being unable to stop the ball-handler from getting downhill off the dribble. And when they re-adjusted back to keep him near the rim, the Wildcats burned them on kick-outs to their other shooters.
Those same problems still present themselves, even with Whitmore off to the NBA and Moore potentially out due to injury. Guards TJ Bamba and Jordan Longino can both get downhill off the dribble and score, especially if Kalkbrenner isn’t waiting for them at the rim. So the emphasis they had in the game at MSG will be important: making sure Kalkbrenner and Fredrick King don’t get caught in-between when Dixon roams out to the perimeter.
Moore sprained his knee against Kansas State two weeks ago and has been out ever since. He’s their second-leading scorer at 13.3 points per game, and provides a good stylistic counter to Dixon. If he’s still out, junior Jordan Longino will likely start again in his place. Over the past three games the 6’5″ Longino has averaged 12.7 points per game, raising his average to 9.5 points per outing on the season.
To compliment the veteran duo of Dixon and Moore, Villanova went into the transfer portal and added four players they expected to make immediate impacts. Instead, there’s been the usual ups-and-downs from new players learning a new system — which is the opposite of the typical Villanova team of years past that was a well-oiled machine.
One addition, T.J. Bamba from Washington State, has struggled to fit into their offensive scheme. At WSU a year ago, he was more of a slashing guard; roughly 30% of his shots were threes for the Cougars. This year his shot selection is almost 50/50 between 2’s and 3’s, which is a problem for a player who isn’t a great outside shooter (he’s made 14-of-44 so far this year, 31%).
Other additions have fared similarly. Tyler Burton transferred from Richmond where he was a heavy-usage shooter; adjusting to a smaller role, he’s been inconsistent. A year ago he made 153-of-275 inside the arc (55.6%); this year he’s taken just 31 shots inside, and made 13 (41%). Expected to light it up from three, he’s instead made no more than two 3’s in a game this year.
And 6’8″ Hakim Hart, a transfer from Maryland, has also seen his usage drop precipitously. He took nearly nine shots per game for the Terps, and is averaging around 4.5 this year. So while his percentages look similar, his production is significantly less.
Still, it’s Villanova, and the style of play — if not the results — are the same as always.
“It will be a lot of bully-ball and shot fakes,” Baylor Scheierman said. “They’re tough on defense; they like to switch a lot of ball screens one through five. Obviously playing them last year, I kind of know what to expect.”
After going 9-2 in their non-conference slate, Creighton enters Big East play in a great spot. They’re #9 in the NCAA’s NET ranking, #10 in KenPom, #16 in Haslametrics, and #7 in T-Rank. T-Rank’s TeamCast tool projects a 14-6 conference record and a ‘2’ seed in the tourney; KenPom predicts the same record. Haslametrics projects a 16-4 record with two losses to UConn, plus road losses at Marquette and at Villanova. In other words, the computers love them.
“They’re all big games now,” McDermott said. “You kind of wipe your non-conference schedule away and you hope you’ve done enough. Our KenPom numbers, our NET is really good after the non-conference schedule and that’s where you hope to be. Obviously we stubbed our toe a few times, but we had two teams play really well against us on those nights when we didn’t have our ‘A’ game.”
- Tip: 8:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Bill Raftery
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- The 70-point threshold has been a key indicator for Villanova in recent seasons and remains so early in 2023-24. This season, Villanova is 6-1 when holding foes below the 70-point threshold. Another key? Free throws. The ‘Cats began the week atop the NCAA Free Throw Percentage list at 81.7%. The ‘Cats are 6-2 (75.0%) this season when attempting 15 or more at the line.
- This marks the second time in three seasons Villanova has kicked off the Big East regular season against the Bluejays in Omaha. Creighton downed VU 79-59 on Dec. 17, 2021, dropping the ‘Cats record at the time to 7-4. That Villanova team would ultimately finish 30-8 and advance to the NCAA Final Four in New Orleans.
- This is Villanova’s first game action since it downed UCLA 65-56 on Dec. 9 at the Wells Fargo Center (exam week). It plans to remain in Omaha after this game before flying to Chicago Thursday for its Saturday matchup with DePaul.
- Since 2013-14, Villanova leads the nation in made three-pointers with 3,424 trifectas, while Creighton is fourth with 3,196. Creighton is 1-14 all-time when making eight three-pointers or less against Villanova (including three meetings in the 1950’s long before the 3-point line existed), but 7-4 when making nine or more trifectas. CU has hit 93-of-199 treys (46.7%) in the eight wins, but 99-of-362 triples (27.3%) in the 18 losses.
- Creighton owns more Big East wins (53) than any other school in the previous four seasons, three more than Villanova’s 50. Since the league’s 2013 realignment, Villanova has 140 league wins to lead the Big East by a wide margin, but Creighton’s 109 league victories are second-most.
- Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Villanova has suffered only 74 losses, with just 13 of those coming by 15 points or more. Five of those lopsided setbacks have come against Creighton, while eight other teams have done it once each.
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 18-8. Creighton has won the last three meetings in Omaha to tie the series in 10 home games. Seven of the last nine meetings at all sites have been decided by double-figures, with CU winning five of those games.
CU won 87-74 in the quarterfinals of last year’s Big East Tournament, with Ryan Kalkbrenner (21 points on 9-of-12 shooting) and Baylor Scheierman (12 points, 12 rebounds, 9 assists) having giant games.
The Bottom Line:
Creighton is favored by 9.5 in Vegas, but KenPom predicts a closer game (73-67). ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton 85.3% odds of victory.
I’d put that percentage higher. It’s Doug McDermott Night with his #3 being retired into the rafters of CHI Health Center in a pregame ceremony, with many of his teammates returning for the ceremony. The Jays will not lose on Doug McDermott Night.
Creighton 75, Villanova 65